diff --git a/data/shockDistributions.csv b/data/shockDistributions.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0ff6362b4513739d78c9f44a124b9006d3426c0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/shockDistributions.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+shock,pname,min,max,type
+protectionism,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,0.1,0.2,additive
+protectionism ,TRANSPORT_COST,0.5,1,multiplicative
+protectionism ,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,0.05,0.1,additive
+automation,TRANSPORT_COST,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
+automation,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,-0.05,-0.1,additive
+automation,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.002,0.004,additive
+automation,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,0.025,0.05,additive
+automation,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
+automation,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,-0.25,-0.5,multiplicative
+automation,IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER,-0.25,-0.5,additive
+automation,IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER,0.1,0.2,additive
+diet,RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.4,0.6,additive
+diet,MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,0.4,0.6,additive
+cyber,TRANSPORT_COST,0.5,1,multiplicative
+cyber,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,0.1,0.2,additive
+cyber,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,-0.002,-0.004,additive
+cyber,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,-0.025,-0.05,additive
+cyber,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,0.25,0.5,multiplicative
+cyber,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,0.25,0.5,multiplicative
+cyber,IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER,0.25,0.5,additive
+cyber,IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER,-0.1,-0.2,additive
+financial,FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER,0.5,1,additive
diff --git a/data/shockProbabilities.csv b/data/shockProbabilities.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..98a6ef059e752606e22604c7258a1eb9609f9331
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/shockProbabilities.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+ssp,protectionism,automation,diet,climate,cyber,financial
+SSP1,0.1,0.5,0.9,0.01,0.05,0.01
+SSP2,0.7,0.5,0.3,0.07,0.05,0.03
+SSP3,0.9,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.09
+SSP4,0.3,0.7,0.3,0.09,0.07,0.05
+SSP5,0.1,0.9,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.03
diff --git a/data/sims/shocks_params.csv b/data/sims/shocks_params.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9582d147843a5156eae7e792d7acce969adb3097
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/sims/shocks_params.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+Ensemble,pname,dist,xmin,xmax,x05,xmode,x95,value
+SSP1,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,1.2,1.4,1.8,
+SSP2,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2,
+SSP3,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.3,0.5,0.8,
+SSP4,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.5,0.8,1,
+SSP5,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.5,0.8,1.2,
+SSP1,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.02,0.023,0.026,
+SSP2,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023,
+SSP3,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.011,0.014,0.017,
+SSP4,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.014,0.017,0.02,
+SSP5,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.023,0.026,0.029,
+SSP1,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP2,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP3,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP4,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP5,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP1,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP2,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP3,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP4,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP5,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP1,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.2,2.6,1.4,2,2.3,
+SSP2,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.2,2.6,1.1,1.4,1.7,
+SSP3,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.2,2.6,0.4,1.1,1.7,
+SSP4,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.2,2.6,0.8,1.7,2.3,
+SSP5,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.2,2.6,0.4,0.8,1.4,
+SSP1,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP2,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP3,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP4,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP5,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,,
+SSP1,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0,0.0006,0.0003,0.0004,0.0005,
+SSP2,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0,0.0006,0.0002,0.0003,0.0004,
+SSP3,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0,0.0006,0.00005,0.00015,0.0002,
+SSP4,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0,0.0006,0.0001,0.0003,0.0005,
+SSP5,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0,0.0006,0.00005,0.00015,0.0003,
+SSP1,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,
+SSP2,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52,
+SSP3,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.42,0.45,0.48,
+SSP4,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.45,0.5,0.55,
+SSP5,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.55,
+SSP1,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.225,0.275,0.3,
+SSP2,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225,
+SSP3,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.15,0.2,0.25,
+SSP4,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.2,0.225,0.275,
+SSP5,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.1,0.15,0.175,
+SSP1,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,,
+SSP2,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,,
+SSP3,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,,
+SSP4,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,,
+SSP5,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,,
+SSP1,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,1.01,1.02,1.04,
+SSP2,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01,
+SSP3,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.98,1,1.02,
+SSP4,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.98,1,1.02,
+SSP5,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,1,1.01,1.02,
+SSP1,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.3,0.14,0.2,0.25,
+SSP2,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.3,0.06,0.1,0.14,
+SSP3,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.3,0.02,0.04,0.07,
+SSP4,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.3,0.04,0.06,0.1,
+SSP5,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.3,0.02,0.04,0.06,
+SSP1,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.7,0.8,0.85,
+SSP2,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75,
+SSP3,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.55,0.65,0.75,
+SSP4,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.6,0.75,0.85,
+SSP5,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.55,0.6,0.7,
+SSP1,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,,
+SSP2,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,,
+SSP3,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,,
+SSP4,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,,
+SSP5,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,,
+SSP1,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP2,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP3,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP4,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP5,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP1,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP2,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP3,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP4,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP5,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,,
+SSP1,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP1_v9_130325
+SSP2,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325
+SSP3,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP3_v9_130325
+SSP4,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP4_v9_130325
+SSP5,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP5_v9_130325
+SSP1,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.003,0.005,0.007,
+SSP2,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003,
+SSP3,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,-0.001,0,0.001,
+SSP4,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0,0.002,0.005,
+SSP5,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.002,0.004,0.005,
+SSP1,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.6,0.8,1,
+SSP2,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2,
+SSP3,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,1.2,1.5,1.8,
+SSP4,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,1,1.2,1.5,
+SSP5,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.3,0.6,0.8,
+SSP1,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.065,0.08,
+SSP2,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.06,
+SSP3,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.06,
+SSP4,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.08,
+SSP5,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.02,0.035,0.05,
+SSP1,RCP,rcp,,,,,,ssp1
+SSP2,RCP,rcp,,,,,,ssp2
+SSP3,RCP,rcp,,,,,,ssp3
+SSP4,RCP,rcp,,,,,,ssp4
+SSP5,RCP,rcp,,,,,,ssp5
+SSP1,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp1
+SSP2,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2
+SSP3,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp3
+SSP4,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp4
+SSP5,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp5
+SSP1,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp1
+SSP2,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2
+SSP3,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp3
+SSP4,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp4
+SSP5,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp5
+SSP1,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,value,,,,,,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv
+SSP2,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,value,,,,,,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv
+SSP3,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,value,,,,,,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv
+SSP4,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,value,,,,,,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv
+SSP5,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,value,,,,,,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv
+SSP1,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE
+SSP2,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE
+SSP3,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE
+SSP4,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE
+SSP5,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE
+SSP1,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP2,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP3,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP4,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP5,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP1,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.175,0.525,,,,
+SSP2,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.175,0.525,,,,
+SSP3,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.175,0.525,,,,
+SSP4,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.175,0.525,,,,
+SSP5,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.175,0.525,,,,
+SSP1,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.025,0.075,,,,
+SSP2,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.025,0.075,,,,
+SSP3,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.025,0.075,,,,
+SSP4,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.025,0.075,,,,
+SSP5,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.025,0.075,,,,
+SSP1,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP2,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP3,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP4,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP5,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,unif,0.15,0.45,,,,
+SSP1,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,value,,,,,,FALSE
+SSP2,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,value,,,,,,FALSE
+SSP3,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,value,,,,,,FALSE
+SSP4,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,value,,,,,,FALSE
+SSP5,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,value,,,,,,FALSE
diff --git a/data/sims/shocks_sims.csv b/data/sims/shocks_sims.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d94b701b01321bb8415c4e21d1696c784a3454d7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/sims/shocks_sims.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+Ensemble,Scenario,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,LAND_CHANGE_COST,MARKET_LAMBA,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,SSP_SCENARIO,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER,TRANSPORT_COST,RCP,BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILENAME,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN,YIELD_DIR_TOP,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO
+shocks/SSP1,s1,1.30660468251533,0.0228770160929893,1,1,1.95478849592337,1,0.000390070160965327,0.543143007232545,0.273082824305185,0.4,1.01533023412577,0.195035080482664,0.792464749320561,0.5,1,1,SSP1_v9_130325,0.0043697548242007,0.804684232679383,0.0625529531354358,rcp45,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.3,0.35,0.05,0.3,FALSE,rcp45,SSP1_RCP45
+shocks/SSP1,s2,1.54790984303127,0.0214839384786384,1.05,0.9,2.11331205428652,0.9,0.000439712506444229,0.522883961636984,0.260497349959828,0.45,1.00172299275499,0.219856253222114,0.762938815233838,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP1_v9_130325,0.00284782774978011,0.892981559287351,0.0534306136855851,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.340909090909091,0.397727272727273,0.0568181818181818,0.204545454545455,FALSE,rcp60,SSP1_RCP60
+shocks/SSP1,s3,1.03445985509982,0.0242169546991675,0.95,1.1,1.77763289140303,1.1,0.000336454765220775,0.560804997269742,0.284824516367045,0.35,1.02739549215156,0.168227382610388,0.818885342381086,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP1_v9_130325,0.00567673525237017,0.718456680365365,0.0707791804420796,rcp45,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.25,0.291666666666667,0.0416666666666667,0.416666666666667,FALSE,rcp45,SSP1_RCP45
+shocks/SSP1,s4,1.18011203692493,0.0222238146836663,1.025,0.85,2.21138114822018,1.15,0.000297658154750587,0.55187750477836,0.251190281847944,0.475,1.00900560184625,0.207081890146159,0.740803236535345,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP1_v9_130325,0.00366905314915087,0.763628922290554,0.0757348286419711,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.44,0.326666666666667,0.0333333333333333,0.2,FALSE,rcp60,SSP1_RCP60
+shocks/SSP1,s5,1.68712459733118,0.0251160485505954,0.925,1.05,1.87306648304096,0.95,0.000414163780292317,0.507738565320178,0.278743046214026,0.375,1.03435622986656,0.148829077375294,0.805387725330027,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP1_v9_130325,0.00641323525127281,0.955955002707142,0.0583130649033555,rcp45,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.230769230769231,0.423076923076923,0.0494505494505494,0.296703296703297,FALSE,rcp45,SSP1_RCP45
+shocks/SSP1,s6,1.42608431668559,0.020484656645973,0.975,0.95,1.64481941921207,1.05,0.000471149717022949,0.571197905518257,0.267233889736522,0.325,0.992019633340972,0.182541367124365,0.77884441384016,0.525,1.075,1.075,SSP1_v9_130325,0.00172654612000884,0.846202333458787,0.0665902063269412,rcp45,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.205479452054795,0.431506849315068,0.0753424657534247,0.287671232876712,FALSE,rcp45,SSP1_RCP45
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+shocks/SSP5,s1,0.811640789284124,0.0255478849592337,1,1,0.926049361002817,1,0.000181512340250704,0.518835921530899,0.154964919394384,0.4,1.00976578836866,0.0445126831921568,0.607535231658141,0.5,1,1,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00396307283703912,0.635905109239572,0.0374470532300597,rcp85,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.3,0.35,0.05,0.3,FALSE,rcp85,SSP5_RCP85
+shocks/SSP5,s2,0.950913447119588,0.0237763289140303,1.05,0.9,1.23043518805055,0.9,0.000257608797012638,0.504908658487231,0.130143746947899,0.45,1.00535092206312,0.057952756518755,0.581114670837621,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00350656990464916,0.803172883434773,0.0292208157420578,rcp85,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.340909090909091,0.397727272727273,0.0568181818181818,0.204545454545455,FALSE,rcp85,SSP5_RCP85
+shocks/SSP5,s3,0.677289103652929,0.0271331205428652,0.95,1.1,0.664652939726232,1.1,0.000116163234931558,0.532271087533741,0.181772616931047,0.35,1.01407716596062,0.0330090823549182,0.637061126457078,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00440316181646114,0.483175490607284,0.0465694046538295,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.25,0.291666666666667,0.0416666666666667,0.416666666666667,FALSE,rcp60,SSP5_RCP60
+shocks/SSP5,s4,0.747317644437761,0.0247306648304096,1.025,0.85,1.45469178672338,1.15,7.93381979158249e-05,0.525268234769637,0.114425141818419,0.475,1.00768988334135,0.0506301059058289,0.564769838803214,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00374921228054304,0.561543291189036,0.0531531191676086,rcp85,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.44,0.326666666666667,0.0333333333333333,0.2,FALSE,rcp85,SSP5_RCP85
+shocks/SSP5,s5,1.04992250232152,0.0281138114822018,0.925,1.05,0.795668089520843,0.95,0.000216547471988307,0.495007754878345,0.167458632596606,0.375,1.01702968341419,0.0261085152314528,0.621155549229806,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00470170224237687,0.92597876013111,0.0334097948543317,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.230769230769231,0.423076923076923,0.0494505494505494,0.296703296703297,FALSE,rcp60,SSP5_RCP60
+shocks/SSP5,s6,0.877067295765406,0.0224481941921206,0.975,0.95,0.5173527916633,1.05,0.000313672946680845,0.541248926790519,0.142918109877283,0.325,1.00220224990988,0.0388290458435607,0.594612271963882,0.525,1.075,1.075,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00317687389702778,0.713535210739204,0.0416869470585662,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.205479452054795,0.431506849315068,0.0753424657534247,0.287671232876712,FALSE,rcp60,SSP5_RCP60
+shocks/SSP5,s7,0.58751069527749,0.0263232635198016,1.075,1.15,1.06618988795323,0.85,0.000148917022380211,0.512293272169141,0.201170921929993,0.425,1.0118185538767,0.0684984107814919,0.659196675396549,0.425,0.975,0.975,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00417326471250381,0.387371373137462,0.0242651625750109,rcp85,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.333333333333333,0.216049382716049,0.0432098765432099,0.407407407407407,FALSE,rcp85,SSP5_RCP85
+shocks/SSP5,s8,0.63656265300707,0.0242793270700347,0.9625,1.075,0.994196843877722,0.875,5.57880317639894e-05,0.548097210546723,0.122911509299956,0.3125,1.01290330152184,0.0625634106275243,0.614178583117231,0.5375,0.9375,1.0375,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00290758694314781,0.318435110768064,0.0495172071217179,rcp85,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.284810126582278,0.420886075949367,0.0474683544303797,0.246835443037975,FALSE,rcp85,SSP5_RCP85
+shocks/SSP5,s9,0.912306235156161,0.0275864071203186,1.0625,0.875,0.423152127055958,1.075,0.000198549210969431,0.515617011061736,0.174266075912534,0.4125,1.00394584446383,0.0359763457745679,0.553106230961815,0.4375,1.0375,0.9375,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00406732813461995,0.673867127371789,0.0313602797328327,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.379120879120879,0.211538461538462,0.0631868131868132,0.346153846153846,FALSE,rcp60,SSP5_RCP60
+shocks/SSP5,s10,1.12908515409343,0.0213497915088738,1.0125,1.175,0.730943888305931,0.975,0.000282646540713303,0.528643312224093,0.14895359730641,0.4625,1.01934438411581,0.0212752105246864,0.646851462001555,0.4875,0.9875,0.9875,SSP5_v9_130325,0.00363366757352137,0.85777615593929,0.0395194273741454,rcp60,bioenergy_scenario_data.csv,TRUE,0.39041095890411,0.35958904109589,0.0650684931506849,0.184931506849315,FALSE,rcp60,SSP5_RCP60
diff --git a/scripts/createScenarios.sh b/scripts/createScenarios.sh
index a3dbec07c91240e62201d6bb866711d22f3626ce..5f859d1d8669ad75e94acb5d2f7aaecb28bcf17f 100755
--- a/scripts/createScenarios.sh
+++ b/scripts/createScenarios.sh
@@ -45,8 +45,14 @@ do
do
echo "${header[index]}"="${array[index]}" >> $config_file
done
-
+
echo "$scenario generated"
fi
+
done < $filename
+echo "Running R shock script"
+ module load R
+ R < /exports/csce/eddie/geos/groups/LURG/models/PLUM/plumv2/scripts/createShockFiles.R --no-save --args $1
+
+
diff --git a/scripts/createShockFiles.R b/scripts/createShockFiles.R
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a831a3411b3ba905b96bb94adefac5e2c2901b5c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/createShockFiles.R
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+# TODO: Add comment
+#
+# Author: rhenry2
+###############################################################################
+library(data.table)
+
+createShockFile = function(scenario){
+
+#setting all parameters to default values. If parameters are changed according to ssp then pull value from samp table, if not
+#set as default same as in config file or to a value that makes no change
+
+ paramValues = data.table(Year = seq(2010,2100,1),
+ trendYearValue = c(rep(0,16),seq(0.2,1,0.2),rep(1,70)),
+ TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER =scenario[,TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER],
+ TRANSPORT_COST = scenario[,TRANSPORT_COST],
+ TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = scenario[,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE],
+ MEAT_EFFICIENCY = scenario[,MEAT_EFFICIENCY],
+ FERTILISER_COST_PER_T=scenario[,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T],
+ OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = scenario[,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST],
+ TRANSPORT_LOSSES = 0.05,
+ IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = 1.0,
+ RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0.0,
+ MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0.0,
+ IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER = 1.0,
+ FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER = 1.0)
+
+ paramValues[, names(paramValues) := lapply(.SD, as.numeric)]
+
+ shocksHappen = data.table(SSP_Scenario = scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO], Scenario = scenario[,Scenario], Year = seq(2010,2100,1),
+ climate =as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),climate])),
+ cyber=as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),cyber])),
+ financial =as.logical(rbinom(91,size=1,prob = shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),financial])))
+
+ shockValues = data.table(Year = rep(seq(2010,2100,1),6),shock = rep(c("protectionism","automation","diet","cyber","climate","financial"), each=91),
+ TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER = 0,
+ TRANSPORT_COST = 0,
+ TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0,
+ MEAT_EFFICIENCY = 0,
+ FERTILISER_COST_PER_T=0,
+ OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = 0,
+ TRANSPORT_LOSSES = 0,
+ IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = 0,
+ RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0,
+ MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = 0,
+ IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER = 0,
+ FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER = 0)
+
+ for (trendType in c("protectionism", "automation", "diet")){
+ if(as.logical(rbinom(1,size=1,prob =shockProbs[ssp == substr(scenario[,SSP_SCENARIO],1,4),get(trendType)]))){
+ for(paramName in shockDistFile[shock == trendType]$pname){
+
+ randomValue = drawValue(trendType, paramName)
+ #put in records table
+ shockValues[shock == trendType, c(paramName) := randomValue * paramValues[,trendYearValue]]
+
+ if(shockDistFile[shock == trendType & pname == paramName]$type == 'additive'){
+ paramValues[,c(paramName) := get(paramName) + randomValue * trendYearValue]
+ }
+ else{
+ paramValues[,c(paramName) := get(paramName) * (1 + randomValue*trendYearValue)]
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+
+ for(year in paramValues[,Year]){
+ for (shockType in names(shocksHappen)[4:6]){
+ if(shocksHappen[Year == year, get(shockType)]){
+ for(paramName in shockDistFile[shock == shockType]$pname){
+
+ randomValue = drawValue(shockType, paramName)
+ #put in records table
+ shockValues[shock == shockType & Year == year, c(paramName) := randomValue]
+
+ #shock is changed from baseline value not change from previous year
+ if(shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$type == 'additive'){
+ paramValues[Year == year,c(paramName) := get(paramName) + randomValue]
+ }
+ else{
+ paramValues[Year == year,c(paramName) := get(paramName) * (1 + randomValue)]
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ #if negative set to zero, or need to change shock distributions so zero can't happen
+ for(col in names(paramValues)) set(paramValues, i=which(paramValues[[col]]<0), j=col, value=0)
+
+ ensDir=file.path(scenario[,Ensemble],scenario[,Scenario])
+
+ if (dir.exists(file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir))) {
+ print(paste(ensDir, "exists. Creating shock file"))
+ write.csv(paramValues, file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir,"shocks.csv"), row.names=FALSE, quote=FALSE)
+ write.csv(shockValues, file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir,"shocksRecord.csv"), row.names=FALSE, quote=FALSE)
+ }
+ else{
+ print(paste(ensDir, "does not exist. Stopping"))
+ }
+}
+
+drawValue <- function(shockType, paramName){
+
+ randomValue = runif(1, abs(shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$min),
+ abs(shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$max))
+
+ if (shockDistFile[shock == shockType & pname == paramName]$min <0){
+ randomValue = randomValue*-1
+ }
+
+ randomValue
+}
+
+baseDataDir = "/exports/csce/eddie/geos/groups/LURG/models/PLUM/plumv2/data"
+baseOutputDir="/exports/csce/eddie/geos/groups/LURG/models/PLUM/output" # "~/Downloads"
+
+shockDistFile = fread(file.path(baseDataDir, "shockDistributions.csv"))
+shockProbs = fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"shockProbabilities.csv"))
+
+ensembleFile = commandArgs(trailingOnly = TRUE)[1]
+
+scenarioTable = fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"sims",ensembleFile))
+
+for(i in 1:nrow(scenarioTable)){
+#first if column exists
+ if("SHOCKS_POSSIBLE" %in% colnames(scenarioTable)){
+ if(scenarioTable[i,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE]){
+ print(paste("Shocks possible in ",scenarioTable[i,Ensemble],scenarioTable[i,Scenario]))
+ createShockFile(scenario = scenarioTable[i])
+ }
+ }
+}
+
+
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index 3d93f9d153ef98559bbe6a27cb430e3c9816aad0..a8ef535db5eea52216a970ad353d5358a50e2190 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
return initialStockLevels;
}
- void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<CountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand) {
+ void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<CountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand, Timestep timestep) {
CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
for (CountryAgent ca : countryAgents) {
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
double exportsBeforeTransportLosses = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
double previousStockLevel = stockLevel.get(crop);
- GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, exportsBeforeTransportLosses * ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, (ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE));
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, exportsBeforeTransportLosses * ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, (ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE), timestep);
LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s (imports amount %.0f, exports amount %.0f) to %s ",
crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, adjustedPrice.getExportsAfterTransportLosses(), adjustedPrice));
worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
GlobalPrice priceQuantity = worldPrices.get(crop);
sbData.append(String.format("%d,%s", timestep.getYear(), crop.getGamsName()));
sbData.append(String.format(",%.1f,%.1f", priceQuantity.getImportAmount(), priceQuantity.getExportsAfterTransportLosses()));
- sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f,%.3f", priceQuantity.getExportPrice(), stockLevel.get(crop)));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f,%.3f", priceQuantity.getExportPrice(timestep), stockLevel.get(crop)));
outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
outputFile.newLine();
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 8f4c6f1d31fadb0149a6471d0635047370941363..b9fb3255bfb3b447a94003aafbad38ce6b1831ec 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -4,9 +4,17 @@ import java.io.File;
import java.io.FileInputStream;
import java.io.IOException;
import java.util.Enumeration;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Properties;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.SingleCountry;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.ModelFitType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.StringTabularReader;
public class ModelConfig {
@@ -14,6 +22,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
private static ModelConfig modelConfig;
public static final String CONFIG_FILE = System.getProperty("CONFIG_FILE");
+ private static StringTabularReader shocksReader;
+
private ModelConfig() {
configFile = new Properties();
try {
@@ -95,6 +105,37 @@ public class ModelConfig {
return v==null ? defaultBoolean : Boolean.valueOf(v);
}
+
+ public static void readInShocksFile(){
+
+ shocksReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"Year","trendYearValue", "TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER", "TRANSPORT_COST", "TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", "MEAT_EFFICIENCY",
+ "FERTILISER_COST_PER_T","OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", "TRANSPORT_LOSSES", "IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER", "RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", "MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE",
+ "IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER", "FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER"});
+
+ shocksReader.read(ModelConfig.SHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE);
+
+ }
+
+
+ public static Double getParameter(Parameter parameter, int year){
+
+ Map<String, String> queryMap = new HashMap<String, String>();
+ queryMap.put("Year", Integer.toString(year));
+
+ Double parameterValue=null;
+
+ try {
+ Map<String, String> row = shocksReader.querySingle(queryMap);
+ String parameterOfInterest = row.get(parameter.getCsvName());
+ parameterValue = Double.valueOf(parameterOfInterest);
+ }
+ catch (Exception e) {
+ LogWriter.println("Problem finding shock parameter: " + parameter.getCsvName() + ", " + year);
+ }
+
+ return parameterValue;
+ }
+
public static final boolean SUPPRESS_STD_OUTPUT = getBooleanProperty("SUPPRESS_STD_OUTPUT", Boolean.FALSE);
// Directory information
@@ -127,6 +168,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String COUNTRY_GROUPING_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "country_groups.csv";
public static final String OTHER_WATER_USES_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "other_water_uses.csv";
public static final String BASE_CEREAL_DEMAND_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "base_cereal_demand.csv";
+ public static final String SHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE = OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator+ "shocks.csv";
// yield data
public static final String YIELD_DIR_BASE = getProperty("YIELD_DIR_BASE");
@@ -237,7 +279,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.002);
public static final int TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_START_STEP = getIntProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_START_STEP", 0);
-
+
public static final boolean USE_BIOENERGY_TRAJECTORY = getBooleanProperty("USE_BIOENERGY_TRAJECTORY", true); // false is the old style, i.e. BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE, BIOENERGY_CHANGE_START_YEAR and BIOENERGY_CHANGE_END_YEAR
// original way to specify changes in bioenergy
public static final double BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.10); // 6.2/2.31/20
@@ -250,11 +292,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
// public static final double BIOENERGY_HEATING_VALUE_GJ_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("BIOENERGY_HEATING_VALUE_GJ_PER_T", 17.5); // GJ per t DM
//Dietary stuff
- public static final boolean ACTIVE_DIETARY_SHIFT = getBooleanProperty("ACTIVE_DIETARY_SHIFT", false);
- public static final int DIETARY_CHANGE_START_YEAR = getIntProperty("DIETARY_CHANGE_START_YEAR", 2010);
- public static final int DIETARY_CHANGE_END_YEAR = getIntProperty("DIETARY_CHANGE_END_YEAR", 2050);
- public static final double RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.05);
- public static final double MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.05);
+ public static final double RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.0);
+ public static final double MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.00);
public static final boolean CONSTANT_DIET_LOW_INCOME = getBooleanProperty("CONSTANT_DIET_LOW_INCOME", false);
public static final boolean CONSTANT_DIET_HIGH_INCOME = getBooleanProperty("CONSTANT_DIET_HIGH_INCOME", false);
//below should all sum to zero
@@ -262,20 +301,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION = getDoubleProperty("PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION", 0.35);
public static final double OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION = getDoubleProperty("OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION", 0.05);
public static final double STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION = getDoubleProperty("STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION", 0.3);
-
- //RUGS limit yield in argentina
- public static final boolean LIMIT_MAIZE_YIELD_SAMERICA = getBooleanProperty("LIMIT_MAIZE_YIELD_SAMERICA", false);
- public static final double LIMIT_YIELD_BY = getDoubleProperty("LIMIT_YIELD_BY", 0.0);
- //RUGS trade changes scenarios
-
- public static final int TRADE_START_YEAR = getIntProperty("TRADE_START_YEAR", 2010);
- public static final int TRADE_END_YEAR = getIntProperty("TRADE_END_YEAR", 2010);
- public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_ANNUAL_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_ANNUAL_CHANGE", 0.0);
- public static final double TRADE_LOSSES_ANNUAL_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_LOSSES_ANNUAL_CHANGE", 0.0);
- public static final double TRADE_COSTS_ANNUAL_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_COSTS_ANNUAL_CHANGE", 0.0);
-
-
public static final double MARKET_LAMBA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBA", 0.4); // controls international market price adjustment rate
public static final double POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT = getDoubleProperty("POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT", 30.0); // in millions, smaller countries are aggregated on a regional basis
@@ -293,6 +319,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM", 3.22);
public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.0003);
+ public static final double IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER", 1.0);
public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 1.4); // $500/t, 18% N/t
public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = FERTILISER_COST_PER_T * MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;
@@ -300,9 +327,11 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.05); // in international trade
public static final double TRANSPORT_COST = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_COST", 0.1); // 100 $/t see Wheat Transportation Profile - USDA
public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT", 0.2); // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
- public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ", 1.0);
+ public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER", 1.0);
public static final boolean ACTIVE_TRADE_BARRIERS = getBooleanProperty("ACTIVE_TRADE_BARRIERS", false); // if set to true read in barrier information from file, otherwise use default as above
-
+ public static final boolean SHOCKS_POSSIBLE = getBooleanProperty("SHOCKS_POSSIBLE", false);
+
+
public static final boolean PROTECTED_AREAS_ENABLED = getBooleanProperty("PROTECTED_AREAS_ENABLED", true);
public static final double MIN_NATURAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MIN_NATURAL_RATE", 0.05);
public static final double MAX_CHINA_LAND_EXPANSION_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_CHINA_LAND_EXPANSION_RATE", 0.011*0.4); // 1.1% max forest change 40% of natural land is forest
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 6f79d1a3a7bd6833920bc8dad8ec0ca813e1040c..43368a70b0663022947bc0b580fdc91ace7233af 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -91,7 +91,9 @@ public class ModelMain {
demandManager = new DemandManagerFromFile(compositeCountryManager);
else
demandManager = new DemandManagerSSP(ModelConfig.SSP_SCENARIO, baseConsumpManager, compositeCountryManager);
-
+
+ if (ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ModelConfig.readInShocksFile();
+
tradeManager = new TradeManager(compositeCountryManager);
currentIrrigationData = getFixedIrrigationData();
countryBoundaryRaster = getCountryBoundaryRaster();
@@ -167,7 +169,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
clusterIdRaster.putAll(ca.getYieldClusters());
}
- internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents, gen2EcDDemand);
+ internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents, gen2EcDDemand, timestep);
// output results
outputTimestepResults(timestep, globalLandUseRaster);
@@ -590,6 +592,7 @@ private void writeDomesticProductionFile(Timestep timestep) {
/** Ugly in situ update of currentIrrigationData, better if IrrigationRasterSets were handled more immutably */
private void getUpdateIrrigationData(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster yieldSurfaces) {
String rootDir = timestep.getYearSubDir(ModelConfig.YIELD_DIR);
+
new IrrigationMaxAmountReader(currentIrrigationData).getRasterDataFromFile(rootDir + File.separator + ModelConfig.IRRIG_MAX_WATER_FILENAME);
if (!ModelConfig.USE_BLUE_WATER_FILE_IRRIG_CONSTRAINT) {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index 189fe04550126b7cadf58b7a357da0d00edafa18..030f7e25366d4af33600f97fb28c43d6c6165192 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -115,18 +115,6 @@ public class CountryAgent {
}
currentCountryPrices = calculateCountryPrices(worldPrices);
-
- if(ModelConfig.LIMIT_MAIZE_YIELD_SAMERICA & country.getRegion().equals("Latin America & Caribbean")){
- for (Entry<RasterKey, YieldResponsesItem> entry : countryYieldSurfaces.entrySet()) {
- YieldResponsesItem yresp = entry.getValue();
- if (yresp != null){
- for (YieldType yt : YieldType.values()) {
- double prevYield = yresp.getYield(yt, CropType.MAIZE);
- yresp.setYield(yt,CropType.MAIZE, prevYield*(1-ModelConfig.LIMIT_YIELD_BY));
- }
- }
- }
- }
if (currentProjectedDemand.size() == 0) {
LogWriter.printlnError("No demand for country " + country + " so skipping it");
@@ -301,7 +289,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
for (CropType c : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
GlobalPrice worldPrice = worldPrices.get(c);
- CountryPrice prices = new CountryPrice(worldPrice.getCountryImportPrice(tradeBarriers.get(c), currentTimestep.getYear()), worldPrice.getExportPrice());
+ CountryPrice prices = new CountryPrice(worldPrice.getCountryImportPrice(tradeBarriers.get(c), currentTimestep), worldPrice.getExportPrice(currentTimestep));
countryPrices.put(c, prices);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index f59744bbc0b33f42986cd79c101b45f05c7034d4..725042a9c49637ac95fee209c63f4cfb12bc1763 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.country;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class GlobalPrice {
@@ -20,24 +22,23 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN);
}
- public double getExportPrice() {
- return exportPrice;
+ public double getExportPrice(Timestep timestep) {
+
+ double financialSpeculationMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE)? 1.0 : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER,timestep.getYear());
+
+ return exportPrice * financialSpeculationMultiplier;
}
- public double getCountryImportPrice(double countryTradeBarrier, int year) {
-
- double tradeBarAdj =0;
- double tradeLossAdj = 0;
- double tradeCostAdj = 0;
- int yearsOfChange = Math.min(ModelConfig.TRADE_END_YEAR - ModelConfig.TRADE_START_YEAR, year - ModelConfig.TRADE_START_YEAR);
+ public double getCountryImportPrice(double countryTradeBarrier, Timestep timestep) {
+
+ int currentYear = timestep.getYear();
- if (yearsOfChange>0) {
- tradeBarAdj = yearsOfChange * ModelConfig.TRADE_BARRIER_ANNUAL_CHANGE;
- tradeLossAdj = yearsOfChange * ModelConfig.TRADE_LOSSES_ANNUAL_CHANGE;
- tradeCostAdj = yearsOfChange * ModelConfig.TRADE_COSTS_ANNUAL_CHANGE;
- }
+ double tradeBarrierMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE)? ModelConfig.TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER: ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER, currentYear);
+ double transportLosses =(!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, currentYear);
+ double transportCosts = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_COST : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_COST, currentYear);
- double importPrice = (exportPrice * (1.0 + countryTradeBarrier*ModelConfig.TRADE_BARRIER_ADJ+tradeBarAdj) / (1.0 - ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES+tradeLossAdj)) + ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_COST+tradeCostAdj;
+ double importPrice = (getExportPrice(timestep) * (1.0 + countryTradeBarrier*tradeBarrierMultiplier)
+ / (1.0 - transportLosses)) + transportCosts;
return importPrice;
}
@@ -57,7 +58,7 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
return transportLosses;
}
- public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double imports, double exportsBeforeTransportLosses, double transportLosses, boolean adjustPrice) {
+ public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double imports, double exportsBeforeTransportLosses, double transportLosses, boolean adjustPrice, Timestep timestep) {
double exportsAfterTransportLosses = exportsBeforeTransportLosses - transportLosses;
if (imports > 0 || exportsAfterTransportLosses > 0) {
double ratio;
@@ -70,10 +71,10 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
double adjustment = adjustPrice ? Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA) : 1.0;
//adjustment = Math.min(adjustment, 2.0); // can only double in a time step
//adjustment = Math.max(adjustment, 0.5); // can only half in a time step
- return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice * adjustment, imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, transportLosses);
+ return new GlobalPrice(getExportPrice(timestep) * adjustment, imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, transportLosses);
}
else {
- LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for not updated (still %s), as no imports and no exports for it", exportPrice));
+ LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for not updated (still %s), as no imports and no exports for it", getExportPrice(timestep)));
return this;
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
index 6272692d072e6f8c02db11d4dd180e6415c9de4f..9e244d8ccd872485850b52e73ce6803633cc76c6 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
@@ -55,6 +55,8 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
}
public double getMeatEfficiency() {
+
+
return ModelConfig.MEAT_EFFICIENCY; // this is already handled by the feed conversion efficiency for each animal product
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index c29ab3645f11ae73f9aee50c7627b202dd9175bc..74fc28b30a278bad406c18562635162dc68f2e14 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LandUseItem;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.LandCoverType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LazyHashMap;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
import ac.ed.lurg.yield.YieldResponsesItem;
@@ -163,10 +164,12 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
GAMSParameter irrigConstraintP = inDB.addParameter("irrigConstraint", 1);
Map<Integer, ? extends IrrigationItem> irrigationData = inputData.getIrrigationCosts();
+ double irrigCostMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? 1.0 : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER, inputData.getTimestep().getYear());
+
for (Entry<Integer, ? extends IrrigationItem> entry : irrigationData.entrySet()) {
Integer locationId = entry.getKey();
IrrigationItem irrigCostItem = entry.getValue();
- double irrigCost = irrigCostItem.getIrrigCost();
+ double irrigCost = irrigCostItem.getIrrigCost()*irrigCostMultiplier;
double irrigConstraint = irrigCostItem.getIrrigConstraint();
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println(String.format(" %d \t %.5f,\t %.1f", locationId, irrigCost, irrigConstraint));
setGamsParamValue(irrigCostP.addRecord(Integer.toString(locationId)), irrigCost, 5);
@@ -273,14 +276,20 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
setGamsParamValue(seedAndWasteRateP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), seedAndWasteRate, 3);
}
+ //below in case running without shocks to use original values in model config
+
+ double meatEff = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.MEAT_EFFICIENCY: ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.MEAT_EFFICIENCY, inputData.getTimestep().getYear());
+ double fertCost = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.FERTILISER_MAX_COST : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.FERTILISER_COST_PER_T, inputData.getTimestep().getYear()) * ModelConfig.MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;
+ double otherIntCost = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.OTHER_INTENSITY_COST : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.OTHER_INTENSITY_COST, inputData.getTimestep().getYear());
+
LogWriter.print("\n");
addScalar(inDB, "cropIncCost", ModelConfig.CROP_INCREASE_COST, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "cropDecCost", ModelConfig.CROP_DECREASE_COST, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "pastureDecCost", ModelConfig.PASTURE_DECREASE_COST, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "pastureIncCost", ModelConfig.PASTURE_INCREASE_COST, 3);
- addScalar(inDB, "meatEfficency", countryInput.getMeatEfficiency(), 3);
- addScalar(inDB, "fertiliserUnitCost", ModelConfig.FERTILISER_MAX_COST, 3);
- addScalar(inDB, "otherICost",ModelConfig.OTHER_INTENSITY_COST, 3);
+ addScalar(inDB, "meatEfficency", meatEff, 3);
+ addScalar(inDB, "fertiliserUnitCost", fertCost, 3);
+ addScalar(inDB, "otherICost",otherIntCost, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "otherIParam", ModelConfig.OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "unhandledCropRate", ModelConfig.UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "setAsideRate", ModelConfig.SETASIDE_RATE, 5);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractDemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractDemandManager.java
index d4d7e138f990b99f272db284802bffbdb6c3070d..cbdf9dc5ec8bd67977cc2311bf7132b8efe918c6 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractDemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/AbstractDemandManager.java
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountryManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.SingleCountry;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public abstract class AbstractDemandManager {
@@ -72,11 +73,10 @@ public abstract class AbstractDemandManager {
public Map<CommodityType, Double> dietaryAdjustment(Map<CommodityType, Double> originalFoodDemandMap, int year) {
- int yearsOfChange = Math.min(ModelConfig.DIETARY_CHANGE_END_YEAR - ModelConfig.DIETARY_CHANGE_START_YEAR,
- year - ModelConfig.DIETARY_CHANGE_START_YEAR);
- double monoDemandAdj = yearsOfChange > 0 ? (yearsOfChange * CommodityType.MONOGASTRICS.demandChangeRate()) : 0.0;
- double rumDemandAdj = yearsOfChange > 0 ? (yearsOfChange * CommodityType.RUMINANTS.demandChangeRate()) : 0.0;
+ double monoDemandAdj = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? 0.0 : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE, year);
+ double rumDemandAdj = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? 0.0 : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE, year);
+
Double monogastricDemand = originalFoodDemandMap.get(CommodityType.MONOGASTRICS);
double monogastricEnergyShortfall = (monogastricDemand != null)
? monogastricDemand * monoDemandAdj * CommodityType.MONOGASTRICS.getEJPerMT() : 0.0;
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractDemandManager {
if (originalCommodityDemand != null) {
if (commodity.isAnimalProduct()) {
- double adj = yearsOfChange > 0 ? (yearsOfChange * commodity.demandChangeRate()) : 0.0;
+ double adj = commodity.getGamsName() == "ruminants" ? rumDemandAdj : monoDemandAdj;
updatedFoodDemandMap.put(commodity,
originalCommodityDemand*(1-adj));
} else {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerFromFile.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerFromFile.java
index 261e7ec1b05f63ba0dfacbb10a66ed52349c0399..5c336dcaef87b7e559ee7960ce7e0f5326234ff7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerFromFile.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerFromFile.java
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ public class DemandManagerFromFile extends AbstractDemandManager {
}
}
- if(!ModelConfig.ACTIVE_DIETARY_SHIFT){
+ if(!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE){
return foodDemandMap;
}
return dietaryAdjustment(foodDemandMap, year);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerSSP.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerSSP.java
index 61641d12d0daf0deef4857946c876137f5c75ad6..2d934230d39c4f30de01a90e4b3e00e0a2413af7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerSSP.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManagerSSP.java
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ public class DemandManagerSSP extends AbstractDemandManager {
foodDemandMap.put(commodity, d);
}
- if(!ModelConfig.ACTIVE_DIETARY_SHIFT){
+ if(!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE){
return foodDemandMap;
}
return dietaryAdjustment(foodDemandMap, year);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/IrrigationItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/IrrigationItem.java
index 2a5a544b9e19c8f4128453278d909128185adf11..49dd5934bf21cb73dba99a4f03d4e414d2e23190 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/IrrigationItem.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/IrrigationItem.java
@@ -33,6 +33,10 @@ public class IrrigationItem implements RasterItem {
return ModelConfig.PASTURE_MAX_IRRIGATION_RATE;
Double d = maxIrrigAmounts.get(crop);
+
+ //double irrigEffMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER : ModelConfig.getParameter(IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER, timestep.getYear());
+
+
return d==null ? 0.0 : d.doubleValue();
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
index 7d029f59f6257f1b5eea06af0088465f7e1338b8..3f2a843b183c285211fea86be6999a045b2ec535 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
@@ -9,12 +9,12 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
public enum CommodityType {
- CEREALS("Cereals", "cereals", false, null, 0.0115335812,ModelConfig.CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION,Double.NaN),
- OILCROPS("Oilcrops", "oilcrops", false, CropType.OILCROPS, 0.0243500061,ModelConfig.OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION,Double.NaN),
- PULSES("Pulses", "pulses", false, CropType.PULSES, 0.0146872440,ModelConfig.PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION,Double.NaN),
- STARCHY_ROOTS("Starchy Roots", "starchyRoots", false, CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, 0.0034561229,ModelConfig.STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION,Double.NaN),
- MONOGASTRICS("Monogastrics", "monogastrics", true, CropType.MONOGASTRICS, 0.0019100435, Double.NaN, ModelConfig.MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE),
- RUMINANTS("Ruminants", "ruminants", true, CropType.RUMINANTS, 0.0009951162, Double.NaN, ModelConfig.RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE);
+ CEREALS("Cereals", "cereals", false, null, 0.0115335812,ModelConfig.CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION),
+ OILCROPS("Oilcrops", "oilcrops", false, CropType.OILCROPS, 0.0243500061,ModelConfig.OILCROPS_SUB_PROPORTION),
+ PULSES("Pulses", "pulses", false, CropType.PULSES, 0.0146872440,ModelConfig.PULSES_SUB_PROPORTION),
+ STARCHY_ROOTS("Starchy Roots", "starchyRoots", false, CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, 0.0034561229,ModelConfig.STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION),
+ MONOGASTRICS("Monogastrics", "monogastrics", true, CropType.MONOGASTRICS, 0.0019100435, Double.NaN),
+ RUMINANTS("Ruminants", "ruminants", true, CropType.RUMINANTS, 0.0009951162, Double.NaN);
private String faoName;
private String gamsName;
@@ -22,16 +22,14 @@ public enum CommodityType {
private CropType cropTypeMapping;
private double ejPerMt;
private double meatSubstitutionProportion;
- private double demandChangeRate;
- CommodityType (String faoName, String gamsName, boolean isAnimalProduct, CropType cropTypeMapping, double energyPerTon, double meatSubstitutionProportion,double demandChangeRate) {
+ CommodityType (String faoName, String gamsName, boolean isAnimalProduct, CropType cropTypeMapping, double energyPerTon, double meatSubstitutionProportion) {
this.faoName = faoName;
this.gamsName = gamsName;
this.isAnimalProduct = isAnimalProduct;
this.cropTypeMapping = cropTypeMapping;
this.ejPerMt = energyPerTon; //energy EJ per Mt
this.meatSubstitutionProportion = meatSubstitutionProportion;
- this.demandChangeRate =demandChangeRate;
}
private static final Map<String, CommodityType> faoNameCache = new HashMap<String, CommodityType>();
@@ -74,10 +72,6 @@ public enum CommodityType {
return meatSubstitutionProportion;
}
- public double demandChangeRate(){
- return demandChangeRate;
- }
-
public Collection<CropType> getCropTypes(){
Collection<CropType> comms = new HashSet<CropType>();
if (this == CEREALS) {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/Parameter.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/Parameter.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9dd25305f2ef1a8ea5b7d0351a2d28ce6c7cf28a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/Parameter.java
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.types;
+
+public enum Parameter {
+
+ TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER("TRADE_BARRIERS_MULTIPLIER"),
+ TRANSPORT_LOSSES("TRANSPORT_LOSSES"),
+ TRANSPORT_COST("TRANSPORT_COST"),
+ TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE"),
+ IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER("IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER"),
+ FERTILISER_COST_PER_T("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T"),
+ OTHER_INTENSITY_COST("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST"),
+ RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE("RUMINANT_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE"),
+ MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE("MONOGASTRIC_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE"),
+ MEAT_EFFICIENCY("MEAT_EFFICIENCY"),
+ IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER("IRRIG_EFF_MULTIPLIER"), //not implemented yet as need to double check something with PA
+ FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER("FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER");
+
+ private String csvName;
+
+
+ Parameter (String csvName) {
+ this.csvName = csvName;
+ }
+
+ public String getCsvName() {
+ return csvName;
+ }
+
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/LPJYieldResponseMapReader.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/LPJYieldResponseMapReader.java
index 9c18a78d7bce6d9f333f247123853f031d018c67..86d01a80f4dcb2f9bbe3f68b2011707ef2df14fe 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/LPJYieldResponseMapReader.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/LPJYieldResponseMapReader.java
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.FertiliserRate;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.IrrigationRate;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.YieldType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.WatchForFile;
@@ -41,7 +42,9 @@ public class LPJYieldResponseMapReader {
int timeStepForTechChange = ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? ModelConfig.START_TIMESTEP : timestep.getTimestep(); // we don't want technology to change in calibration, but sometime we run tech change backwards
int yearsOfTech = (timeStepForTechChange - ModelConfig.TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_START_STEP) * ModelConfig.TIMESTEP_SIZE;
- techYieldAdj = 1.0 + yearsOfTech * ModelConfig.TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE;
+ double techChangeAnnualRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE)? ModelConfig.TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE: ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE, timestep.getYear());
+
+ techYieldAdj = 1.0 + yearsOfTech * techChangeAnnualRate;
LogWriter.println("Yield adjustment for technology for " + timestep + " is " + techYieldAdj);
YieldRaster yieldRaster = new YieldRaster(rasterProj);