diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 1bc06716b7c6563842f31ed27e3d79926ca24e50..bc63b2457c4329b0ff0c018f5ea3f501f41b4ef1 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -70,8 +70,6 @@
PARAMETER otherIParam(crop, location) yield response to other intensity;
PARAMETER prodCost(crop) cost per ha before intensity values not including fertiliser or irrigation i.e. seed spray and other. In 1000 $ per ha;
PARAMETER animalProdCost(animal) cost per unit produced;
- PARAMETER feedCostCalib(feed_crop) additional feed cost for feed mix calibration;
- PARAMETER costCalibFactor(all_types);
PARAMETER previousProduction(all_types);
SCALAR meatEfficency efficiency of converting feed and pasture into animal products;
@@ -95,7 +93,7 @@
SCALAR discountRate;
SCALAR energyPrice;
-*$gdxin "~/Documents/PLUM_Output/calib_forest/GamsTmp/China2020landuse.gdx"
+*$gdxin "/Users/bart/Documents/PLUM_Output/calib/GamsTmp/Brazil2020landuse.gdx"
$gdxin %gdxincname%
$load location, suitableLandArea, demand
$load previousCropArea, previousFertIntensity, previousIrrigIntensity, previousOtherIntensity, previousRuminantFeed, previousMonogastricFeed, previousImportAmount, previousExportAmount
@@ -105,11 +103,11 @@ $load meatEfficency, otherICost, irrigCost, irrigConstraint, irrigMaxRate, ferti
$load previousLandCoverArea, carbonCreditRate, conversionCost, woodYieldMaxParam, woodYieldSlopeParam, woodYieldShapeParam, tradeAdjustmentCostRate
$load forestManagementCost, carbonForestMaxProportion, previousRotationIntensity, maxLandCoverChange, maxLandCoverArea
$load fertLimRestricted, irrigLimRestricted, otherLimRestricted, fertLimConventional, irrigLimConventional, otherLimConventional
-$load solarEnergyDensity, agrivoltaicsYieldFactor, prodCost, animalProdCost, feedCostCalib, solarNpvRate
-$load discountRate, energyPrice, monoculturePenalty, agrivoltaicsCropCostFactor, costCalibFactor, previousProduction, pastureIntensityPenalty
+$load solarEnergyDensity, agrivoltaicsYieldFactor, prodCost, animalProdCost, solarNpvRate
+$load discountRate, energyPrice, monoculturePenalty, agrivoltaicsCropCostFactor, previousProduction, pastureIntensityPenalty
$gdxin
- SCALAR delta "use to smooth power function see 7.5 www.gams.com dd docs solversconopt.pdf" / 0.00000000001 /;
+ SCALAR delta / 1e-6 /;
PARAMETER cropDM(crop) kg DM per kg of feed the conversion from feed to meat is done in the R animal product index. Pasture is in DM terms already
/ wheat 0.87
@@ -137,8 +135,8 @@ $gdxin
previousFeedAmount('monogastrics', feed_crop) = previousMonogastricFeed(feed_crop);
PARAMETER feedDiversityCost(animal)
- / monogastrics = 0.03
- ruminants = 0.06 /;
+ / monogastrics = 0.04
+ ruminants = 0.05 /;
VARIABLES
unitCost(crop, farming_type, location) cost per area for each crop - cost
@@ -158,6 +156,7 @@ $gdxin
netImportIncrease(import_types)
netImportDecrease(import_types)
excessImports(import_types)
+ importFraction(all_types)
landCoverArea(land_cover, protection, location) land cover area in Mha
landCoverChange(land_cover_before, land_cover_after, protection, location) land cover change in Mha
@@ -167,7 +166,6 @@ $gdxin
rotationIntensity(location) equivalent to 1 divided by rotation period
woodSupply total wood supply - million m3
forestryNPV(location) NPV of wood production
- woodPriceFactor(location)
carbonCredits(location) carbon credits generated - Mt C
@@ -176,7 +174,7 @@ $gdxin
;
- POSITIVE VARIABLE cropArea, fertI, irrigI, otherIntensity, yield, feedAmount, importAmount, exportAmount, woodPriceFactor, cropProduction, excessImports,
+ POSITIVE VARIABLE cropArea, fertI, irrigI, otherIntensity, yield, feedAmount, importAmount, exportAmount, cropProduction, excessImports, importFraction,
landCoverArea, landCoverChange, woodYieldRota, rotationIntensity, woodSupply, totalProduction, netImportIncrease, netImportDecrease;
@@ -197,6 +195,7 @@ $gdxin
MIN_NET_IMPORT_CONSTRAINT(import_types)
MAX_NET_IMPORT_CONSTRAINT(import_types)
NET_IMPORTS_CHANGE_CALC(import_types)
+ IMPORT_FRACTION_CALC(all_types) fraction of supply that is imported
SETASIDE_AREA_CALC(farming_type, location) setaside area constraint
CROPLAND_LAND_COVER_CALC(protection, farming_type, location) cropland area equals sum of all crop areas
@@ -210,8 +209,7 @@ $gdxin
WOOD_YIELD_CALC(location) wood yield at rotation - tC per ha
WOOD_SUPPLY_CALC wood supply calculation
WOOD_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT wood demand constraint
- FORESTRY_NPV_CALC(location) net present value of wood production (Faustmann's formula)
- WOOD_PRICE_FACTOR_CALC(location) price multiplier based on tree age (older trees more valuable)
+ FORESTRY_NPV_CALC(location) net present value of wood production (Faustmann's formula)
PV_ENERGY_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT energy produced from photovoltaics
AV_ENERGY_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT energy produced from agrivoltaics
@@ -324,10 +322,7 @@ $gdxin
WOOD_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. woodSupply =E= demand('wood') + exportAmount('wood') - importAmount('wood');
-* Mature trees more valuable. Encourages longer rotation periods.
- WOOD_PRICE_FACTOR_CALC(location) .. woodPriceFactor(location) =E= 1 - exp(-0.023 / rotationIntensity(location));
-
- FORESTRY_NPV_CALC(location) .. forestryNPV(location) =E= (woodPriceFactor(location) * exportPrices('wood') * woodYieldRota(location) - forestManagementCost) * rotationIntensity(location);
+ FORESTRY_NPV_CALC(location) .. forestryNPV(location) =E= (exportPrices('wood') * woodYieldRota(location) - forestManagementCost) * rotationIntensity(location);
*********** Carbon ***********************************
@@ -353,6 +348,8 @@ $gdxin
NET_IMPORTS_CHANGE_CALC(import_types) .. netImportIncrease(import_types) - netImportDecrease(import_types) =E= netImportAmount(import_types) - previousNetImport(import_types);
+ IMPORT_FRACTION_CALC(all_types) .. importFraction(all_types) =E= importAmount(all_types) / (importAmount(all_types) + totalProduction(all_types) + delta);
+
* No imports or exports of pasture allowed
importAmount.FX('pasture') = 0;
exportAmount.FX('pasture') = 0;
@@ -360,18 +357,20 @@ $gdxin
* Allow solar energy import in case cannot produce enough domestically.
maxNetImport('energyPV') = demand('energyPV');
maxNetImport('energyAV') = demand('energyAV');
+ importPrices('energyPV') = 1000;
+ importPrices('energyAV') = 1000;
************ Total Net Present Value ******************************
NPV_CALC .. total_npv =E=
-* Value of crop and animal production minus feed used
- sum(agri_types, totalProduction(agri_types) * exportPrices(agri_types))
+* Value of crop and animal production minus domestically produced feed used
+ sum(agri_types, exportPrices(agri_types) * (totalProduction(agri_types) - sum(animal, feedAmount(animal, agri_types)) * (1 - importFraction(agri_types))))
* Cost of crop production
- sum((crop, farming_type, location), cropArea(crop, farming_type, location) * unitCost(crop, farming_type, location) * (1 - subsidyRate(crop)))
* Cost of animal production
- sum(animal, animalProdCost(animal) * totalProduction(animal) * (1 - subsidyRate(animal)))
-* Cost of feed
- - sum((animal, feed_crop_less_pasture), feedAmount(animal, feed_crop_less_pasture) * importPrices(feed_crop_less_pasture))
+* Cost of feed imports
+ - sum((animal, import_types), importPrices(import_types) * feedAmount(animal, import_types) * importFraction(import_types))
* NPV of wood production
+ sum(location, forestryNPV(location) * landCoverArea('timberForest', 'unprotected', location))
* NPV of solar energy
@@ -385,17 +384,15 @@ $gdxin
* Crop monoculture penalty. Derived from Simpson's diversity index, weighted by production
- sum(location, monoculturePenalty * sum(crop_less_pasture_setaside, sqr(cropProduction(crop_less_pasture_setaside, location))) / (sum(crop_less_pasture_setaside, cropProduction(crop_less_pasture_setaside, location)) + 0.01))
* Pasture intensity penalty. Controls how spread out pasture production is.
- - sum(location, pastureIntensityPenalty * sqr(cropProduction('pasture', location))) / (sum(location, cropProduction('pasture', location)) + 0.01)
+ - sum(location, pastureIntensityPenalty * sqr(cropProduction('pasture', location))) / (sum(location, cropProduction('pasture', location)) + delta)
* Small reward for increasing natural area to allow land abandonment
+ sum((land_cover, protection, location)$(not sameAs(land_cover, 'natural')), 0.00001 * landCoverChange(land_cover, 'natural', protection, location))
* Feed diversity penalty
- - sum(animal, feedDiversityCost(animal) * sum(feed_crop, sqr(feedAmount(animal, feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop))) / (sum(feed_crop, feedAmount(animal, feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop)) + 0.01))
+ - sum(animal, feedDiversityCost(animal) * sum(feed_crop, sqr(feedAmount(animal, feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop))) / (sum(feed_crop, feedAmount(animal, feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop)) + delta))
* Net import change cost
- sum(import_types, tradeAdjustmentCostRate(import_types) * (netImportIncrease(import_types) + netImportDecrease(import_types)))
* Allow import constraint to be relaxed at a high cost if needed to avoid solution failture
- sum(import_types, 1000 * excessImports(import_types))
-* Allow energy imports if cannot produce domestically
- - 1000 * (importAmount('energyPV') + importAmount('energyAV'))
;
MODEL LAND_USE / ALL / ;
@@ -435,7 +432,7 @@ $gdxin
parameter totalProdCost(all_types);
parameter totalCropArea(crop);
parameter netImportCost(all_types);
- parameter importFraction(all_types);
+* parameter importFraction(all_types);
parameter prodCostRate(crop);
parameter productionShock(all_types);
parameter woodProdCost;
@@ -448,12 +445,12 @@ $gdxin
netImportCost(import_types) = importAmount.L(import_types) * importPrices(import_types) - exportAmount.l(import_types) * exportPrices(import_types);
- importFraction(import_types) $ (importAmount.l(import_types) > 0) = importAmount.l(import_types) / (totalProduction.l(import_types) + importAmount.l(import_types));
+* importFraction(import_types) $ (importAmount.l(import_types) > 0) = importAmount.l(import_types) / (totalProduction.l(import_types) + importAmount.l(import_types));
prodCostRate(crop)$[totalProduction.l(crop) <> 0] = totalProdCost(crop) / totalProduction.l(crop);
- totalProdCost(animal) = sum(feed_crop, importFraction(feed_crop) * feedAmount.l(animal, feed_crop) * importPrices(feed_crop)
- + (1 - importFraction(feed_crop)) * prodCostRate(feed_crop)) + totalProduction.l(animal) * animalProdCost(animal);
+ totalProdCost(animal) = sum(feed_crop, importFraction.l(feed_crop) * feedAmount.l(animal, feed_crop) * importPrices(feed_crop)
+ + (1 - importFraction.l(feed_crop)) * prodCostRate(feed_crop)) + totalProduction.l(animal) * animalProdCost(animal);
If(woodSupply.L > 0,
woodProdCost = sum(location, forestManagementCost * rotationIntensity.L(location) * landCoverArea.L('timberForest', 'unprotected', location));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 707278726b1dd14f0d61bd3c8208e996754adab6..e432aa5690fa57c6ae77798d40474946369553ed 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -280,19 +280,19 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double INITIAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("INITIAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG", 0.176);
public static final double INITIAL_PRICE_SUGAR = getDoubleProperty("INITIAL_PRICE_SUGAR", 0.046);
- public static final double PROD_COST_WHEAT = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_WHEAT", 0.25);
+ public static final double PROD_COST_WHEAT = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_WHEAT", 0.3);
public static final double PROD_COST_MAIZE = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_MAIZE", 0.3);
public static final double PROD_COST_RICE = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_RICE", 0.8);
public static final double PROD_COST_OILCROPS_NFIX = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_OILCROPS_NFIX", 0.4);
- public static final double PROD_COST_OILCROPS_OTHER = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_OILCROPS_OTHER", 0.4);
+ public static final double PROD_COST_OILCROPS_OTHER = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_OILCROPS_OTHER", 0.6);
public static final double PROD_COST_PULSES = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_PULSES", 0.6);
- public static final double PROD_COST_STARCHYROOTS = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_STARCHYROOTS", 2.5);
+ public static final double PROD_COST_STARCHYROOTS = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_STARCHYROOTS", 3.0);
public static final double PROD_COST_MONOGASTRICS = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_MONOGASTRICS", 0.03);
public static final double PROD_COST_RUMINANTS = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_RUMINANTS", 0.05);
public static final double PROD_COST_PASTURE = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_PASTURE", 0.1);
public static final double PROD_COST_ENERGYCROPS = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_ENERGYCROPS", 0.3);
public static final double PROD_COST_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_FRUITVEG", 8.0);
- public static final double PROD_COST_SUGAR = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_SUGAR", 4.0);
+ public static final double PROD_COST_SUGAR = getDoubleProperty("PROD_COST_SUGAR", 3.0);
// These are initial demand system prices in 2000 kcal terms
@@ -449,7 +449,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double SOLAR_CONVERSION_COST = getDoubleProperty("SOLAR_CONVERSION_COST", 10.0);
public static final double NATURAL_CONVERSION_COST = getDoubleProperty("NATURAL_CONVERSION_COST", 0.12);
// controls additional cost of natural conversion. Higher cost if higher proportion of land is natural
- public static final double INFRASTRUCTURE_COST_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("INFRASTRUCTURE_COST_FACTOR", 0.4);
+ public static final double INFRASTRUCTURE_COST_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("INFRASTRUCTURE_COST_FACTOR", 0.6);
public static final double TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.002);
@@ -560,14 +560,14 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String MIN_MAX_TRADE_FILE = getProperty("MIN_MAX_TRADE_FILE", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator + "minMaxNetImport.csv");
// Forestry
- public static final boolean IS_FORESTRY_ON = getBooleanProperty("IS_FORESTRY_ON", false);
+ public static final boolean IS_FORESTRY_ON = getBooleanProperty("IS_FORESTRY_ON", true);
public static final String WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME = getProperty("WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME", "wood_base_demand.csv");
public static final String WOOD_DEMAND_FILE = getProperty("WOOD_DEMAND_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME);
public static final double INIT_WOOD_STOCK = getDoubleProperty("INIT_WOOD_STOCK", 1200.0); // million m3
public static final double WOOD_BIOMASS_CONVERSION_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("WOOD_BIOMASS_CONVERSION_FACTOR", 0.3); // m3 to tC-eq p.16 [https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020]
public static final double FOREST_MANAGEMENT_COST = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("FOREST_MANAGEMENT_COST", 2.0) : 0.0; // establishment, management etc. $1000/ha
public static final double WOOD_TRADE_BARRIER = getDoubleProperty("WOOD_TRADE_BARRIER", 0.1); //$1000/m3
- public static final double INIT_WOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE", 0.05) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
+ public static final double INIT_WOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_WOOD_PRICE", 0.07) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
public static final int CARBON_WOOD_MAX_TIME = getIntProperty("CARBON_WOOD_MAX_TIME", 160); // upper data limit, years
// Carbon
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index 5de56df63221f93014b82165f16f0ce34796bc68..8df574a90dda18b0b884afcdb9615cb8f152618f 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -178,10 +178,12 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
double baseTrade = cropUsage.getNetImportsExpected();
double maxOfProdOrSupply = cropUsage.getProductionExpected() + Math.max(baseTrade, 0);
+ double currentDemand = totalDemand.get(crop);
double prevDemand = cropUsage.getNetSupply() - cropUsage.getMonogastricFeed() - cropUsage.getRuminantFeed();
- double minNetImport = totalDemand.get(crop) < baseTrade ? totalDemand.get(crop) * 0.99 : baseTrade - ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply;
- double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, baseTrade + totalDemand.get(crop) - prevDemand);
+ double change = Math.max(ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, 1); // max of 1 otherwise if only importing then can never export
+ double minNetImport = currentDemand < baseTrade ? currentDemand * 0.95 : baseTrade - change; // min imports can't be lower than demand
+ double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + change, baseTrade + currentDemand - prevDemand); // increase in demand can be imported
double restiction = 0;
if (currentExportRestrictions != null) {
@@ -210,9 +212,12 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
if (ModelConfig.IS_CARBON_ON) {
double baseTrade = carbonUsageData.getNetCarbonImport();
double maxOfProdOrSupply = carbonUsageData.getCarbonCredits() + Math.max(0, carbonUsageData.getNetCarbonImport());
+ double currentDemand = getCurrentCarbonDemand();
double prevDemand = carbonUsageData.getCarbonCredits() + carbonUsageData.getNetCarbonImport();
- double minNetImport = getTotalWoodDemand() < baseTrade ? getCurrentCarbonDemand() * 0.99 : baseTrade - ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply;
- double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, baseTrade + getTotalWoodDemand() - prevDemand) ;
+
+ double change = Math.max(ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, 1); // max of 1 otherwise if only importing then can never export
+ double minNetImport = currentDemand < baseTrade ? currentDemand * 0.95 : baseTrade - change; // min imports can't be lower than demand
+ double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + change, baseTrade + currentDemand - prevDemand); // increase in demand can be imported
carbonTradeConstraint = new TradeConstraint(minNetImport, maxNetImport);
@@ -225,11 +230,13 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
if (ModelConfig.IS_FORESTRY_ON) {
WoodUsageData woodUsageData = previousGamsRasterOutput.getWoodUsageData();
double baseTrade = woodUsageData.getNetImport();
+ double maxOfProdOrSupply = woodUsageData.getProduction() + Math.max(baseTrade, 0);
+ double currentDemand = getTotalWoodDemand();
double prevDemand = woodUsageData.getNetImport() + woodUsageData.getProduction();
- double maxOfProdOrSupply = woodUsageData.getProduction() + Math.max(baseTrade, 0);
- double minNetImport = getTotalWoodDemand() < baseTrade ? getTotalWoodDemand() * 0.99 : baseTrade - ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply;
- double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, baseTrade + getTotalWoodDemand() - prevDemand) ;
+ double change = Math.max(ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE * maxOfProdOrSupply, 1); // max of 1 otherwise if only importing then can never export
+ double minNetImport = currentDemand < baseTrade ? currentDemand * 0.95 : baseTrade - change; // min imports can't be lower than demand
+ double maxNetImport = Math.max(baseTrade + change, baseTrade + currentDemand - prevDemand); // increase in demand can be imported
woodTradeConstraint = new TradeConstraint(minNetImport, maxNetImport);
} else {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index d51024cbc320f6118e277c5cc9525505c129f974..035bd79832335652b42589d5a3d99d2f07b8d0c7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -311,15 +311,6 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
}
}
- // Calibrated feed costs
- GAMSParameter feedCostP = inDB.addParameter("feedCostCalib", 1);
- Map<CropType, Double> feedCosts = calibrationItem.getFeedCosts();
- for (CropType crop : feedCosts.keySet()) {
- Vector<String> v = new Vector<>();
- v.add(crop.getGamsName());
- setGamsParamValue(feedCostP.addRecord(v), feedCosts.get(crop), -1);
- }
-
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("\nCrop, subsidy rate");
GAMSParameter subsideRateP = inDB.addParameter("subsidyRate", 1);
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
@@ -342,8 +333,8 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
CountryPrice gp = countryInput.getCountryPrices().get(crop);
double minTrade = iec.getMinConstraint();
double maxTrade = iec.getMaxConstraint();
- double importPrice = gp.getImportPrice() * calibrationItem.getSubsidyRate(crop);
- double exportPrice = gp.getProducerNetExportPrice() * calibrationItem.getSubsidyRate(crop);
+ double importPrice = gp.getImportPrice();
+ double exportPrice = gp.getProducerNetExportPrice();
CropUsageData cu = countryInput.getPreviousCropUsageData().get(crop);
double netImports = cu.getNetImportsExpected();
@@ -367,7 +358,6 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
setGamsParamValue(previousRuminantFeedP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), ruminantFeed, -1);
setGamsParamValue(previousMonogastricFeedP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), monogastricFeed, -1);
setGamsParamValue(seedAndWasteRateP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), seedAndWasteRate, -1);
- setGamsParamValue(costCalibP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), calibrationItem.getSubsidyRate(crop), -1);
setGamsParamValue(previousProdP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), prevProd, -1);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostManager.java
index 987d2ec3c2a15534c0c46546d974d298dc2f93a4..ef5e5f5f159905ea5e2247209bbeabf0f832c5eb 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostManager.java
@@ -118,6 +118,7 @@ public class ConversionCostManager {
conversionCosts.put(key, baseCost * ModelConfig.getAdjParam("AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR"));
}
+ // Additional cost of managed forest establishment
if (toLc.equals(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST)) {
double baseCost = conversionCosts.get(key);
conversionCosts.put(key, baseCost + ModelConfig.getAdjParam("TIMBER_FOREST_ESTABLISHMENT_COST"));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationItem.java
index 5bde036ace4d972b0b40b5e7f578b8ffca0ea003..1c83a13f0cc6f560fa2e413c08b72469172f434a 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationItem.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationItem.java
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.utils.calib;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
-import ac.ed.lurg.types.WoodType;
import java.io.Serializable;
import java.util.HashMap;
@@ -10,34 +9,18 @@ import java.util.Map;
public class CalibrationItem implements Serializable {
private static final long serialVersionUID = 7012118381657442621L;
private Map<CropType, Double> cropProdCosts = new HashMap<>();
- private Map<CropType, Double> feedCosts = new HashMap<>();
private double irrigationCostFactor;
private double irrigationEfficiency;
private double forestryCostFactor;
- private Map<CropType, Double> subsidyRates = new HashMap<>();
- double error;
public CalibrationItem() {}
public CalibrationItem(CalibrationItem itemToCopy) {
super();
this.cropProdCosts.putAll(itemToCopy.cropProdCosts);
- this.feedCosts.putAll(itemToCopy.feedCosts);
this.irrigationCostFactor = itemToCopy.irrigationCostFactor;
this.irrigationEfficiency = itemToCopy.irrigationEfficiency;
this.forestryCostFactor = itemToCopy.forestryCostFactor;
- this.subsidyRates.putAll(itemToCopy.subsidyRates);
- this.error = itemToCopy.error;
- }
-
- public void copyParameters(CalibrationItem itemToCopy) {
- this.cropProdCosts.putAll(itemToCopy.cropProdCosts);
- this.feedCosts.putAll(itemToCopy.feedCosts);
- this.irrigationCostFactor = itemToCopy.irrigationCostFactor;
- this.irrigationEfficiency = itemToCopy.irrigationEfficiency;
- this.forestryCostFactor = itemToCopy.forestryCostFactor;
- this.subsidyRates.putAll(itemToCopy.subsidyRates);
- this.error = itemToCopy.error;
}
public double getIrrigationCostFactor() {
@@ -68,18 +51,6 @@ public class CalibrationItem implements Serializable {
return cropProdCosts;
}
- public void setFeedCosts(Map<CropType, Double> feedCosts) {
- this.feedCosts = feedCosts;
- }
-
- public void setFeedCost(CropType crop, Double cost) {
- feedCosts.put(crop, cost);
- }
-
- public Map<CropType, Double> getFeedCosts() {
- return feedCosts;
- }
-
public void setForestryCostFactor(double forestryCostFactor) {
this.forestryCostFactor = forestryCostFactor;
}
@@ -88,19 +59,4 @@ public class CalibrationItem implements Serializable {
return forestryCostFactor;
}
- public void setSubsidyRate(CropType crop, double subsidyRate) {
- subsidyRates.put(crop, subsidyRate);
- }
-
- public double getSubsidyRate(CropType crop) {
- return subsidyRates.get(crop);
- }
-
- public double getError() {
- return error;
- }
-
- public void setError(double error) {
- this.error = error;
- }
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationManager.java
index 379e8cf5ca4b9c332daa0eab9b3484f583e6b64b..05c58891e2c6e49d3dd8431f6fdf70dfed5f1e71 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/utils/calib/CalibrationManager.java
@@ -66,22 +66,11 @@ public class CalibrationManager implements Serializable {
// Production costs
Map<CropType, Double> initProdCosts = new HashMap<>(defaultProductionCosts);
- // Feed costs
- Map<CropType, Double> initFeedCosts = new HashMap<>();
- for (CropType crop : CropType.getNonMeatTypes()) {
- initFeedCosts.put(crop, 0.01);
- }
-
CalibrationItem calibrationItem = new CalibrationItem();
calibrationItem.setIrrigationEfficiency(irrigationEfficiency.get(cc));
calibrationItem.setIrrigationCostFactor(1);
calibrationItem.setCropProdCosts(initProdCosts);
- calibrationItem.setFeedCosts(initFeedCosts);
calibrationItem.setForestryCostFactor(1);
- for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
- calibrationItem.setSubsidyRate(crop, 1);
- }
- //calibrationItem.setError(Double.POSITIVE_INFINITY);
parameters.put(cc, calibrationItem);
prevParams.put(cc, new CalibrationItem(calibrationItem));
@@ -107,7 +96,7 @@ public class CalibrationManager implements Serializable {
{
double adj;
double ratio = countryIrrig / baseCountryIrrig;
- if ((ratio > 0.5 && ratio < 2) || Math.abs(countryIrrig - baseCountryIrrig) < 1) {
+ if ((ratio > 0.5 && ratio < 1.5) || Math.abs(countryIrrig - baseCountryIrrig) < 1) {
adj = 1;
} else {
adj = 1 + 0.5 * lambda * ((countryIrrig - baseCountryIrrig) / (countryIrrig + baseCountryIrrig));
@@ -130,7 +119,7 @@ public class CalibrationManager implements Serializable {
double prod = cropUsage.get(crop).getProductionExpected();
double adj;
double ratio = prod / baselineProd;
- if (prod + baselineProd < 1 || (ratio > 0.5 && ratio < 2)) {
+ if (prod + baselineProd < 1 || (ratio > 0.5 && ratio < 1.25)) {
adj = 1;
} else {
adj = 1 + 0.5 * lambda * ((prod - baselineProd) / (baselineProd + prod));
@@ -142,6 +131,23 @@ public class CalibrationManager implements Serializable {
calibrationItem.setCropProdCost(crop, newCost);
}
+ // Forestry costs
+ if (ModelConfig.IS_FORESTRY_ON) {
+ double prod = woodUsage.getProduction();
+ double baselineProd = baselineWoodUsage.get(compositeCountry).getProduction();
+ double adj;
+ double ratio = prod / baselineProd;
+ if (prod + baselineProd < 1 || (ratio > 0.5 && ratio < 1.25)) {
+ adj = 1;
+ } else {
+ adj = 1 + 0.5 * lambda * ((prod - baselineProd) / (baselineProd + prod));
+ }
+
+ double newCost = calibrationItem.getForestryCostFactor() * adj;
+ newCost = Math.min(Math.max(newCost, 0.5), 3);
+ calibrationItem.setForestryCostFactor(newCost);
+ }
+
}