From 81f55825df260fd7931f3c1ccd5a11bdde0228bb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2018 11:49:16 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] More changes to match feed amounts
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 21 ++++++++++++-------
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 6 +++---
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java | 8 ++++++-
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java | 11 ++++++++--
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 1 +
5 files changed, 33 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-)
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 1001ce4d..4afcee4d 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -42,13 +42,14 @@
SCALAR pastureDecCost price for decreasing pasture;
SCALAR meatEfficency efficiency of converting feed and pasture into animal products;
+ SCALAR animalFeedFromOtherSources animal feed from source other than modelled crops;
SCALAR fertiliserUnitCost fert cost at max fert rate;
SCALAR otherIParam yield response to other intensity;
SCALAR otherICost cost of other intensity;
SCALAR unhandledCropRate rate of fruit veg and other crops not modelled;
SCALAR setAsideRate rate of set aside and failed crop;
SCALAR domesticPriceMarkup factor price increased from cost of production;
- SCALAR maxLandExpansionRate max rate of country land expansion
+ SCALAR maxLandExpansionRate max rate of country land expansion;
*$gdxin "/Users/peteralexander/Documents/R_Workspace/UNPLUM/temp/GamsTmp/t1.gdx"
$gdxin %gdxincname%
@@ -56,11 +57,15 @@ $load location, suitableLandArea, demand, agriExpansionCost, cropIncCost, pastur
$load previousArea, previousFertIntensity, previousIrrigIntensity, previousOtherIntensity, previousRuminantFeed, previousMonogastricFeed, previousImportAmount, previousExportAmount
$load yieldNone, yieldFertOnly, yieldIrrigOnly, yieldBoth
$load fertParam, irrigParam, otherIParam, exportPrices, importPrices, maxNetImport, minNetImport, unhandledCropRate, setAsideRate, maxLandExpansionRate
-$load meatEfficency, otherICost, irrigCost, irrigMaxRate, irrigConstraint, fertiliserUnitCost, domesticPriceMarkup, minDemandPerCereal, seedAndWasteRate
+$load meatEfficency, otherICost, irrigCost, irrigMaxRate, irrigConstraint, fertiliserUnitCost, domesticPriceMarkup, minDemandPerCereal, seedAndWasteRate, animalFeedFromOtherSources
$gdxin
SCALAR delta use to smooth power function see 7.5 www.gams.com dd docs solversconopt.pdf / 0.00000000001 /;
-
+
+ SCALAR ruminantOtherFeed;
+ SCALAR monogastricOtherFeed;
+ ruminantOtherFeed = animalFeedFromOtherSources * 0.25;
+ monogastricOtherFeed = animalFeedFromOtherSources * 0.75;
previousArea(crop_less_pasture, location) = previousArea(crop_less_pasture, location) * (1.0 - unhandledCropRate);
@@ -76,10 +81,10 @@ $gdxin
PARAMETER prodCost(crop) cost per ha before intensity values not including fertiliser or irrigation i.e. seed spray and other. In 1000 $ per ha
/ wheat 0.32
maize 0.31
- rice 0.4
+ rice 0.36
oilcrops 0.2
pulses 0.31
- starchyRoots 3.64
+ starchyRoots 3.14
energyCrops 0.34 / ;
PARAMETER baseCost(crop);
@@ -164,12 +169,12 @@ $gdxin
TOTAL_CEREAL_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. sum(cereal_crop, net_supply(cereal_crop)) =G= demand('cereals');
- RUMINANT_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop, ruminantFeed(feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop)) * (1 - seedAndWasteRate('ruminants')) =G= (demand('ruminants') - importAmount('ruminants') + exportAmount('ruminants')) * (1.0 - unhandledCropRate);
+ RUMINANT_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*(sum(feed_crop, ruminantFeed(feed_crop) * cropDM(feed_crop)) + ruminantOtherFeed) * (1 - seedAndWasteRate('ruminants')) =G= (demand('ruminants') - importAmount('ruminants') + exportAmount('ruminants'));
- MONOGASTRICS_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop_less_pasture, monogastricFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture) * cropDM(feed_crop_less_pasture)) * (1 - seedAndWasteRate('monogastrics')) =G= (demand('monogastrics') - importAmount('monogastrics') + exportAmount('monogastrics')) * (1.0 - unhandledCropRate);
+ MONOGASTRICS_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*(sum(feed_crop_less_pasture, monogastricFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture) * cropDM(feed_crop_less_pasture)) + monogastricOtherFeed) * (1 - seedAndWasteRate('monogastrics')) =G= (demand('monogastrics') - importAmount('monogastrics') + exportAmount('monogastrics'));
TOTAL_NON_PASTURE_FEED_DM_CALC .. totalFeedDM =E= sum(feed_crop_less_pasture, (ruminantFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture) + monogastricFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture)) * cropDM(feed_crop_less_pasture));
- FEED_MIX_CONSTRAINT(feed_crop_less_pasture) .. (ruminantFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture) + monogastricFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture)) * cropDM(feed_crop_less_pasture) =L= totalFeedDM * 0.8;
+ FEED_MIX_CONSTRAINT(feed_crop_less_pasture) .. (ruminantFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture) + monogastricFeed(feed_crop_less_pasture)) * cropDM(feed_crop_less_pasture) =L= totalFeedDM * 0.7;
MAX_FERT_INTENSITY_CONSTRAINT(crop, location) .. fertI(crop, location) =L= 1;
MAX_IRRIG_INTENSITY_CONSTRAINT(crop, location) .. irrigI(crop, location) =L= 1;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 6ca610da..44720cc7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -216,7 +216,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final boolean LIMIT_CEREAL_FRACTION = getBooleanProperty("LIMIT_CEREAL_FRACTION", true);
public static final double PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION", 0.5);
- public static final double ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_WASTE_AND_OTHER_SOURCES = getDoubleProperty("ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_WASTE_AND_OTHER_SOURCES", 0.15); // animal nutrition coming from sources other than from crops purpose grown as feed
+ public static final double ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_OTHER_SOURCES_RATE = getDoubleProperty("ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_OTHER_SOURCES_RATE", 0.127); // animal nutrition coming from sources other crops modelled
public static final double MEAT_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("MEAT_EFFICIENCY", 1.0); // 'meat' is includes feed conversion ratio already, this is tech. change or similar
public static final double IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY", 0.5);
public static final int ELLIOTT_BASEYEAR = 2010;
@@ -289,11 +289,11 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE = getDoubleProperty("UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE", 0.177); // includes fruit veg forage crops set aside and failed crop
public static final double SETASIDE_RATE = getDoubleProperty("SETASIDE_RATE", 0.103); // includes aside, fallow and failed cropland areas
- public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 0.6);
+ public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 0.7);
public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM", 3.22);
public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.00035);
- public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 1.6); // $500/t, 18% N/t
+ public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 1.5); // $500/t, 18% N/t
public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = FERTILISER_COST_PER_T * MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;
public static final double DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP = getDoubleProperty("DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP", 1.0);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index 5df2fc4a..ea961dcf 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -42,6 +42,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
private Map<CropType, CountryPrice> currentCountryPrices;
private Map<CropType, Double> tradeBarriers;
private RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> yieldClusters;
+ private double animalFeedFromOtherSources;
public CountryAgent(AbstractDemandManager demandManager,CompositeCountry country, RasterSet<LandUseItem> cropAreaRaster,
Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsageData, Map<CropType, Double> tradeBarriers, RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> yieldClusters) {
@@ -108,6 +109,11 @@ public class CountryAgent {
// get projected demand
currentProjectedDemand = demandManager.getDemand(country, timestep.getYear());
+ if (currentTimestep.isInitialTimestep()) {
+ double totalAnimalProductDemand = currentProjectedDemand.get(CommodityType.MONOGASTRICS) + currentProjectedDemand.get(CommodityType.RUMINANTS);
+ animalFeedFromOtherSources = totalAnimalProductDemand * ModelConfig.ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_OTHER_SOURCES_RATE;
+ }
+
currentCountryPrices = calculateCountryPrices(worldPrices);
if(ModelConfig.LIMIT_MAIZE_YIELD_SAMERICA & country.getRegion().equals("Latin America & Caribbean")){
@@ -263,7 +269,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
Map<CropType, Double> minCerealFract = getMinCerealFraction(currentTimestep);
GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = new GamsCountryInput(country, currentProjectedDemand, currentCountryPrices, importConstraints,
- previousGamsRasterOutput.getCropUsageData(), minCerealFract);
+ previousGamsRasterOutput.getCropUsageData(), minCerealFract, animalFeedFromOtherSources);
GamsRasterInput input = new GamsRasterInput(currentTimestep, countryYieldSurfaces, previousGamsRasterOutput.getLandUses(), irrigData, countryLevelInputs);
return input;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
index 22814d2e..6272692d 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
@@ -19,9 +19,11 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private Map<CropType, CountryPrice> countryPrices;
private Map<CropType, CropUsageData> previousCropUsageData;
private Map<CropType, Double> minCerealFraction;
+ private double animalFeedFromOtherSources;
public GamsCountryInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, CountryPrice> countryPrices,
- Map<CropType, TradeOrProductionConstraint> importConstraints, Map<CropType, CropUsageData> previousCropUsageData, Map<CropType, Double> minCerealFraction) {
+ Map<CropType, TradeOrProductionConstraint> importConstraints, Map<CropType, CropUsageData> previousCropUsageData, Map<CropType, Double> minCerealFraction,
+ double animalFeedFromOtherSources) {
super();
this.country = country;
this.projectedDemand = projectedDemand;
@@ -29,6 +31,7 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
this.countryPrices = countryPrices;
this.previousCropUsageData = previousCropUsageData;
this.minCerealFraction = minCerealFraction;
+ this.animalFeedFromOtherSources = animalFeedFromOtherSources;
}
public CompositeCountry getCountry() {
@@ -52,7 +55,7 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
}
public double getMeatEfficiency() {
- return ModelConfig.MEAT_EFFICIENCY * (1 - ModelConfig.ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_WASTE_AND_OTHER_SOURCES); // this is already handled by the feed conversion efficiency for each animal product
+ return ModelConfig.MEAT_EFFICIENCY; // this is already handled by the feed conversion efficiency for each animal product
}
public Map<CropType, Double> getMinTradeOrProd() {
@@ -74,4 +77,8 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
public Map<CropType, Double> getMinCerealFraction() {
return minCerealFraction;
}
+
+ public double getAnimalFeedFromOtherSources() {
+ return animalFeedFromOtherSources;
+ }
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index e3dac733..c29ab364 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -285,6 +285,7 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
addScalar(inDB, "unhandledCropRate", ModelConfig.UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE, 3);
addScalar(inDB, "setAsideRate", ModelConfig.SETASIDE_RATE, 5);
addScalar(inDB, "domesticPriceMarkup", ModelConfig.DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP, 3);
+ addScalar(inDB, "animalFeedFromOtherSources", countryInput.getAnimalFeedFromOtherSources(), 2);
double maxExpansion = 1.0;
if (!ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN && countryInput.getCountry().getName().equals("China")) {
maxExpansion = ModelConfig.MAX_CHINA_LAND_EXPANSION_RATE;
--
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