From 3bfba61d0aa8885d57d22a3d889d93bb66438350 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 08:17:49 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Have different import and export prices
---
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 5 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 34 ++----
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java | 8 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java | 47 ++++++++
.../lurg/country/ImportExportConstraint.java | 19 ++++
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java | 101 ++++++++++--------
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 14 ++-
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationTest.java | 2 +-
.../ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterTest.java | 2 +-
9 files changed, 148 insertions(+), 84 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/country/ImportExportConstraint.java
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 842f780b..0c575fb8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -147,8 +147,9 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT = getDoubleProperty("POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT", 40.0); // in millions, smaller countries are aggregated on a regional basis
public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 2.0);
- public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.2); // in international trade
-
+ public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.15); // in international trade
+ public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR", 1.2); // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
+
public static final int NUM_CEREAL_CATEGORIES = getIntProperty("NUM_CEREAL_CATEGORIES", 5);
public static final int NUM_PASTURE_CATEGORIES = getIntProperty("NUM_PASTURE_CATEGORIES", 1);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index a2cf9493..4396f933 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountryManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryAgent;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryBoundaryRaster;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryBoundaryReader;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsRasterOutput;
import ac.ed.lurg.demand.BaseConsumpManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.demand.DemandManager;
@@ -51,7 +52,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
private CompositeCountryManager compositeCountryManager;
private RasterHeaderDetails desiredProjection;
- private Map<CropType, Double> prevWorldPrices;
+ private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> prevWorldPrices;
private RasterSet<LandUseItem> prevLandUseRaster;
public static void main(String[] args) {
@@ -72,11 +73,11 @@ public class ModelMain {
countryAgents = createCountryAgents(compositeCountryManager.getAll());
// in first timestep we don't have this info, but ok as constrained to import/export specified amount
- prevWorldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ prevWorldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
for (CropType c : CropType.getImportedTypes())
- prevWorldPrices.put(c, 0.3);
+ prevWorldPrices.put(c, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.3));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, 1.4);
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(1.2));
}
/* run the model */
@@ -123,7 +124,6 @@ public class ModelMain {
catch (Exception e) {
LogWriter.printlnError("Exception processing " + ca.getCountry() + " will continue with other countries");
LogWriter.print(e);
- System.exit(1);
}
if (result == null) {
@@ -151,17 +151,17 @@ public class ModelMain {
// Look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
- double prevPrice = prevWorldPrices.get(crop);
+ GlobalPrice prevPrice = prevWorldPrices.get(crop);
if (!totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) || !totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop)) {
- LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for %s not updated (still %.3f), as no imports or no exports for it", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice));
+ LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for %s not updated (still %s), as no imports or no exports for it", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice));
continue;
}
double imports = totalImportCommodities.get(crop);
double exports = totalExportCommodities.get(crop) * (1.0-ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES);
- double adjustedPrice = updateMarketPrices(prevPrice, imports, exports);
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Price for %s updated from %.3f (imports %.0f, exports %.0f) to %.3f ", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.updateMarketPrices(imports, exports);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Price for %s updated from %s (imports amount %.0f, exports amount %.0f) to %s ", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
prevWorldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
}
@@ -173,22 +173,6 @@ public class ModelMain {
prevLandUseRaster = globalLandUseRaster;
}
- public double updateMarketPrices(double previousPrice, double demand, double supply) {
- if (demand > 0 || supply > 0) {
- double ratio;
-
- if (demand > supply)
- ratio = (demand-supply)/demand;
- else
- ratio = (demand-supply)/supply;
-
- double adjustment = Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
- return previousPrice * adjustment;
- }
- else {
- return previousPrice;
- }
- }
private BufferedWriter getFileWriter(Timestep timestep, String file, String columnHeadings) throws IOException {
if (timestep.isInitialTimestep()) {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index be122dbf..bdc07ee2 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return country;
}
- public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices) {
+ public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices) {
currentTimestep = timestep;
this.countryYieldSurfaces = countryYieldSurfaces;
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
}
else {
// optimize areas and intensity
- GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(projectedDemand, worldInputPrices);
+ GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(projectedDemand, worldPrices);
GamsRasterOptimiser opti = new GamsRasterOptimiser(input);
LogWriter.println("Running " + country.getName() + ", currentTimestep " + currentTimestep);
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return null;
}
- private GamsRasterInput getGamsRasterInput(Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices) {
+ private GamsRasterInput getGamsRasterInput(Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices) {
GamsRasterOutput prevOutput;
Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjs;
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
maxOfProdOrSupply.put(entry.getKey(), cropUsage.getProduction() + Math.max(netImports, 0));
}
- GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputPrices, baseNetImport, maxOfProdOrSupply, cropAdjs, calibrate);
+ GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(country, projectedDemand, worldPrices, baseNetImport, maxOfProdOrSupply, cropAdjs, calibrate);
GamsRasterInput input = new GamsRasterInput(currentTimestep, countryYieldSurfaces, prevOutput.getLandUses(), irrigationCostRaster, countryLevelInputs);
return input;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d0666ce2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.country;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+
+public class GlobalPrice {
+ double importPrice;
+ double exportPrice;
+
+ public GlobalPrice(double importPrice, double exportPrice) {
+ this.importPrice = importPrice;
+ this.exportPrice = exportPrice;
+ }
+
+ public static GlobalPrice createInitial(double exportPrice) {
+ return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice * ModelConfig.TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR / (1-ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES), exportPrice);
+ }
+
+ public double getImportPrice() {
+ return importPrice;
+ }
+
+ public double getExportPrice() {
+ return exportPrice;
+ }
+
+ public GlobalPrice updateMarketPrices(double demand, double supply) {
+ if (demand > 0 || supply > 0) {
+ double ratio;
+
+ if (demand > supply)
+ ratio = (demand-supply)/demand;
+ else
+ ratio = (demand-supply)/supply;
+
+ double adjustment = Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
+ return new GlobalPrice(importPrice * adjustment, exportPrice * adjustment);
+ }
+ else {
+ return this;
+ }
+ }
+
+ @Override
+ public String toString() {
+ return String.format("import=%.3f export=%.3f", importPrice, exportPrice);
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/ImportExportConstraint.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/ImportExportConstraint.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c881d924
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/ImportExportConstraint.java
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.country;
+
+public class ImportExportConstraint {
+ double minNetImport;
+ double maxNetImport;
+
+ public ImportExportConstraint(double minNetImport, double maxNetImport) {
+ this.minNetImport = minNetImport;
+ this.maxNetImport = maxNetImport;
+ }
+
+ public double getMinNetImport() {
+ return minNetImport;
+ }
+
+ public double getMaxNetImport() {
+ return maxNetImport;
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
index d22f1d5a..eed98aa4 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
@@ -5,6 +5,8 @@ import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountry;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.ImportExportConstraint;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
@@ -12,13 +14,10 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private CompositeCountry country; // not really required but useful for debugging
private Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand;
- private Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices;
- private Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport;
- private Map<CropType, Double> minNetImport;
+ private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices;
+ private Map<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> importConstraints;
private Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments;
private boolean calibrateToObserved;
-
- // limits to areas for each location and crop
/* private double maxLandUseChange;
private double meatEfficiency;
@@ -27,52 +26,34 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private double landChangeEnergy;*/
- private GamsCountryInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices,
- Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> minNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments, boolean calibrateToObserved) {
+ private GamsCountryInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices,
+ Map<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> importConstraints, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments, boolean calibrateToObserved) {
super();
this.country = country;
this.projectedDemand = projectedDemand;
- this.worldInputPrices = worldInputPrices;
- this.maxNetImport = maxNetImport;
- this.minNetImport = minNetImport;
+ this.worldPrices = worldPrices;
+ this.importConstraints = importConstraints;
this.cropAdjustments = cropAdjustments;
this.calibrateToObserved = calibrateToObserved;
}
public GamsCountryInput(GamsCountryInput gamsInput, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjs) {
- this(gamsInput.country, gamsInput.projectedDemand, gamsInput.worldInputPrices, gamsInput.maxNetImport, gamsInput.minNetImport, cropAdjs, false);
+ this(gamsInput.country, gamsInput.projectedDemand, gamsInput.worldPrices, gamsInput.importConstraints, cropAdjs, false);
}
- public static GamsCountryInput createInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices,
+ public static GamsCountryInput createInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices,
Map<CropType, Double> baseNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> maxOfProdOrSupply, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments, boolean calibrateToObserved) {
-
- Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport;
- Map<CropType, Double> minNetImport;
-
- if (calibrateToObserved) { // this condition is no required as calibration now done from GasmRasterOptimiser rather than in GAMS script
- maxNetImport = baseNetImport;
- minNetImport = baseNetImport;
-
- cropAdjustments = new HashMap<CropType, Double>(); // recreate, but might have been null is this case anyway
- for (CropType c : CropType.getNonMeatTypes()) {
- cropAdjustments.put(c, 1.0);
- }
-
- }
- else {
- double allowedImportChange = ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE;
- maxNetImport = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
- minNetImport = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
- for (Map.Entry<CropType, Double> entry : baseNetImport.entrySet()) {
- CropType c = entry.getKey();
- double change = allowedImportChange * maxOfProdOrSupply.get(c);
- maxNetImport.put(c, entry.getValue() + change);
- minNetImport.put(c, entry.getValue() - change);
- }
+ double allowedImportChange = ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE;
+ Map<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> importConstraints = new HashMap<CropType, ImportExportConstraint>();
+
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, Double> entry : baseNetImport.entrySet()) {
+ CropType c = entry.getKey();
+ double change = allowedImportChange * maxOfProdOrSupply.get(c);
+ importConstraints.put(c, new ImportExportConstraint(entry.getValue() - change, entry.getValue() + change));
}
- return new GamsCountryInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputPrices, maxNetImport, minNetImport, cropAdjustments, calibrateToObserved);
+ return new GamsCountryInput(country, projectedDemand, worldPrices, importConstraints, cropAdjustments, calibrateToObserved);
}
@@ -84,16 +65,12 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
return projectedDemand;
}
- public Map<CropType, Double> getWorldInputPrices() {
- return worldInputPrices;
+ public Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> getWorldPrices() {
+ return worldPrices;
}
-
- public Map<CropType, Double> getMaxNetImport() {
- return maxNetImport;
- }
-
- public Map<CropType, Double> getMinNetImport() {
- return minNetImport;
+
+ public Map<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> getImportConstraints() {
+ return importConstraints;
}
// public Map<CropType, Double> getMinFeedAmount() {
@@ -119,4 +96,36 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
public boolean isCalibrateToObserved() {
return calibrateToObserved;
}
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getMinNetImport() {
+ Map<CropType, Double> netImport = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> entry : importConstraints.entrySet()) {
+ netImport.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue().getMinNetImport());
+ }
+ return netImport;
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getMaxNetImport() {
+ Map<CropType, Double> netImport = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, ImportExportConstraint> entry : importConstraints.entrySet()) {
+ netImport.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue().getMaxNetImport());
+ }
+ return netImport;
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getWorldImportPrices() {
+ Map<CropType, Double> prices = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, GlobalPrice> entry : worldPrices.entrySet()) {
+ prices.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue().getImportPrice());
+ }
+ return prices;
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getWorldExportPrices() {
+ Map<CropType, Double> prices = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, GlobalPrice> entry : worldPrices.entrySet()) {
+ prices.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue().getExportPrice());
+ }
+ return prices;
+ }
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index 0c71372c..7c8f7aec 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -7,10 +7,12 @@ import java.util.Map.Entry;
import java.util.Vector;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.ImportExportConstraint;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
-import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LandUseItem;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.Intensity;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.IrrigationItem;
+import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LandUseItem;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.LandCoverType;
@@ -167,16 +169,18 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
if (DEBUG) {
LogWriter.println("\nImport-export, min net imports, max net imports, import price, export price");
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
+ ImportExportConstraint iec = countryInput.getImportConstraints().get(crop);
+ GlobalPrice gp = countryInput.getWorldPrices().get(crop);
+
LogWriter.println(String.format(" %15s, \t %5.1f, \t %5.1f, \t %5.3f, \t %5.3f",
- crop.getGamsName(), countryInput.getMinNetImport().get(crop), countryInput.getMaxNetImport().get(crop),
- countryInput.getWorldInputPrices().get(crop), countryInput.getWorldInputPrices().get(crop)));
+ crop.getGamsName(), iec.getMinNetImport(), iec.getMaxNetImport(), gp.getImportPrice(), gp.getExportPrice()));
}
}
addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("minNetImport", 1), countryInput.getMinNetImport(), false);
addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("maxNetImport", 1), countryInput.getMaxNetImport(), false);
- addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldImportPrices", 1), countryInput.getWorldInputPrices(), false);
- addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldExportPrices", 1), countryInput.getWorldInputPrices(), false);
+ addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldImportPrices", 1), countryInput.getWorldImportPrices(), false);
+ addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldExportPrices", 1), countryInput.getWorldExportPrices(), false);
addScalar(inDB.addParameter("meatEfficency", 0), countryInput.getMeatEfficiency());
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("\nMeatEfficiency: " + countryInput.getMeatEfficiency());
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationTest.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationTest.java
index aac6c0de..b5867c0d 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationTest.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationTest.java
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ public class GamsLocationTest {
}
private void run() {
- GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(new CompositeCountry("Test"), getProjectedDemand(), getWorldInputEnergy(), getBaseNetImport(), null, null, true);
+ GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(new CompositeCountry("Test"), getProjectedDemand(), null, null, null, null, true);
GamsLocationInput gamsInput = new GamsLocationInput(new Timestep(0), getYields(), getPreviousArea(), getIrrigationCosts(), countryLevelInputs);
GamsLocationOptimiser opti = new GamsLocationOptimiser(gamsInput);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterTest.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterTest.java
index 8b1c1b7e..d67e8122 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterTest.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterTest.java
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ public class GamsRasterTest extends GamsLocationTest {
}
private void run() {
- GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(new CompositeCountry("Test"), getProjectedDemand(), getWorldInputEnergy(), getBaseNetImport(), null, null, true);
+ GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(new CompositeCountry("Test"), getProjectedDemand(), null, null, null, null, true);
GamsRasterInput input = new GamsRasterInput(new Timestep(0), getYieldRaster(), getPreviousAreaRaster(), getIrrigationCost(), countryLevelInputs);
GamsRasterOptimiser opti = new GamsRasterOptimiser(input);
--
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