From 79911adc00e05f151b48e70e118b2e50a1414a48 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2020 21:22:00 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] Price shocks
---
debug_config.properties | 4 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java | 18 ++++++-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 2 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 3 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java | 4 ++
src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/PriceShockManager.java | 46 ++++++++++++++++
.../ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java | 53 -------------------
src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/YieldShockManager.java | 2 +-
8 files changed, 72 insertions(+), 60 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/PriceShockManager.java
delete mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java
diff --git a/debug_config.properties b/debug_config.properties
index 34fd146f..717dffaf 100644
--- a/debug_config.properties
+++ b/debug_config.properties
@@ -6,11 +6,11 @@ YIELD_FILENAME=yield.out
DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=false
DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=Mongolia
-IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = false
+IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = true
GENERATE_NEW_YIELD_CLUSTERS = false
NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS=8000
-END_TIMESTEP=1
+END_TIMESTEP=0
TIMESTEP_SIZE=10
INTERPOLATE_OUTPUT_YEARS = false
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index 5ebe200e..5f3d517f 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.country.AbstractCountryAgent;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.StockReader;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
+import ac.ed.lurg.shock.PriceShockManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropToDoubleMap;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
@@ -22,7 +23,8 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class InternationalMarket {
private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices;
-
+ private PriceShockManager priceShockManager;
+
public InternationalMarket() {
if(ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN) {
worldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
@@ -38,7 +40,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
else {
worldPrices = deserializeGlobalPrice();
}
-
+ priceShockManager = new PriceShockManager();
}
public Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> getWorldPrices() {
@@ -141,6 +143,18 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
}
}
+ public void applyPriceShocks(Timestep timestep) {
+ Map<CropType, Double> shocks = priceShockManager.getShocks(timestep);
+ for (Map.Entry<CropType, Double> entry : shocks.entrySet()) {
+ CropType crop = entry.getKey();
+ GlobalPrice preShock = worldPrices.get(crop);
+ double factor = 1.0 + entry.getValue();
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = preShock.createPriceAdjustedByFactor(factor);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("applyPriceShocks: %s adjusting price by %.4f to export price %.2f", crop.getFaoName(), factor, adjustedPrice.getExportPrice()));
+ worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
+ }
+ }
+
/* public double findMaxPriceDiff(Map<CropType, Double> previousExportPrices) {
if (previousExportPrices == null)
return Double.MAX_VALUE;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 748f3673..77e3ec18 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -177,7 +177,6 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String SUBSIDY_RATE_FILE = getProperty("SUBSIDY_RATE_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + SUBSIDY_RATE_FILENAME);
public static final String ANIMAL_RATES_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "animal_numbers.csv";;
public static final String INITIAL_CONSUMER_PRICE_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "consumerprices.csv";;
- public static final String PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE = getProperty("PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator+ "productionShocks.csv");
public static final String GDP_FRACTIONS_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "agriculturalGdpFraction.csv";
// yield data
@@ -241,6 +240,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String HIGH_SLOPE_AREAS_FILE = SPATIAL_DATA_DIR + File.separator + "maxcropfrac2.txt";
public static final String YIELDSHOCK_MAP_DIR = SPATIAL_DATA_DIR + File.separator + "yieldshockmaps";
public static final String YIELDSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE = getProperty("YIELDSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator+ "yieldshocks.csv");
+ public static final String PRICESHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE = getProperty("PRICESHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator+ "priceshocks.csv");
// Output
public static final String LAND_COVER_OUTPUT_FILE = OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator + "lc.txt";
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 5e598999..903986b8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -146,7 +146,8 @@ public class ModelMain {
countryAgents.updateNetImportsForAll(); // calculate imports and exports
internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents.getAll(), gen2EcDDemand, timestep); // calculate prices
}
-
+ internationalMarket.applyPriceShocks(timestep);
+
// output results
outputTimestepResults(timestep, globalLandUseRaster);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index 0e9dc478..bf0ac898 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -123,4 +123,8 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
public double getStockChange() {
return exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount;
}
+
+ public GlobalPrice createPriceAdjustedByFactor(double factor) {
+ return new GlobalPrice(timestepId, exportPrice * factor, stockLevel, importAmount, exportAmountBeforeLoss, transportLosses);
+ }
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/PriceShockManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/PriceShockManager.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f00e99f5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/PriceShockManager.java
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.shock;
+
+import java.io.File;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.StringTabularReader;
+
+public class PriceShockManager {
+ private StringTabularReader priceShockReader;
+
+ public PriceShockManager() {
+
+ String shockFile = ModelConfig.PRICESHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE;
+ priceShockReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"year", "crop", "shockFactor"});
+
+ if (new File(shockFile).isFile())
+ priceShockReader.read(shockFile);
+ else
+ LogWriter.println("Can't find a price shock file (" +shockFile + "), so will not shock prices");
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getShocks(Timestep timestep) {
+ Map<CropType, Double> shocks = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+
+ Map<String, String> queryMap = new HashMap<String, String>();
+ queryMap.put("year", Integer.toString(timestep.getYear()));
+
+ List<Map<String, String>> rows = priceShockReader.query(queryMap);
+ for (Map<String, String> row : rows) {
+ String cropTypeS = row.get("crop");
+ String shockFactorS = row.get("shockFactor");
+ CropType crop = CropType.getForFaoName(cropTypeS);
+
+ Double shockFactor = Double.valueOf(shockFactorS);
+ LogWriter.println("Got price shock at " + timestep + ": " + cropTypeS + " " + shockFactorS);
+ shocks.put(crop, shockFactor);
+ }
+ return shocks;
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java
deleted file mode 100644
index 717f3eed..00000000
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,53 +0,0 @@
-package ac.ed.lurg.shock;
-
-import java.io.File;
-import java.util.HashMap;
-import java.util.List;
-import java.util.Map;
-
-import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
-import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountry;
-import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
-import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
-import ac.ed.lurg.utils.StringTabularReader;
-
-
-public class ProductionShockManager {
-
- private StringTabularReader productionShockReader;
-
- public ProductionShockManager() {
-
- String shockFile = ModelConfig.PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE;
- productionShockReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"year", "country", "crop", "shockFactor", "region"});
-
- if (new File(shockFile).isFile())
- productionShockReader.read(shockFile);
- else
- LogWriter.println("Can't find a production shock file (" +shockFile + "), so will not shock production");
- }
-
- public Map<CropType, Double> getShocksForCountry(Timestep timestep, CompositeCountry cc) {
- Map<CropType, Double> shocks = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
-
- Map<String, String> queryMap = new HashMap<String, String>();
- queryMap.put("year", Integer.toString(timestep.getYear()));
- queryMap.put("country", cc.getName());
-
- List<Map<String, String>> rows = productionShockReader.query(queryMap);
- for (Map<String, String> row : rows) {
- String cropTypeS = row.get("crop");
- String shockFactorS = row.get("shockFactor");
- CropType crop = CropType.getForFaoName(cropTypeS);
- Double shockFactor = Double.valueOf(shockFactorS);
-
- LogWriter.println("Got production shock at " + timestep + ": " + cc.getName() + " " + cropTypeS + " " + shockFactorS);
-
- shocks.put(crop, shockFactor);
- }
- return shocks;
-
- }
-
-}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/YieldShockManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/YieldShockManager.java
index 93a780f9..862b6715 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/YieldShockManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/YieldShockManager.java
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ public class YieldShockManager {
public YieldShockManager (RasterHeaderDetails desiredProjection) {
this.desiredProjection = desiredProjection;
String shockFile = ModelConfig.YIELDSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE;
- yieldShockReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"year", "mapFilename", "crop", "shockFactor", "region"});
+ yieldShockReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"year", "mapFilename", "crop", "shockFactor"});
if (new File(shockFile).isFile())
yieldShockReader.read(shockFile);
--
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