From 0602d1425746dcb276796ad166b8c19f4d20f91e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: alexanpe <devnull@localhost>
Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2019 13:55:21 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] Use previous demand results as initial conditions
---
GAMS/elasticDemand.gms | 30 ++---
debug_config.properties | 10 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 1 -
.../ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java | 2 +-
.../country/gams/GamsCommodityDemand.java | 36 ++++++
.../ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandInput.java | 39 +++++++
.../country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java | 104 +++++++++++-------
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java | 38 +++++++
.../ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java | 11 +-
9 files changed, 207 insertions(+), 64 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCommodityDemand.java
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandInput.java
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
diff --git a/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms b/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
index e3f43c04..ca1a406f 100644
--- a/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
+++ b/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
@@ -10,6 +10,9 @@ PARAMETER
delta(i) Parameter of MAIDADS
tau(i) Parameter of MAIDADS
omega Parameter of MAIDADS
+ previousU
+ previousSubs(i)
+ previousDisc(i)
;
$gdxin %gdx_parameters%
@@ -32,10 +35,10 @@ PARAMETER
$gdxin %gdx_prices_and_gdp%
*$gdxin "../../GAMS/PricesAndGdp.gdx"
-$load p=price, m=gdp_pc
+$load p=price, m=gdp_pc, previousU, previousSubs, previousDisc
$gdxin
-display p, m , alpha, beta, kappa, delta, tau, omega;
+display p, m, alpha, beta, kappa, delta, tau, omega;
w.up(j) = 1;
@@ -69,12 +72,14 @@ model MAIDADS_Sim "MAIDADS model for simulation" /
MAIDADS_Sim.optfile = 1;
option cns=path;
-u = 0;
-SubsistenceC(j) = 0.05;
-DiscretionaryC(i)$p(i) = 0.05;
+u = previousU;
+SubsistenceC(i) = previousSubs(i);
+DiscretionaryC(i) = previousDisc(i);
DiscretionaryC.LO(i) = 1E-11;
SubsistenceC.LO(j) = 0;
-w(j) = (SubsistenceC(j)+DiscretionaryC(j))*p(j)/m;
+w(j) = (SubsistenceC(j)+DiscretionaryC(j))*p(j)/m;
+
+display u.l, DiscretionaryC.l, SubsistenceC.l;
solve MAIDADS_Sim using cns;
@@ -82,13 +87,8 @@ Scalar ms 'model status', ss 'solve status';
ms=MAIDADS_Sim.modelstat;
ss=MAIDADS_Sim.solvestat;
-display DiscretionaryC.l, alpha, beta, kappa,u.l;
-
-parameter totalDemand(i);
-totalDemand(i) = SubsistenceC(i) + DiscretionaryC(i);
-
-parameter disc(i);
-
-disc(i) = [m-sum(j,p(j)*SubsistenceC(j))];
+display DiscretionaryC.l, u.l;
-display disc;
+*parameter disc(i);
+*disc(i) = [m-sum(j,p(j)*SubsistenceC(j))];
+*display disc;
diff --git a/debug_config.properties b/debug_config.properties
index 29b8ba62..f5d79b5c 100644
--- a/debug_config.properties
+++ b/debug_config.properties
@@ -2,15 +2,15 @@ BASE_DIR=..
YIELD_DIR=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/LURG/LPJ/LPJGPLUM_expt1.1_2006-2100_PLUM6xtra_20180412171654/rcp60
-DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=false
-DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=China
+DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=true
+DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=Japan
-IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = true
+IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = false
GENERATE_NEW_YIELD_CLUSTERS = false
NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS=8000
-END_TIMESTEP=0
-TIMESTEP_SIZE=1
+END_TIMESTEP=5
+TIMESTEP_SIZE=5
INTERPOLATE_OUTPUT_YEARS = false
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index c899a92c..c4042176 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -378,5 +378,4 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final boolean USE_CRAFTY_COUNTRIES = getBooleanProperty("USE_CRAFTY_COUNTRIES", false);
public static final String CRAFTY_PRODUCTION_DIR = getProperty("CRAFTY_PRODUCTION_DIR", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator + "crafty");
- public static final double NON_FOOD_PRICE = getDoubleProperty("NON_FOOD_PRICE", 0.06);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
index 892882eb..e6ca1af5 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
LogWriter.println(commodity.getGamsName() + ": " + commPrice);
}
- prices.put(CommodityType.NONFOOD, ModelConfig.NON_FOOD_PRICE);
+ prices.put(CommodityType.NONFOOD, Double.NaN);
return prices;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCommodityDemand.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCommodityDemand.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..162d5879
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCommodityDemand.java
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
+
+public class GamsCommodityDemand {
+
+ private CommodityType commodity;
+ private double subsistence;
+ private double discretionary;
+
+ public GamsCommodityDemand(CommodityType commodity, double subsistence, double discretionary) {
+ this.commodity = commodity;
+ this.subsistence = subsistence;
+ this.discretionary = discretionary;
+ }
+
+ public double getSubsistence() {
+ return subsistence;
+ }
+
+ public double getDiscretionary() {
+ return discretionary;
+ }
+
+ public double getKcalTotal() {
+ return (subsistence+ discretionary) * 2000;
+ }
+
+ public double getPlumDemand() {
+ return getKcalTotal()*365/commodity.getkcalPerT();
+ }
+
+ public CommodityType getCommodity() {
+ return commodity;
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandInput.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d7cd2f3b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandInput.java
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
+
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.SingleCountry;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
+
+public class GamsDemandInput {
+ private SingleCountry country;
+ private double gdpPc;
+ private Map<CommodityType, Double> prices;
+ private double usaGdpPc;
+ private GamsDemandOutput previousGamsDemands;
+
+ public GamsDemandInput(SingleCountry country, double gdpPc, Map<CommodityType, Double> prices, double usaGdpPc, GamsDemandOutput previousGamsDemands) {
+ super();
+ this.country = country;
+ this.gdpPc = gdpPc;
+ this.prices = prices;
+ this.usaGdpPc = usaGdpPc;
+ this.previousGamsDemands = previousGamsDemands;
+ }
+
+ public SingleCountry getCountry() {
+ return country;
+ }
+ public double getGdpPc() {
+ return gdpPc;
+ }
+ public Map<CommodityType, Double> getPrices() {
+ return prices;
+ }
+ public double getUsaGdpPc() {
+ return usaGdpPc;
+ }
+ public GamsDemandOutput getPreviousDemands() {
+ return previousGamsDemands;
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
index 17e3650c..a3b8a5e2 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
import java.io.File;
-import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.HashSet;
import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Vector;
@@ -11,29 +11,24 @@ import com.gams.api.GAMSJob;
import com.gams.api.GAMSOptions;
import com.gams.api.GAMSParameter;
import com.gams.api.GAMSParameterRecord;
+import com.gams.api.GAMSVariable;
+import com.gams.api.GAMSVariableRecord;
import com.gams.api.GAMSWorkspace;
import com.gams.api.GAMSWorkspaceInfo;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.SingleCountry;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
- private SingleCountry country;
- private double gdpPc;
- private Map<CommodityType, Double> prices;
- private double usaGdpPc;
+ private GamsDemandInput inputData;
- public GamsDemandOptimiser(SingleCountry country, double gdpPc, Map<CommodityType, Double> prices, double usaGdpPc) {
- this.country = country;
- this.gdpPc = gdpPc;
- this.prices = prices;
- this.usaGdpPc = usaGdpPc;
+ public GamsDemandOptimiser(GamsDemandInput inputData) {
+ this.inputData = inputData;
}
- public Map<CommodityType, Double> getDemandPc() {
+ public GamsDemandOutput getDemandPc() {
File workingDirectory = new File(ModelConfig.TEMP_DIR);
workingDirectory.mkdir();
GAMSWorkspaceInfo wsInfo = new GAMSWorkspaceInfo();
@@ -46,8 +41,6 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
GAMSJob gamsJob = ws.addJobFromFile(ModelConfig.DEMAND_GAMS_MODEL);
GAMSOptions opt = ws.addOptions();
-// opt.setAllModelTypes("conopt");
-
opt.defines("gdx_parameters", new File(ModelConfig.DEMAND_PARAM_FILE).getAbsolutePath());
opt.defines("gdx_prices_and_gdp", inDB.getName());
@@ -60,25 +53,49 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
private void setupInDB(GAMSDatabase inDB) {
GAMSParameter gdpPcP = inDB.addParameter("gdp_pc", 0);
- LogWriter.println(String.format("gdp_pc:\t= %.5f", gdpPc));
+ double gdpPc = inputData.getGdpPc();
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("gdp_pc = %.5f", gdpPc));
setGamsParamValue(gdpPcP.addRecord(), gdpPc, 5);
+ GamsDemandOutput previousGamsDemands = inputData.getPreviousDemands();
+
+ GAMSParameter prevUP = inDB.addParameter("previousU", 0);
+ double previousUtility = previousGamsDemands == null ? 0 : previousGamsDemands.getUtility();//-16.3829624069452 + 4.3659621833299 * Math.log10(gdpPc);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("previousU = %.5f, estimated = %.5f", previousUtility, -16.3829624069452 + 4.3659621833299 * Math.log10(gdpPc)));
+ setGamsParamValue(prevUP.addRecord(), previousUtility, 5);
LogWriter.println("\nPrice");
- GAMSParameter priceP = inDB.addParameter("price", 1);
-
- for (Map.Entry<CommodityType, Double> entry : prices.entrySet()) {
+ GAMSParameter priceP = inDB.addParameter("price", 1);
+ GAMSParameter prevSubsP = inDB.addParameter("previousSubs", 1);
+ GAMSParameter prevDiscP = inDB.addParameter("previousDisc", 1);
+
+ for (Map.Entry<CommodityType, Double> entry : inputData.getPrices().entrySet()) {
CommodityType comm = entry.getKey();
Vector<String> v = new Vector<String>();
v.add(comm.getGamsName());
+ double priceComm, prevSubs = 0.1, prevDisc = 0.1;
+
+ if (comm == CommodityType.NONFOOD) {
+ prevSubs = 5;
+ prevDisc = 1;
+ priceComm = 45.376+53.036*gdpPc/inputData.getUsaGdpPc();
+ }
+ else
+ priceComm = entry.getValue() * 1000 / comm.getkcalPerT()*2000*365; //price per calorie of commodity x per year assuming 2000 kcal a day for whole year
- double priceComm;
- if (comm == CommodityType.NONFOOD)
- priceComm = 45.376+53.036*gdpPc/usaGdpPc;
- else
- priceComm = entry.getValue() * 1000 / comm.getkcalPerT()*2000*365; //price per calorie of commodity x per year assuming 2000 kcal a day for whole year
-
- LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: price= %.4f", comm.getGamsName(), priceComm));
+ if (previousGamsDemands != null) {
+ GamsCommodityDemand demand = previousGamsDemands.getGamsDemands(comm);
+ if (demand == null)
+ LogWriter.printlnError("Null GamsCommodityDemand for " + comm);
+ else {
+ prevSubs = demand.getSubsistence();
+ prevDisc = demand.getDiscretionary();
+ }
+ }
+
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: price=%.4f, previousSubs=%.4f, previousDisc=%.4f", comm.getGamsName(), priceComm, prevSubs, prevDisc));
setGamsParamValue(priceP.addRecord(v), priceComm, 4);
+ setGamsParamValue(prevSubsP.addRecord(v), prevSubs, 4);
+ setGamsParamValue(prevDiscP.addRecord(v), prevDisc, 4);
}
}
@@ -88,36 +105,43 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
return dOut;
}
- private Map<CommodityType, Double> handleResults(GAMSDatabase outDB) {
+ private GamsDemandOutput handleResults(GAMSDatabase outDB) {
int modelStatus = (int) outDB.getParameter("ms").findRecord().getValue();
- LogWriter.println(String.format("\nDemamd %s: Modelstatus %s, Solvestatus %s", country,
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("\nDemamd %s: Modelstatus %s, Solvestatus %s", inputData.getCountry(),
GAMSGlobals.ModelStat.lookup( modelStatus ),
GAMSGlobals.SolveStat.lookup((int) outDB.getParameter("ss").findRecord().getValue()) ));
-
- GAMSParameter parmProd = outDB.getParameter("totalDemand");
- Map<CommodityType, Double> demandMap = new HashMap<CommodityType, Double>();
+ GAMSVariable varU = outDB.getVariable("u");
+ double utility = varU.getFirstRecord().getLevel();
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("u = %.4f", utility));
+
+ GAMSVariable varSubs = outDB.getVariable("SubsistenceC");
+ GAMSVariable varDisc = outDB.getVariable("DiscretionaryC");
+
+ HashSet<GamsCommodityDemand> demandMap = new HashSet<GamsCommodityDemand>();
- for (GAMSParameterRecord rec : parmProd) {
+ for (GAMSVariableRecord rec : varSubs) {
String commodityName = rec.getKeys()[0];
CommodityType commodity = CommodityType.getForGamsName(commodityName, true);
+
if (commodity == null)
LogWriter.println(String.format("Can't find commodity from Gams demand, so ignoring: " + commodityName));
else {
- //gams is calculating demand in number of 2000 kcal servings per day so * by 2000 and * 365 to get kcal per year
- double demandGams = rec.getValue();
-
+ double subsGams = rec.getLevel();
+ double discGams = varDisc.findRecord(commodityName).getLevel();
+
if (commodity == CommodityType.NONFOOD) { // we don't want to consider non-food, so not added to demandMap
- LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: demand(gams)= %.3f", commodityName, demandGams));
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: subs=%.3f, disc=%.3f", commodityName, subsGams, discGams));
}
- else {
- double demandPc = rec.getValue()*2000*365*1/commodity.getkcalPerT();
- LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: demand(gams)= %.3f, demand(kcal)=%.1f, demand(plum)= %.3f", commodityName, demandGams, demandGams*2000, demandPc));
- demandMap.put(commodity, demandPc);
+ else { //gams is calculating demand in number of 2000 kcal servings per day so * by 2000 and * 365 to get kcal per year
+ GamsCommodityDemand demand = new GamsCommodityDemand(commodity, subsGams, discGams);
+
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("%14s: subs=%.3f, disc=%.3f, demand(kcal)=%.1f, demand(plum)= %.3f", commodityName, subsGams, discGams, demand.getKcalTotal(), demand.getPlumDemand()));
+ demandMap.add(demand);
}
}
}
- return demandMap;
+ return new GamsDemandOutput(demandMap, utility);
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c8f12785
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
+
+import java.util.Collection;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
+
+public class GamsDemandOutput {
+ public Collection<GamsCommodityDemand> demands;
+ public double utility;
+
+ public GamsDemandOutput(Collection<GamsCommodityDemand> demands, double utility) {
+ this.demands = demands;
+ this.utility = utility;
+ }
+
+ public Map<CommodityType, Double> getPlumDemands() {
+ Map<CommodityType, Double> plumDemands = new HashMap<CommodityType, Double>();
+
+ for (GamsCommodityDemand demand : demands)
+ plumDemands.put(demand.getCommodity(), demand.getPlumDemand());
+
+ return plumDemands;
+ }
+
+ public GamsCommodityDemand getGamsDemands(CommodityType comm) {
+ for (GamsCommodityDemand demand : demands)
+ if (demand.getCommodity() == comm)
+ return demand;
+
+ return null;
+ }
+
+ public double getUtility() {
+ return utility;
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
index 5c63ca71..4171d3e7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
@@ -6,12 +6,15 @@ import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountryManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.SingleCountry;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsDemandInput;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsDemandOptimiser;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsDemandOutput;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
public class ElasticDemandManager extends AbstractSSPDemandManager {
- protected Map<SingleCountry, Map<CommodityType, Double>> baseCpcCache = new HashMap<SingleCountry, Map<CommodityType, Double>>();
+ private Map<SingleCountry, Map<CommodityType, Double>> baseCpcCache = new HashMap<SingleCountry, Map<CommodityType, Double>>();
+ private Map<SingleCountry, GamsDemandOutput> previousGamsDemands = new HashMap<SingleCountry, GamsDemandOutput>();
public ElasticDemandManager(String ssp_scenario, BaseConsumpManager baseConsumpManager, CompositeCountryManager compositeCountryManager) {
super(ssp_scenario, baseConsumpManager, compositeCountryManager);
@@ -20,8 +23,12 @@ public class ElasticDemandManager extends AbstractSSPDemandManager {
@Override
Map<CommodityType, Double> getFoodDemandMap(SingleCountry c, double gdpPc, double population, Map<CommodityType, Double> prices, double usaGdpPc) {
+ GamsDemandInput inputData = new GamsDemandInput(c, gdpPc, prices, usaGdpPc, previousGamsDemands.get(c));
+
// Do the projection
- Map<CommodityType, Double> foodPc = new GamsDemandOptimiser(c, gdpPc, prices, usaGdpPc).getDemandPc();
+ GamsDemandOutput gamsOutput = new GamsDemandOptimiser(inputData).getDemandPc();
+ previousGamsDemands.put(c, gamsOutput);
+ Map<CommodityType, Double> foodPc = gamsOutput.getPlumDemands();
Map<CommodityType, Double> foodDemands = new HashMap<CommodityType, Double>();
SspData baseSspData = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR, c);
--
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