From 14252e98712b8407ed1333bb30373435dbf07712 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: R0slyn <roslyn.henry.08@aberdeen.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2019 17:18:49 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Script tweaks for Frances for generating shock.csv files when
creating scenarios.
---
data/shockDistributions.csv | 16 +++++-----
scripts/createShockFiles.R | 64 ++++++++++++++++++++-----------------
2 files changed, 43 insertions(+), 37 deletions(-)
diff --git a/data/shockDistributions.csv b/data/shockDistributions.csv
index 5ebfa56d..bb9d8cdb 100644
--- a/data/shockDistributions.csv
+++ b/data/shockDistributions.csv
@@ -2,22 +2,22 @@ shock,pname,min,max,type
protectionism,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,0.1,0.2,additive
protectionism ,TRANSPORT_COST,0.5,1,multiplicative
protectionism ,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,0.05,0.1,additive
-automation,TRANSPORT_COST,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
-automation,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,-0.05,-0.1,additive
+automation,TRANSPORT_COST,-0.5,-0.25,multiplicative
+automation,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,-0.1,-0.05,additive
automation,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.002,0.004,additive
automation,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,0.025,0.05,additive
-automation,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
-automation,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
-automation,IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER,-0.25,-0.5,additive
+automation,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,-0.5,-0.25,multiplicative
+automation,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,-0.5,-0.25,multiplicative
+automation,IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER,-0.5,-0.25,additive
automation,IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER,0.1,0.2,additive
diet,RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.4,0.6,additive
diet,MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.4,0.6,additive
cyber,TRANSPORT_COST,0.5,1,multiplicative
cyber,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,0.1,0.2,additive
-cyber,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,-0.002,-0.004,additive
-cyber,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,-0.025,-0.05,additive
+cyber,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,-0.004,-0.002,additive
+cyber,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,-0.05,-0.025,additive
cyber,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,0.25,0.5,multiplicative
cyber,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,0.25,0.5,multiplicative
cyber,IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER,0.25,0.5,additive
-cyber,IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER,-0.1,-0.2,additive
+cyber,IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER,-0.2,-0.1,additive
financial,FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER,0.5,1,additive
diff --git a/scripts/createShockFiles.R b/scripts/createShockFiles.R
index 37c1bca3..2e106535 100644
--- a/scripts/createShockFiles.R
+++ b/scripts/createShockFiles.R
@@ -9,28 +9,36 @@ createShockFile = function(scenario){
#setting all parameters to default values. If parameters are changed according to ssp then pull value from samp table, if not
#set as default same as in config file or to a value that makes no change
- paramValues = data.table(Year = seq(2010,2100,1),
- trendYearValue = c(rep(0,16),seq(0.2,1,0.2),rep(1,70)),
- TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER =scenario[,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER],
- TRANSPORT_COST = scenario[,TRANSPORT_COST],
- TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = scenario[,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE],
- MEAT_EFFICIENCY = scenario[,MEAT_EFFICIENCY],
- FERTILISER_COST_PER_T=scenario[,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T],
- OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = scenario[,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST],
- TRANSPORT_LOSSES = 0.05,
- IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = 1.0,
- RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0.0,
- MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0.0,
- IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER = 1.0,
- FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER = 1.0)
-
+ ##This creates the shocks.csv table that PLUM needs to read in to update the parameter values over time
+ ##the parameters below and their order must match the order of the method in PLUM in ModelConfig readInShocksFile()
+ ##if the parameter has a baseline value as specified in the scenario table then use that otherwise use the PLUM default value
+ ##as in ModelConfig
+ paramValues = data.table(Year = seq(2010,2100,1),
+ trendYearValue = c(rep(0,scenarioTable[i,SHOCK_START_YEAR]-2010),
+ seq(0,1,1/scenarioTable[i,SHOCK_END_YEAR-SHOCK_START_YEAR]),
+ rep(1,2100-scenarioTable[i,SHOCK_END_YEAR])),
+ TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER =scenario[, if(exists("TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER")) TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER else 1.0],
+ TRANSPORT_COST = scenario[, if(exists("TRANSPORT_COST")) TRANSPORT_COST else 0.1],
+ TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = scenario[, if(exists("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE")) TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE else 0.002],
+ MEAT_EFFICIENCY = scenario[, if(exists("MEAT_EFFICIENCY")) MEAT_EFFICIENCY else 1.0],
+ FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = scenario[, if(exists("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T")) FERTILISER_COST_PER_T else 1.4],
+ OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = scenario[, if(exists("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST")) OTHER_INTENSITY_COST else 0.8],
+ TRANSPORT_LOSSES = scenario[, if(exists("TRANSPORT_LOSSES")) TRANSPORT_LOSSES else 0.05],
+ IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = scenario[, if(exists("IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER")) IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER else 1.0],
+ RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = scenario[, if(exists("RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE")) RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE else 0.0],
+ MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = scenario[, if(exists("MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE")) MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE else 0.0],
+ IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER = scenario[, if(exists("IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER")) IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER else 1.0],
+ FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER = scenario[, if(exists("FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER")) FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER else 1.0]
+ )
+
paramValues[, names(paramValues) := lapply(.SD, as.numeric)]
+ ##This decides if and when a cyber shock or financial shock will happen according to the shockProbabilities.csv table and the SSP
shocksHappen = data.table(SSP_Scenario = scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO], Scenario = scenario[,Scenario], Year = seq(2010,2100,1),
- climate =as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),climate])),
cyber=as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),cyber])),
financial =as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),financial])))
+ ##this creates the table for the shocksRecords.csv file. so contains only the shock value, hence where no shock the value is 0
shockValues = data.table(Year = rep(seq(2010,2100,1),6),shock = rep(c("protectionism","automation","diet","cyber","climate","financial"), each=91),
TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER = 0,
TRANSPORT_COST = 0,
@@ -45,14 +53,16 @@ createShockFile = function(scenario){
IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER = 0,
FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER = 0)
+ ##add trend values to shocks.csv file by drawing a random value from the distributions file for each parameter for the type of trend
for (trendType in c("protectionism", "automation", "diet")){
if(as.logical(rbinom(1,size=1,prob =shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),get(trendType)]))){
for(paramName in shockDistFile[shock == trendType]$pname){
-
+ #draw a random parameter value from the distribution file
randomValue = drawValue(trendType, paramName)
#put in records table
shockValues[shock == trendType, c(paramName) := randomValue * paramValues[,trendYearValue]]
-
+ ##add the value to the shocks.csv table and adjust depending on whether multiplicative or additive, also adjust value
+ ##according to year of implementation
if(shockDistFile[shock == trendType & pname == paramName]$type == 'additive'){
paramValues[,c(paramName) := get(paramName) + randomValue * trendYearValue]
}
@@ -63,9 +73,9 @@ createShockFile = function(scenario){
}
}
-
+ ##do the same as above for individual year shocks, don't adjust by implementation year as cyber shocks and financial shocks are single year occurances
for(year in paramValues[,Year]){
- for (shockType in names(shocksHappen)[4:6]){
+ for (shockType in names(shocksHappen)[4:5]){
if(shocksHappen[Year == year, get(shockType)]){
for(paramName in shockDistFile[shock == shockType]$pname){
@@ -85,7 +95,9 @@ createShockFile = function(scenario){
}
}
- #if negative set to zero, or need to change shock distributions so zero can't happen
+
+
+ #if negative set to zero
for(col in names(paramValues)) set(paramValues, i=which(paramValues[[col]]<0), j=col, value=0)
ensDir=file.path(scenario[,Ensemble],scenario[,Scenario])
@@ -102,14 +114,8 @@ createShockFile = function(scenario){
drawValue <- function(shockType, paramName){
- randomValue = runif(1, abs(shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$min),
- abs(shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$max))
-
- if (shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$min <0){
- randomValue = randomValue*-1
- }
-
- randomValue
+ runif(1, shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$min,
+ shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$max)
}
plumDirectory = "/exports/csce/eddie/geos/groups/LURG/models/PLUM"
--
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