From 986f5b74409b126daed87851731be6c47703746c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <p.m.w.alexander@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2019 23:21:30 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Bug fixes to stock level based price adjustment
---
scripts/runPlum.sh | 2 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java | 2 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java | 44 ++++++++++++++++---------
3 files changed, 31 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-)
diff --git a/scripts/runPlum.sh b/scripts/runPlum.sh
index c2983c97..2fcb597e 100755
--- a/scripts/runPlum.sh
+++ b/scripts/runPlum.sh
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ fi
cd $scenariodir
echo "starting"
-runcmd="java -Xmx1G -XX:+PrintGC -classpath $GAMSPATH/apifiles/Java/api/GAMSJavaAPI.jar:$classesdir -DBUILDVER=$buildver -DCONFIG_FILE=$scenariodir/config.properties ac.ed.lurg.ModelMain"
+runcmd="java -Xmx2G -XX:+PrintGC -classpath $GAMSPATH/apifiles/Java/api/GAMSJavaAPI.jar:$classesdir -DBUILDVER=$buildver -DCONFIG_FILE=$scenariodir/config.properties ac.ed.lurg.ModelMain"
echo $runcmd
$runcmd
echo "finished"
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index a34e824c..262531cd 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
GlobalPrice prevPrice = worldPrices.get(crop);
double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
double exportsBeforeTransportLosses = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
- LogWriter.print("Updating " + crop.getGamsName() + " prices : ");
+ LogWriter.print(timestep.getYear() + " Updating " + crop.getGamsName() + " prices : ");
GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, timestep, totalProduction.get(crop));
LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s to %s \n", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, adjustedPrice));
worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index b4b30601..aee2d8f8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -6,13 +6,15 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class GlobalPrice {
+ private int timestepId;
private double exportPrice;
private double importAmount;
private double exportAmountBeforeLoss;
private double transportLosses;
private double stockLevel;
- private GlobalPrice(double exportPrice, double stockLevel, double importAmount, double exportAmountBeforeLoss, double transportLosses) {
+ private GlobalPrice(int timestepId, double exportPrice, double stockLevel, double importAmount, double exportAmountBeforeLoss, double transportLosses) {
+ this.timestepId = timestepId;
this.exportPrice = exportPrice;
this.stockLevel = stockLevel;
this.importAmount = importAmount;
@@ -21,7 +23,7 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
}
public static GlobalPrice createInitial(double exportPrice) {
- return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN);
+ return new GlobalPrice(ModelConfig.START_TIMESTEP-1, exportPrice, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN);
}
public double getExportPrice(){
@@ -61,18 +63,23 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
return transportLosses;
}
- public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double imports, double exportsBeforeTransportLosses, Timestep timestep, double production) {
+ public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double newImports, double newExportAmountBeforeLoss, Timestep timestep, double production) {
if (Double.isNaN(stockLevel))
stockLevel = ModelConfig.STOCK_TARGET_RATE * production; // set stock initially to target level, this is pretty horrible and should really be done on construction but don't easily have production value at that point
double transportLossRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, timestep.getYear());
- double transportLosses = exportsBeforeTransportLosses * transportLossRate;
- double exportsAfterTransportLosses = exportsBeforeTransportLosses - transportLosses;
+ double newTransportLosses = newExportAmountBeforeLoss * transportLossRate;
+ double exportsAfterTransportLosses = newExportAmountBeforeLoss - newTransportLosses;
- if (imports > 0 || exportsAfterTransportLosses > 0) {
- double updatedStock = stockLevel + exportsBeforeTransportLosses - transportLosses - imports;
- LogWriter.println(String.format(" global stocks from %.2f to %.2f", stockLevel, updatedStock));
+ if (newImports > 0 || exportsAfterTransportLosses > 0) {
+ double oldDiff = 0;
+ if (timestep.getTimestep() == timestepId) // if recomputing for same year need to back our previous adjustment
+ oldDiff = exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount;
+ double newDiff = newExportAmountBeforeLoss - newTransportLosses - newImports;
+ double updatedStock = stockLevel + newDiff - oldDiff;
+
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(" global stocks from %.2f to %.2f due to newDiff %.2f oldDiff %.2f", stockLevel, updatedStock, newDiff, oldDiff));
if (updatedStock < 0)
LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks are below zero"));
@@ -83,24 +90,30 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
adjustment = 1;
}
else if (ModelConfig.PRICE_UPDATE_BY_MARKET_IMBALANCE) {
- double ratio = (imports-exportsAfterTransportLosses)/(imports-exportsAfterTransportLosses+production);
+ double ratio = (newImports-exportsAfterTransportLosses)/(newImports-exportsAfterTransportLosses+production);
adjustment = Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update market imbalance: adjustment= %s, imports %.1f, exports %.1f", adjustment, imports, getExportsAfterTransportLosses()));
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update market imbalance: adjustment= %.4f, imports %.1f, exports %.1f", adjustment, newImports, getExportsAfterTransportLosses()));
}
else {
double stockTarget = ModelConfig.STOCK_TARGET_RATE * production;
double ratio = (stockTarget - updatedStock) / stockTarget;
- if (Math.abs(ratio) >= 1)
- adjustment = 10; // default to max change
- else
+ if (ratio >= 0) {
adjustment = 1 + ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA * ratio/(1 - ratio*ratio);
+ if (adjustment > 3 || ratio > 1)
+ adjustment = 3; // default to max up change
+ }
+ else {
+ adjustment = 1 / ( 1 - ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA * ratio/(1 - ratio*ratio));
+ if (adjustment < 0.1 || ratio < -1)
+ adjustment = 0.1; // default to max down change
+ }
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update from stock target: adjustment= %s, ratio= %s", adjustment, ratio));
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update from stock target: adjustment= %.4f, ratio= %.4f", adjustment, ratio));
}
newPrice = exportPrice * adjustment * financialSpeculationMultiplier;
- return new GlobalPrice(newPrice, updatedStock, imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, transportLosses);
+ return new GlobalPrice(timestep.getTimestep(), newPrice, updatedStock, newImports, newExportAmountBeforeLoss, newTransportLosses);
}
else {
LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for not updated (still %s), as no imports and no exports for it", exportPrice));
@@ -117,3 +130,4 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
return exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount;
}
}
+
--
GitLab