From 3097a5539efc0469850ea9863c4eb75982ffa0be Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Bart Arendarczyk <s1924442@ed.ac.uk>
Date: Fri, 2 Jun 2023 17:36:40 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Various carbon market changes and fixes.
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 4 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 4 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 14 +++----
src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxItem.java | 22 +++++++---
src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxReader.java | 42 ++++---------------
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java | 4 +-
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 18 ++++++--
.../lurg/demand/AbstractSSPDemandManager.java | 2 +-
.../ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostReader.java | 3 +-
9 files changed, 56 insertions(+), 57 deletions(-)
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 9bb90990..2a0a6d8f 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@
PARAMETER minDemandFraction(commodity, all_types) min demand for each cereal crop as factor of all cereals;
PARAMETER seedAndWasteRate(all_types) rate of use for seed and waste combined;
PARAMETER subsidyRate(all_types) rates of subsidy compared to costs;
+ PARAMETER tradeAdjustmentCostRate(import_types) cost of adjusting net imports;
PARAMETER previousLandCoverArea(land_cover, location) land cover area in Mha;
PARAMETER maxCroplandArea(location);
@@ -70,7 +71,6 @@
SCALAR maxGrossLccRate max rate of gross land cover change;
SCALAR maxFertChange max increase in total fertilizer use;
SCALAR maxIrrigChange max increase in total irrigation use;
- SCALAR tradeAdjustmentCostRate;
SCALAR forestManagementCost cost $1000 per ha;
@@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ $gdxin
MAX_NET_IMPORT_CONSTRAINT(import_types) .. netImportAmount(import_types) =L= maxNetImport(import_types);
MIN_NET_IMPORT_CONSTRAINT(import_types) .. netImportAmount(import_types) =G= minNetImport(import_types);
- TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_CALC(import_types) .. tradeAdjustmentCost(import_types) =E= power(netImportAmount(import_types) - previousNetImport(import_types), 2) * tradeAdjustmentCostRate;
+ TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_CALC(import_types) .. tradeAdjustmentCost(import_types) =E= power(netImportAmount(import_types) - previousNetImport(import_types), 2) * tradeAdjustmentCostRate(import_types);
* No imports or exports of pasture allowed
importAmount.FX('pasture') = 0;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 3b1a7379..bb165cc0 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -597,6 +597,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double INIT_CARBON_STOCK = getDoubleProperty("INIT_CARBON_STOCK", 100.0); // MtC-eq
public static final String CARBON_OPTIONS_FILENAME = getProperty("CARBON_OPTIONS_FILENAME", "carbon_options.csv"); // config for what is included in carbon market
public static final String CARBON_OPTIONS_FILE = getProperty("CARBON_OPTIONS_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + CARBON_OPTIONS_FILENAME);
- public static final double CARBON_FOREST_MAX_PROPORTION = getDoubleProperty("CARBON_FOREST_MAX_PROPORTION", 0.2); // maximum proportion of land cover as carbon forest
+ public static final double CARBON_FOREST_MAX_PROPORTION = getDoubleProperty("CARBON_FOREST_MAX_PROPORTION", 1.0); // maximum proportion of land cover as carbon forest
+ public static final double CARBON_FOREST_CONVERSION_PENALTY = getDoubleProperty("CARBON_FOREST_CONVERSION_PENALTY", 10.0); // Penality for removing carbon forest 1000$/ha
+ public static final double CARBON_TRADE_ADJ_COST_MULTIPLIER = getDoubleProperty("CARBON_TRADE_ADJ_COST_MULTIPLIER", 0.1); // No physical goods traded so can have lower cost
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index c3871411..72d76eec 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -637,16 +637,12 @@ public class ModelMain {
}
private Map<CompositeCountry, CarbonUsageData> getInitialCarbonUsageData() {
- Map<CompositeCountry, CarbonUsageData> carbonUsageDataMap;
- if (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN) {
- carbonUsageDataMap = new HashMap<CompositeCountry, CarbonUsageData>();
- for (CompositeCountry cc : CountryManager.getInstance().getAllCompositeCountries()) {
- CarbonUsageData cuData = new CarbonUsageData(0, 0, 0);
- carbonUsageDataMap.put(cc, cuData);
- }
- } else {
- carbonUsageDataMap = deserializeCarbonUsage();
+ Map<CompositeCountry, CarbonUsageData> carbonUsageDataMap = new HashMap<>();
+ for (CompositeCountry cc : CountryManager.getInstance().getAllCompositeCountries()) {
+ CarbonUsageData cuData = new CarbonUsageData(0, 0, 0);
+ carbonUsageDataMap.put(cc, cuData);
}
+
return carbonUsageDataMap;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxItem.java
index f8602297..a6f2210e 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxItem.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxItem.java
@@ -15,14 +15,27 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.types.LandProtectionType;
public class CarbonFluxItem implements RasterItem, Serializable {
private static final long serialVersionUID = 440720456140537815L;
Map<LccKey, Double> carbonCreditRate = new HashMap<LccKey, Double>();
-
- public void calcCarbonCreditRate(Double[] cFluxes) {
+ public void calcCarbonCreditRate(Double[] cFluxes, LandCoverType lcType) {
+ double totalFlux = 0;
+ for (int i = 0; i <= ModelConfig.CARBON_HORIZON; i++) {
+ totalFlux += cFluxes[i];
+ }
- }
+ totalFlux *= -1; // flip sign so positive mean net carbon uptake
+ // Tallying up different in net carbon uptake for each LCC
+ // so that carbonCreditRate(A -> B) = net C uptake for land cover b - net C uptake for land cover A
+ for (LandCoverType otherLc : LandCoverType.getConvertibleTypes()) {
+ if (otherLc.equals(lcType))
+ continue;
+ // Converting to this type so add to carbon credit rate
+ carbonCreditRate.merge(new LccKey(otherLc, lcType), totalFlux, Double::sum);
+ // Converting from this type so subtract from carbon credit rate
+ //carbonCreditRate.merge(new LccKey(lcType, otherLc), -totalFlux, Double::sum);
+ }
+ }
-
public void setCarbonCreditRate(LccKey lcType, double cFlux) {
carbonCreditRate.put(lcType, cFlux);
}
@@ -31,7 +44,6 @@ public class CarbonFluxItem implements RasterItem, Serializable {
carbonCreditRate.put(LccKey.createKey(fromLc, toLc), cFlux);
}
-
public double getCarbonCreditRate(LandCoverType fromLc, LandCoverType toLc) {
return carbonCreditRate.getOrDefault(LccKey.createKey(fromLc, toLc), Double.NaN);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxReader.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxReader.java
index 99f89a6b..c2367e79 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxReader.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/carbon/CarbonFluxReader.java
@@ -13,7 +13,6 @@ import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LandUseItem;
-import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LccKey;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.LandCoverType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
import ac.sac.raster.RasterHeaderDetails;
@@ -35,44 +34,19 @@ public class CarbonFluxReader {
keyMap = getRasterKeys(cFluxData);
modelYear = ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR : timestep.getYear();
long startTime = System.currentTimeMillis();
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_TO_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.NATURAL, LandCoverType.PASTURE), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.NATURAL, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.NATURAL, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_TO_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.NATURAL, LandCoverType.CROPLAND), false);
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_TO_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.NATURAL), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_TO_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.CROPLAND), false);
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST, LandCoverType.NATURAL), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST, LandCoverType.PASTURE), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST, LandCoverType.CROPLAND), false);
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST, LandCoverType.NATURAL), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST, LandCoverType.PASTURE), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_TO_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST, LandCoverType.CROPLAND), false);
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_TO_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.NATURAL), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_TO_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.PASTURE), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST), false);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_TO_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST), false);
-
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.NATURAL, LandCoverType.NATURAL), true);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.PASTURE), true);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST), true);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST), true);
- readLccData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, new LccKey(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.CROPLAND), true);
+
+ //readData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_NTRL_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, LandCoverType.NATURAL);
+ //readData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_PAST_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, LandCoverType.PASTURE);
+ readData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, LandCoverType.CARBON_FOREST);
+ //readData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_FORS_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, LandCoverType.TIMBER_FOREST);
+ //readData(ModelConfig.C_FLUX_CROP_FILENAME, cFluxData, landUseRaster, LandCoverType.CROPLAND);
LogWriter.println("Reading carbon data took " + (System.currentTimeMillis() - startTime) + " ms");
return cFluxData;
}
- public void readLccData(String fileName, CarbonFluxRasterSet carbonFluxData, RasterSet<LandUseItem> landUseRaster, LccKey lccKey, boolean neeCalc) {
+ public void readData(String fileName, CarbonFluxRasterSet carbonFluxData, RasterSet<LandUseItem> landUseRaster, LandCoverType lcType) {
long startTime = System.currentTimeMillis();
int maxYear = Math.floorDiv(modelYear - 10, ModelConfig.CARBON_DATA_TIMESTEP_SIZE) * ModelConfig.CARBON_DATA_TIMESTEP_SIZE + 10;
int maxAge = modelYear - ModelConfig.CARBON_DATA_MIN_YEAR;
@@ -108,7 +82,7 @@ public class CarbonFluxReader {
if (landUseRaster.containsKey(key)) {
CarbonFluxItem cfItem = carbonFluxData.get(key.getCol(), key.getRow());
LandUseItem luItem = landUseRaster.get(key);
- cfItem.calcCarbonCreditRate(map.get(key));
+ cfItem.calcCarbonCreditRate(map.get(key), lcType);
}
}
LogWriter.println("Reading " + fileName + " took " + (System.currentTimeMillis() - startTime) + " ms");
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index 94b83d63..552b10b7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -191,7 +191,9 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
}
public void setStockToTargetLevel(double targetStockUseRatio) {
- stockLevel = production * targetStockUseRatio;
+ if (!Double.isNaN(production)) {
+ stockLevel = production * targetStockUseRatio;
+ }
}
public double getTradeChangeUp(double maxOfProdOrSupply) {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index b56b4591..3603d4a5 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -380,12 +380,24 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
addScalar(inDB, "maxIrrigChange", (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN
&& inputData.getTimestep().isInitialTimestep()) ? 1 : ModelConfig.MAX_IRRIG_CHANGE, 6);
+ // Setting the same trade adjustment cost for all commodities apart from carbonCredits.
+ // Could have individual values if needed
+
+ GAMSParameter tradeAdjCostP = inDB.addParameter("tradeAdjustmentCostRate", 1);
double tradeAdjCost = ModelConfig.getAdjParam("TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE");
- addScalar(inDB, "tradeAdjustmentCostRate", tradeAdjCost, 6);
- // Forestry
- GAMSParameter maxRotaIntensityP = inDB.addParameter("maxRotationIntensity", 1);
+ for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
+ setGamsParamValue(tradeAdjCostP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), tradeAdjCost, -1);
+ }
+ for (WoodType wType : WoodType.values()) {
+ setGamsParamValue(tradeAdjCostP.addRecord(wType.getName()), tradeAdjCost, -1);
+ }
+
+ setGamsParamValue(tradeAdjCostP.addRecord("carbonCredits"),
+ ModelConfig.CARBON_TRADE_ADJ_COST_MULTIPLIER * tradeAdjCost, -1);
+
+ // Forestry
Map<WoodType, TradeConstraint> woodTradeConstraints = countryInput.getWoodTradeConstraints();
Map<WoodType, CountryPrice> woodPrices = countryInput.getWoodPrices();
Map<WoodType, Double> woodDemandMap = countryInput.getWoodDemand();
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractSSPDemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractSSPDemandManager.java
index 87e6fe88..2be319e7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractSSPDemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractSSPDemandManager.java
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractSSPDemandManager extends AbstractDemandManager {
protected double getCarbonDemand(SingleCountry country, int year) {
- if (!ModelConfig.IS_CARBON_ON)
+ if (!ModelConfig.IS_CARBON_ON | ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN)
return 0;
SspData sd = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, year, country);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostReader.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostReader.java
index 8779d240..7512a019 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostReader.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/ConversionCostReader.java
@@ -80,7 +80,8 @@ public class ConversionCostReader {
conversionCosts.put(key, ModelConfig.getAdjParam("FOREST_CONVERSION_COST") * costAdjFactor);
break;
case CARBON_FOREST:
- conversionCosts.put(key, ModelConfig.getAdjParam("FOREST_CONVERSION_COST") * costAdjFactor);
+ conversionCosts.put(key, ModelConfig.getAdjParam("FOREST_CONVERSION_COST") * costAdjFactor
+ + ModelConfig.CARBON_FOREST_CONVERSION_PENALTY);
break;
case NATURAL:
conversionCosts.put(key, ModelConfig.getAdjParam("NATURAL_CONVERSION_COST") * costAdjFactor);
--
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