From 02d3aa44414161164f0a83e5ab76283884bef27a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 5 Jul 2017 16:09:34 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Demand changes

---
 data/sims/hind_sims.csv                  | 132 ++++++---------
 data/sims/hindparms.csv                  |  19 ++-
 data/sims/ssp_params.csv                 |  32 ++--
 data/sims/ssp_sims.csv                   | 202 +++++++++++------------
 hind1970/data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv  |  43 +++++
 hind1970/data/com_curves.csv             |  36 ++--
 hindcast/hind_config.properties          |  26 +--
 src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java          |  10 +-
 src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java            |  11 +-
 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java  |   2 +
 src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java   |   6 +-
 src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java |   4 +-
 12 files changed, 270 insertions(+), 253 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 hind1970/data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv

diff --git a/data/sims/hind_sims.csv b/data/sims/hind_sims.csv
index 4f3fd0d1..13034590 100644
--- a/data/sims/hind_sims.csv
+++ b/data/sims/hind_sims.csv
@@ -1,81 +1,51 @@
-Ensemble,Scenario,AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE,AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST,BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,CROP_DECREASE_COST,CROP_INCREASE_COST,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,PASTURE_DECREASE_COST,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,PASTURE_INCREASE_COST
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+hb,s15,0.04375,3.8375,0.00085,0.2125,0.875,0.195,0.4875,0.10625,1.3125,0.375,0.1625,0.575,0.6875,0.525
+hb,s16,0.065625,2.61875,0.000975,0.23125,0.9125,0.2625,0.50625,0.134375,1.28125,0.2625,0.23125,0.8375,0.76875,0.3625
+hb,s17,0.415625,3.91875,0.000575,0.33125,1.1125,0.3825,0.40625,0.084375,0.78125,0.4625,0.33125,0.6375,0.66875,0.5625
+hb,s18,0.590625,1.96875,0.000375,0.18125,1.0125,0.2025,0.45625,0.109375,1.03125,0.3625,0.18125,0.5375,0.71875,0.6625
+hb,s19,0.240625,3.26875,0.000775,0.28125,0.8125,0.3225,0.55625,0.059375,0.53125,0.1625,0.28125,0.7375,0.61875,0.4625
+hb,s20,0.328125,1.64375,0.000675,0.20625,1.0625,0.3525,0.53125,0.096875,1.40625,0.3125,0.15625,0.6875,0.79375,0.4125
+hb,s21,0.678125,2.94375,0.001075,0.30625,0.8625,0.2325,0.43125,0.146875,0.90625,0.1125,0.25625,0.8875,0.69375,0.6125
+hb,s22,0.503125,2.29375,0.000875,0.15625,0.9625,0.4125,0.48125,0.071875,1.15625,0.2125,0.20625,0.7875,0.74375,0.5125
+hb,s23,0.153125,3.59375,0.000475,0.25625,1.1625,0.2925,0.58125,0.121875,0.65625,0.4125,0.30625,0.5875,0.64375,0.3125
+hb,s24,0.109375,1.80625,0.000725,0.31875,1.1375,0.2775,0.51875,0.065625,1.46875,0.2875,0.31875,0.5125,0.65625,0.5375
+hb,s25,0.459375,3.10625,0.000325,0.21875,0.9375,0.3975,0.41875,0.115625,0.96875,0.4875,0.21875,0.7125,0.75625,0.3375
+hb,s26,0.634375,2.45625,0.000525,0.26875,0.8375,0.2175,0.46875,0.090625,1.21875,0.3875,0.26875,0.8125,0.60625,0.4375
+hb,s27,0.284375,3.75625,0.000925,0.16875,1.0375,0.3375,0.56875,0.140625,0.71875,0.1875,0.16875,0.6125,0.70625,0.6375
+hb,s28,0.196875,2.13125,0.000425,0.34375,0.8875,0.3075,0.54375,0.103125,1.34375,0.3375,0.29375,0.7625,0.68125,0.6875
+hb,s29,0.546875,3.43125,0.000825,0.24375,1.0875,0.1875,0.44375,0.053125,0.84375,0.1375,0.19375,0.5625,0.78125,0.4875
+hb,s30,0.371875,1.48125,0.001025,0.29375,1.1875,0.3675,0.49375,0.128125,1.09375,0.2375,0.34375,0.6625,0.63125,0.3875
+hb,s31,0.021875,2.78125,0.000625,0.19375,0.9875,0.2475,0.59375,0.078125,0.59375,0.4375,0.24375,0.8625,0.73125,0.5875
+hb,s32,0.0328125,2.090625,0.0007875,0.265625,1.08125,0.33375,0.453125,0.1171875,1.078125,0.11875,0.190625,0.55625,0.671875,0.36875
+hb,s33,0.3828125,3.390625,0.0003875,0.165625,0.88125,0.21375,0.553125,0.0671875,0.578125,0.31875,0.290625,0.75625,0.771875,0.56875
+hb,s34,0.5578125,1.440625,0.0005875,0.315625,0.98125,0.39375,0.503125,0.1421875,1.328125,0.41875,0.240625,0.85625,0.621875,0.66875
+hb,s35,0.2078125,2.740625,0.0009875,0.215625,1.18125,0.27375,0.403125,0.0921875,0.828125,0.21875,0.340625,0.65625,0.721875,0.46875
+hb,s36,0.2953125,1.765625,0.0004875,0.290625,0.93125,0.24375,0.478125,0.0546875,1.203125,0.46875,0.215625,0.70625,0.696875,0.41875
+hb,s37,0.6453125,3.065625,0.0008875,0.190625,1.13125,0.36375,0.578125,0.1046875,0.703125,0.26875,0.315625,0.50625,0.796875,0.61875
+hb,s38,0.4703125,2.415625,0.0010875,0.340625,1.03125,0.18375,0.528125,0.0796875,1.453125,0.16875,0.165625,0.60625,0.646875,0.51875
+hb,s39,0.1203125,3.715625,0.0006875,0.240625,0.83125,0.30375,0.428125,0.1296875,0.953125,0.36875,0.265625,0.80625,0.746875,0.31875
+hb,s40,0.1640625,1.603125,0.0009375,0.178125,0.85625,0.31875,0.465625,0.0859375,1.140625,0.14375,0.253125,0.88125,0.759375,0.54375
+hb,s41,0.5140625,2.903125,0.0005375,0.278125,1.05625,0.19875,0.565625,0.1359375,0.640625,0.34375,0.153125,0.68125,0.659375,0.34375
+hb,s42,0.6890625,2.253125,0.0003375,0.228125,1.15625,0.37875,0.515625,0.0609375,1.390625,0.44375,0.303125,0.58125,0.709375,0.44375
+hb,s43,0.3390625,3.553125,0.0007375,0.328125,0.95625,0.25875,0.415625,0.1109375,0.890625,0.24375,0.203125,0.78125,0.609375,0.64375
+hb,s44,0.2515625,2.578125,0.0006375,0.153125,1.10625,0.28875,0.490625,0.1484375,1.015625,0.49375,0.328125,0.63125,0.784375,0.69375
+hb,s45,0.6015625,3.878125,0.0010375,0.253125,0.90625,0.40875,0.590625,0.0984375,0.515625,0.29375,0.228125,0.83125,0.684375,0.49375
+hb,s46,0.4265625,1.928125,0.0008375,0.203125,0.80625,0.22875,0.540625,0.1234375,1.265625,0.19375,0.278125,0.73125,0.734375,0.39375
+hb,s47,0.0765625,3.228125,0.0004375,0.303125,1.00625,0.34875,0.440625,0.0734375,0.765625,0.39375,0.178125,0.53125,0.634375,0.59375
+hb,s48,0.0546875,2.009375,0.0005125,0.346875,1.19375,0.41625,0.559375,0.0953125,0.859375,0.25625,0.221875,0.89375,0.703125,0.30625
+hb,s49,0.4046875,3.309375,0.0009125,0.246875,0.99375,0.29625,0.459375,0.1453125,1.359375,0.45625,0.321875,0.69375,0.603125,0.50625
+hb,s50,0.5796875,2.659375,0.0007125,0.296875,0.89375,0.35625,0.409375,0.0703125,0.609375,0.35625,0.171875,0.59375,0.753125,0.60625
diff --git a/data/sims/hindparms.csv b/data/sims/hindparms.csv
index dac28684..e244b38f 100644
--- a/data/sims/hindparms.csv
+++ b/data/sims/hindparms.csv
@@ -1,14 +1,15 @@
 Ensemble,pname,dist,xmin,xmax
-hb,AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE,unif,0.02,0.04
-hb,AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST,unif,0.05,0.15
 hb,BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,unif,0,0.7
-hb,CROP_DECREASE_COST,unif,0.5,1
-hb,CROP_INCREASE_COST,unif,0.3,0.6
 hb,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,unif,1.4,4
-hb,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,unif,0.0006,0.0021
-hb,IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY,unif,3,7
+hb,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,unif,0.0003,0.0011
+hb,IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY,unif,0.15,0.35
 hb,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,unif,0.8,1.2
-hb,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,unif,0.3,0.5
-hb,PASTURE_DECREASE_COST,unif,0.125,0.25
+hb,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,unif,0.18,0.42
 hb,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6
-hb,PASTURE_INCREASE_COST,unif,0.02,0.04
\ No newline at end of file
+hb,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,unif,0.05,0.15
+hb,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,unif,0.5,1.5
+hb,TRANSPORT_COST,unif,0.1,0.5
+hb,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,unif,0.15,0.35
+hb,LAND_CHANGE_COST,unif,0.5,0.9
+hb,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.6,0.8
+hb,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.3,0.7
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/sims/ssp_params.csv b/data/sims/ssp_params.csv
index b838a9ec..2bcecea0 100644
--- a/data/sims/ssp_params.csv
+++ b/data/sims/ssp_params.csv
@@ -19,11 +19,11 @@ SSP2,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.002,0.008,0.002,0.003,0.004,
 SSP3,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.002,0.008,-0.001,0,0.002,
 SSP4,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.002,0.008,0,0.003,0.005,
 SSP5,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.002,0.008,0.003,0.004,0.005,
-SSP1,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.65,1.35,0.8,0.9,1,
-SSP2,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.65,1.35,0.9,1,1.1,
-SSP3,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.65,1.35,1.1,1.2,1.3,
-SSP4,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.65,1.35,1,1.1,1.2,
-SSP5,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.65,1.35,0.7,0.8,0.9,
+SSP1,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.3,1.7,0.6,0.8,1,
+SSP2,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.3,1.7,0.8,1,1.2,
+SSP3,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.3,1.7,1.2,1.4,1.6,
+SSP4,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.3,1.7,1,1.2,1.4,
+SSP5,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,beta,0.3,1.7,0.4,0.6,0.8,
 SSP1,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.5,0.3,0.4,0.45,
 SSP2,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.5,0.25,0.3,0.35,
 SSP3,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.5,0.15,0.25,0.35,
@@ -69,11 +69,11 @@ SSP2,DIETARY_CLOSURE,beta,0,0.16,0.02,0.04,0.06,
 SSP3,DIETARY_CLOSURE,beta,0,0.16,0.02,0.04,0.06,
 SSP4,DIETARY_CLOSURE,beta,0,0.16,0.01,0.04,0.06,
 SSP5,DIETARY_CLOSURE,beta,0,0.16,0.04,0.06,0.12,
-SSP1,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.5,1,0.75,0.85,0.9,
-SSP2,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.5,1,0.65,0.7,0.75,
-SSP3,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.5,1,0.6,0.7,0.75,
-SSP4,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.5,1,0.7,0.75,0.85,
-SSP5,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.5,1,0.55,0.6,0.65,
+SSP1,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.4,1,0.75,0.85,0.9,
+SSP2,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.4,1,0.65,0.7,0.75,
+SSP3,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.4,1,0.6,0.7,0.8,
+SSP4,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.4,1,0.7,0.75,0.85,
+SSP5,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.4,1,0.5,0.6,0.65,
 SSP1,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0.3,3,1.2,1.8,2.4,
 SSP2,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0.3,3,0.8,1,1.2,
 SSP3,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0.3,3,0.5,0.65,0.8,
@@ -93,4 +93,14 @@ SSP1,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
 SSP2,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
 SSP3,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
 SSP4,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
-SSP5,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
\ No newline at end of file
+SSP5,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,2.5,4.5,,,,
+SSP1,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP2,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP3,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP4,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP5,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP1,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP2,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP3,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP4,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP5,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/sims/ssp_sims.csv b/data/sims/ssp_sims.csv
index 24bfa9ec..7e40f8af 100644
--- a/data/sims/ssp_sims.csv
+++ b/data/sims/ssp_sims.csv
@@ -1,101 +1,101 @@
-Ensemble,Scenario,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ,TRANSPORT_COST,SSP_SCENARIO,YIELD_DIR_TOP,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,DIETARY_CLOSURE,LAND_CHANGE_COST,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,MARKET_LAMBA
-SSP1,s1,0.282357255424409,1.01533023412577,0.195035080482664,0.00453302341257665,0.905972464181294,0.392464749320562,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1,3.25478849592337,0.355478849592337,0.000977394247961684,0.0228770160929893,0.0223114760852584,0.846851556336927,1.78037711411814,1,0.5,3.5
-SSP1,s2,0.295603747952307,1.00172299275499,0.219856253222114,0.00317229927549911,0.954781719442575,0.362938815233838,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.865397195882016,3.41331205428652,0.337763289140303,0.00105665602714326,0.0214839384786384,0.0290925017734361,0.822434309825645,2.05343321759731,1.1,0.45,4
-SSP1,s3,0.267162971227738,1.02739549215156,0.168227382610388,0.00573954921515635,0.859681918107226,0.418885342381086,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.13460280411798,3.07763289140303,0.371331205428652,0.000888816445701513,0.0242169546991675,0.0165251931668293,0.869892768724114,1.49978415050605,0.9,0.55,3
-SSP1,s4,0.275366775624226,1.00900560184625,0.207081890146159,0.00220196333409721,0.989945884654823,0.435230191370029,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.778430399816179,3.51138114822018,0.347306648304096,0.00101616317599008,0.020484656645973,0.0194506457869136,0.857929045710096,1.30712660576153,1.05,0.475,3.25
-SSP1,s5,0.303398429138692,1.03435622986656,0.148829077375294,0.00513042158342796,0.883706762006253,0.37884441384016,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.06452981700129,3.17306648304096,0.381138114822018,0.000822409709606033,0.0235183190940216,0.0344297715191872,0.804580885314585,1.91140841477001,0.85,0.575,4.25
-SSP1,s6,0.28890812858377,0.992019633340972,0.182541367124365,0.00390056018462464,0.829239642438855,0.405387725330027,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.935470182998708,2.94481941921206,0.324481941921206,0.000936533241520479,0.0222238146836663,0.0253950967147472,0.885144810112551,2.23225582307544,0.95,0.425,3.75
-SSP1,s7,0.255803923990134,1.02130421583428,0.235574858511474,0.00643562298665592,0.928802985978439,0.340803236535345,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.22156960018382,3.33232635198016,0.363232635198016,0.00110569057411009,0.0251160485505954,0.013061624676826,0.835466179505427,1.64764618334637,1.15,0.525,2.75
-SSP1,s8,0.262122177011529,1.00553920901204,0.175733923722865,0.00543021805262787,0.917182394336578,0.353148466474404,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.825362404483734,2.83497915088738,0.367182273538555,0.00107932035601593,0.0231952923242386,0.0271302412771764,0.814509200036812,1.98002271293278,0.875,0.4125,2.625
-SSP1,s9,0.292196584181148,1.0306853344549,0.227088490947081,0.00273539706529493,0.806318237947124,0.411970455897593,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.09841979470094,3.29362745293572,0.331889079884642,0.000913966353501737,0.0196770094284043,0.0149139669563471,0.863705368258275,1.41266873904281,1.075,0.5125,3.625
-SSP1,s10,0.308655597568759,0.984559912752491,0.201046402644416,0.00688785892152049,0.872098758645157,0.385821389195198,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.968039411678719,3.45864071203186,0.388136285408064,0.000767489575443689,0.0246241323378201,0.0208708732654258,0.841266812564804,1.71494089962857,1.175,0.4625,4.125
-SSP1,s11,0.278955190555909,1.01833249734325,0.133273645501426,0.00422421552697463,0.970462564867392,0.44689380901344,SSP1_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.28365534146685,3.12793270700347,0.351492833517119,0.000996813726467858,0.0218711945581873,0.0390335162347535,0.89676604725769,2.36425525237193,0.975,0.5625,3.125
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-SSP3,s3,0.204396262972347,1.00850043350485,0.0330090823549182,0.000806935090396357,1.07865740676269,0.321568949329572,SSP3_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp85_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,1.13460280411798,2.15459879723924,0.312941369597743,0.000427299398619619,0.0162236675874247,0.0324458683350484,0.75536860525454,0.595026958126635,0.9,0.55,3
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-SSP3,s8,0.200742050072531,0.993818547965311,0.0359763457745679,0.000628199566161882,1.17928944707608,0.193940746006202,SSP3_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp85_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.825362404483734,1.83227405592856,0.303309962094398,0.00081891091110263,0.0148507149870338,0.0514711340641052,0.644806959332981,0.739328746875369,0.875,0.4125,2.625
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-SSP5,s4,0.259219954126856,1.00768988334135,0.0506301059058289,0.00322022499098756,0.983970289560038,0.259196675396549,SSP5_v9_130325,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp85_ipsl_LUfixes2_forED_20170610,0.778430399816179,2.45518005237929,0.236767363178329,0.000463466647689418,0.0224481941921206,0.0565445406160013,0.623439121655779,1.30712660576153,1.05,0.475,3.25
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diff --git a/hind1970/data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv b/hind1970/data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e39a4124
--- /dev/null
+++ b/hind1970/data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+MODEL,SCENARIO,REGION,Variable,Unit,Year,value
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2000,21.76
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2005,27.2
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2010,34
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2015,42.5
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2020,53.125
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2025,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2030,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2035,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2040,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2045,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2050,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2055,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2060,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2065,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2070,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2075,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2080,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2085,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2090,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2095,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2100,66.40625
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2000,10
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2005,30
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2010,60
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2015,110
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2020,200
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2025,350
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2030,580
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2035,910
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2040,1300
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2045,1700
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2050,2000
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2055,2200
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2060,2400
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2065,2600
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2070,2800
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2075,3000
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2080,3200
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2085,3400
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2090,3600
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2095,3800
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2100,4000
diff --git a/hind1970/data/com_curves.csv b/hind1970/data/com_curves.csv
index f59a7fd4..e8d3dca2 100644
--- a/hind1970/data/com_curves.csv
+++ b/hind1970/data/com_curves.csv
@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 Item,a,b,c,r2,p,fitType
-Cereals,-0.008232988299309,0.0597198179249117,-0.00437235411404095,0.168619446118429,4.35710393690136e-98,kuznets
-Cereals,1.04952009900079,5334.03282339229,2289.34962979228,NA,NA,logistic
-Cereals,0.243014802064006,-0.00842084966729161,0,0.11820934804546,6.34872539225249e-93,loglinear
-Monogastrics,0.794676964769797,-0.234545291261076,0.0179741326897893,0.69464982372055,0,kuznets
-Monogastrics,0.328940243404601,13244.510378272,6636.30521112488,NA,NA,logistic
-Monogastrics,-0.238167357583806,0.0455714076448953,0,0.557221071325121,0,loglinear
-Oilcrops,-0.13182272432564,0.0383335730492913,-0.002148388810781,0.159697291444607,1.12972698402264e-98,kuznets
-Oilcrops,0.328940243404601,13244.510378272,6636.30521112488,NA,NA,logistic
-Oilcrops,-0.00837099764817619,0.00485229854428815,0,0.121951856066557,8.92374386546437e-95,loglinear
-Pulses,0.0100903653143,0.000627792271046581,-0.000118903592824759,0.123498533604705,9.68239829867238e-96,kuznets
-Pulses,0.328940243404601,13244.510378272,6636.30521112488,NA,NA,logistic
-Pulses,0.0169229013327169,-0.0012252537632877,0,0.121938657014269,1.38185176508635e-95,loglinear
-Ruminants,1.17209230898076,-0.434923423553464,0.0420866197247086,0.666710070938798,0,kuznets
-Ruminants,1.04952009900079,5334.03282339229,2289.34962979228,NA,NA,logistic
-Ruminants,-1.24632347663397,0.22097275730056,0,0.630526460061103,0,loglinear
-Starchy Roots,0.263962882360896,-0.0544790597736637,0.00356859728755803,0.0256457586076042,0.0206606211984033,kuznets
-Starchy Roots,0.328940243404601,13244.510378272,6636.30521112488,NA,NA,logistic
-Starchy Roots,0.0589012245422356,0.00113551196494476,0,0.00127348077519696,0.0222693769166281,loglinear
+Cereals,0,0.0552007924603893,-0.00382283483078543,0.958080260117713,0,kuznets
+Cereals,0.999767787187352,6268.28017320649,2896.40700435084,NA,NA,logistic
+Cereals,0,0.023468797170772,0,0.89550683709269,0,loglinear
+Monogastrics,0,-0.0262810773920258,0.00533803552838802,0.775706329829771,0,kuznets
+Monogastrics,0.309090700537884,6411.8184641176,4499.65548861432,NA,NA,logistic
+Monogastrics,0,0.0180280611766989,0,0.630209110561778,0,loglinear
+Oilcrops,0,0.00318665031186429,7.01443240364163e-05,0.60792173711096,0,kuznets
+Oilcrops,0.309090700537884,6411.8184641176,4499.65548861432,NA,NA,logistic
+Oilcrops,0,0.00376889542128026,0,0.607427477700897,0,loglinear
+Pulses,0,0.00303353176835154,-0.000261539400963843,0.643942699018024,0,kuznets
+Pulses,0.309090700537884,6411.8184641176,4499.65548861432,NA,NA,logistic
+Pulses,0,0.000862208557154207,0,0.518222762582556,0,loglinear
+Ruminants,0,-0.112429272678123,0.0198811996704741,0.778699139134186,0,kuznets
+Ruminants,0.999767787187352,6268.28017320649,2896.40700435084,NA,NA,logistic
+Ruminants,0,0.0525975103821874,0,0.565802150954877,0,loglinear
+Starchy Roots,0,0.0149787398625662,-0.000782859857266818,0.614514350132488,0,kuznets
+Starchy Roots,0.309090700537884,6411.8184641176,4499.65548861432,NA,NA,logistic
+Starchy Roots,0,0.00848049800728901,0,0.601081037676974,0,loglinear
diff --git a/hindcast/hind_config.properties b/hindcast/hind_config.properties
index a45dacdb..d8bbddac 100644
--- a/hindcast/hind_config.properties
+++ b/hindcast/hind_config.properties
@@ -9,16 +9,14 @@ YIELD_DIR=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/LURG/LPJ/29May2017/LPJG_PLUM_expt1.1_1
 # irritatingly the gams file is also found under the BASE_DIR, and don't want to duplicate so need to specify exactly
 GAMS_MODEL=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/R_Workspace/UNPLUM/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
 
-DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=true
-DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=Germany
-#Europe & Central Asia_other
-#Russian Federation
-#Europe & Central Asia_other
+DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=false
+DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=India  & Sri Lanka
+DEBUG_JUST_DEMAND_OUTPUT=true
+DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT=loglinear
+IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = false
 
-IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = true
-
-END_TIMESTEP=0
-TIMESTEP_SIZE=2
+END_TIMESTEP=1
+TIMESTEP_SIZE=40
 
 INTERPOLATE_OUTPUT_YEARS = false
 
@@ -30,13 +28,3 @@ PASTURE_INCREASE_COST=0.02
 AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE=0.02
 AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST=0.1
 
-
-#Yields too high by factor of 10
-CALIB_FACTOR_WHEAT = 0.0986
-CALIB_FACTOR_MAIZE = 0.0625
-CALIB_FACTOR_RICE = 0.1105
-CALIB_FACTOR_OILCROPS = 0.0554
-CALIB_FACTOR_PULSES = 0.0615
-CALIB_FACTOR_STARCHY_ROOTS = 0.6211
-
-NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS=500
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 6fed23c2..bdc09ed3 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 	public static final boolean CLEANUP_GAMS_DIR = getBooleanProperty("CLEANUP_GAMS_DIR", false);
 
 	// Country (non-gridded) data
-	public static final String DEMAND_CURVES_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "com_curves.csv";
+	public static final String DEMAND_CURVES_FILE = getProperty("DEMAND_CURVES_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + "com_curves.csv");
 	public static final String SSP_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "ssp.csv";	
 	public static final String BASELINE_CONSUMP_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "base_consump.csv";
 	public static final String COUNTRY_CODES_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "country_codes4.csv";
@@ -183,13 +183,17 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 	public static final double MAX_FERT_AMOUNT = getDoubleProperty("MAX_FERT_AMOUNT", 1000.0);
 	public static final int FERT_AMOUNT_PADDING = getIntProperty("FERT_AMOUNT_PADDING", 4);;
 
+	// SSP shift parameters
+	public static final double SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR", 1.0);
+	public static final double SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR", 1.0);
+
 	// Other model parameters
 	public static final boolean CHANGE_DEMAND_YEAR = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? false : getBooleanProperty("CHANGE_DEMAND_YEAR", true);
 	public static final double DIETARY_CLOSURE = getDoubleProperty("DIETARY_CLOSURE", 0.0); // Amount diet converges in DIETARY_CLOSURE_GDP_CHANGE rate of GDP shift
 	public static final double DIETARY_CLOSURE_GDP_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("DIETARY_CLOSURE_GDP_CHANGE", 2.0); // 2 is double of GDP
 	public static final double DIETARY_CLOSURE_PARAM = getDoubleProperty("DIETARY_CLOSURE_PARAM", Math.log((1-DIETARY_CLOSURE))/DIETARY_CLOSURE_GDP_CHANGE); // Zero is no dietary closure, number specifies closure rate for changes in GDP per capita, e.g. Math.log(0.5)/2
 	public static final String SSP_SCENARIO = getProperty("SSP_SCENARIO", "SSP1_v9_130325");
-	public static final ModelFitType DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT = ModelFitType.findByName(getProperty("DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT", "loglinear"));
+	public static final ModelFitType DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT = ModelFitType.findByName(getProperty("DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT", "logistic"));
 	public static final ModelFitType DEMAND_NON_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT = ModelFitType.findByName(getProperty("DEMAND_NON_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT", "loglinear"));
 	
 	public static final double PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION", 0.5);
@@ -240,7 +244,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 	public static final double DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP = getDoubleProperty("DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP", 1.0);
 	public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.05);  // in international trade
 	public static final double TRANSPORT_COST = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_COST", 0.3);  // 100 $/t  see Wheat Transportation Profile - USDA
-	public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT", 0.5);  // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
+	public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT", 0.4);  // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
 	public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ", 1.0);
 	public static final boolean ACTIVE_TRADE_BARRIERS = getBooleanProperty("ACTIVE_TRADE_BARRIERS", false);  // if set to true read in barrier information from file, otherwise use default as above
 
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 26e992d4..004891ec 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -200,14 +200,9 @@ public class ModelMain {
 		// Look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
 		for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
 			GlobalPrice prevPrice = prevWorldPrices.get(crop);
-
-			if (!totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) || !totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop)) {
-				LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for %s not updated (still %s), as no imports or no exports for it", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice));
-				continue;
-			}
-
-			double imports = totalImportCommodities.get(crop);
-			double exports = totalExportCommodities.get(crop) * (1.0-ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES);
+			double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
+			double exports = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) * (1.0-ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES): 0.0;
+			
 			double previousStockLevel = prevStockLevel.get(crop);
 			GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exports, (ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE));
 			LogWriter.println(String.format("Price for %s updated from %s (imports amount %.0f, exports amount %.0f) to %s ", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index 76894a67..b42d72a9 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 package ac.ed.lurg.country;
 
 import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
 
 public class GlobalPrice {
 	double exportPrice;
@@ -49,6 +50,7 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
 			return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice * adjustment, imports, exports);
 		}
 		else {
+			LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for not updated (still %s), as no imports and no exports for it", exportPrice));
 			return this;
 		}
 	}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
index 58a26b38..780aeb1e 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
@@ -81,7 +81,11 @@ public class DemandCurve {
 		double gapRatio = Math.exp((gdpPc-baseGdpPc)/baseGdpPc * Z);
 		if (gapRatio>1) gapRatio = 1;
 		
-		double projectedCpc = newExpCpc/baseExpCpc*(baseCpc*gapRatio+baseExpCpc*(1-gapRatio)); //(newExpCpc+(baseCpc-baseExpCpc)*gapRatio); 
+		double adjFactor = (baseCpc*gapRatio+baseExpCpc*(1-gapRatio))/baseExpCpc;
+		if (adjFactor > 4) adjFactor = 4;
+		if (adjFactor < 0.25) adjFactor = 0.25;
+		double projectedCpc = newExpCpc*adjFactor; //(newExpCpc+(baseCpc-baseExpCpc)*gapRatio); 
+		
 		return projectedCpc;
 	}
 	
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
index a1fb817c..29f8a5a6 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
@@ -53,8 +53,8 @@ public class DemandManager {
 				ModelFitType fitType = commodity.isAnimalProduct() ? ModelConfig.DEMAND_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT : ModelConfig.DEMAND_NON_ANIMAL_PROD_FIT;
 				
 				DemandCurve dc = demandCurveManager.get(commodity, fitType);
-				double cpc = dc.getConsumptionPc(baseSspData.getGdpPc(), baseConsumpManager.get(c, commodity), sd.getGdpPc());
-				double d = cpc * sd.getPopulation();
+				double cpc = dc.getConsumptionPc(baseSspData.getGdpPc(), baseConsumpManager.get(c, commodity), sd.getGdpPc() * ModelConfig.SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR);
+				double d = cpc * sd.getPopulation() * ModelConfig.SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR;
 
 				double bioenergy = bioenergyDemandManager.getFirstGenBioenergyDemand(c, year, commodity);
 				//		LogWriter.println(String.format("Country %s comm %s: %f",  country, commodity, bioenergy));
-- 
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