diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index a1b83bcb394f2230c1840859ad84846ab4402ba9..9bb90990daecbeca2be39f31f50625b9f54f377b 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -57,10 +57,8 @@
PARAMETER conversionCost(land_cover_before, land_cover_after, location) cost of converting from one land cover to another - $1000 per ha;
PARAMETER woodYieldMax(location);
PARAMETER woodYieldParam(location);
- PARAMETER maxRotationIntensity(wood_type);
PARAMETER forestBaseCost(managed_forest);
PARAMETER previousRotationIntensity(location);
- PARAMETER minRotationIntensity(location);
SCALAR meatEfficency efficiency of converting feed and pasture into animal products;
SCALAR fertiliserUnitCost fert cost at max fert rate;
@@ -85,8 +83,8 @@ $load previousCropArea, previousFertIntensity, previousIrrigIntensity, previousO
$load yieldNone, yieldFertOnly, yieldIrrigOnly, yieldBoth, yieldShock
$load fertParam, irrigParam, otherIParam, exportPrices, importPrices, maxNetImport, minNetImport, unhandledCropRate, setAsideRate, maxGrossLccRate, subsidyRate
$load meatEfficency, otherICost, irrigCost, irrigMaxRate, irrigConstraint, fertiliserUnitCost, domesticPriceMarkup, minDemandFraction, seedAndWasteRate
-$load previousLandCoverArea, maxCroplandArea, carbonCreditRate, conversionCost, woodYieldMax, woodYieldParam, maxRotationIntensity, forestBaseCost, tradeAdjustmentCostRate
-$load forestManagementCost, carbonForestMaxProportion, maxFertChange, maxIrrigChange, previousRotationIntensity, minRotationIntensity
+$load previousLandCoverArea, maxCroplandArea, carbonCreditRate, conversionCost, woodYieldMax, woodYieldParam, forestBaseCost, tradeAdjustmentCostRate
+$load forestManagementCost, carbonForestMaxProportion, maxFertChange, maxIrrigChange, previousRotationIntensity
$gdxin
SCALAR delta "use to smooth power function see 7.5 www.gams.com dd docs solversconopt.pdf" / 0.00000000001 /;
@@ -116,7 +114,7 @@ $gdxin
fruitveg 4.0
sugar 3.0
energyCrops 0.3
- pasture 0.38 / ;
+ pasture 0.42 / ;
PARAMETER baseCost(crop) base cost per hectare
/ wheat 0.10
@@ -304,7 +302,7 @@ $gdxin
* Upper and lower bounds on rotation intensity
rotationIntensity.UP(location) = 1 / 10;
- rotationIntensity.LO(location) = minRotationIntensity(location);
+ rotationIntensity.LO(location) = 1 / 160;
WOOD_SUPPLY_CALC(location) .. totalWoodSupply(location) =E= woodYieldRota(location) * rotationIntensity(location) * landCoverArea('timberForest', location);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index 2a1436f723978af33957bbce95f8df734a5aafda..098483d32f5b391047a630966b64deaca081aa5c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -101,12 +101,13 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
Map<CropType, Double> initialStockLevels = getInitialStockLevels();
for (Entry<CropType, GlobalPrice> entry : worldPrices.entrySet()) {
Double initialStock = initialStockLevels.get(entry.getKey());
- if (initialStock != null)
- entry.getValue().resetStock(initialStock);
+ if (initialStock != null) {
+ entry.getValue().setStockToTargetLevel();
+ }
}
for (Map.Entry<WoodType, GlobalPrice> entry : woodPrices.entrySet()) {
- entry.getValue().resetStock(ModelConfig.INIT_WOOD_STOCK);
+ entry.getValue().setStockToTargetLevel();
}
carbonPrice.resetStock(0.0);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 43dc2fe1e970aa356fbc030bd338c66e7ec1ab45..a8cb53ac5d02b6c071a74f1a8252550f94540bf7 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -427,7 +427,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
// Import export limits
public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.5); // Loose constraint as we have TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE
public static final double MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE*TIMESTEP_SIZE);
- public static final double TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE", 0.01);
+ public static final double TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_ADJUSTMENT_COST_RATE", 0.004); // Cost of changing imports/exports
// Price caps
public static final String PRICE_CAP_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "price_caps.csv";
@@ -487,8 +487,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final boolean RESET_ENERGYCROP_PRICE = getBooleanProperty("RESET_ENERGYCROP_PRICE", false); // Resets price after calibration to avoid problems due to low initial demand
// public static final double BIOENERGY_HEATING_VALUE_GJ_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("BIOENERGY_HEATING_VALUE_GJ_PER_T", 17.5); // GJ per t DM
- public static final double MARKET_LAMBDA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBDA", 0.6); // controls international market price adjustment rate
- public static final double MARKET_DELTA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_DELTA", 0.002); // price adjustment sensitivity to stock use ratio imbalance
+ public static final double MARKET_LAMBDA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBDA", 1.6); // controls international market price adjustment rate
+ public static final double MARKET_DELTA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_DELTA", 0.01); // price adjustment sensitivity to stock use ratio imbalance
public static final double DEFAULT_STOCK_USE_RATIO = getDoubleProperty("DEFAULT_STOCK_USE_RATIO", 0.3);
public static final String PRICE_UPDATE_METHOD = getProperty("PRICE_UPDATE_METHOD", "AdaptiveLambda"); // Options: AdaptiveLambda, MarketImbalance, StockChange
@@ -503,12 +503,12 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE = getDoubleProperty("UNHANDLED_CROP_RATE", 0.01323); // mostly forage crops and fibers
public static final double SETASIDE_RATE = getDoubleProperty("SETASIDE_RATE", 0.08298); // includes aside, fallow and failed cropland areas
- public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 1.0);
+ public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 0.8);
public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM", 3.22);
public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.00035);
public static final double IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_MULTIPLIER", 1.0);
- public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 0.533); // $1000 per tonne. Urea $245/t (2019), 46% nitrogen
+ public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 0.533); // $1000 per tonne. =0.245/0.46, Urea $245/t (2019), 46% nitrogen
public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = ModelConfig.getAdjParam("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T") * MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;
public static final double DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP = getDoubleProperty("DOMESTIC_PRICE_MARKUP", 1.0);
@@ -576,13 +576,13 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final boolean IS_FORESTRY_ON = getBooleanProperty("IS_FORESTRY_ON", false);
public static final String WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME = getProperty("WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME", "wood_base_demand.csv");
public static final String WOOD_DEMAND_FILE = getProperty("WOOD_DEMAND_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + WOOD_DEMAND_FILENAME);
- public static final double INIT_WOOD_STOCK = getDoubleProperty("INIT_WOOD_STOCK", 600.0); // million m3
+ public static final double INIT_WOOD_STOCK = getDoubleProperty("INIT_WOOD_STOCK", 1200.0); // million m3
public static final double WOOD_BIOMASS_CONVERSION_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("WOOD_BIOMASS_CONVERSION_FACTOR", 0.3); // m3 to tC-eq p.16 [https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020]
public static final double FOREST_MANAGEMENT_COST = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("FOREST_MANAGEMENT_COST", 2.0) : 0.0; // establishment, management etc. $1000/ha
public static final double FOREST_BASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("FOREST_BASE_COST", 0.12); // $1000/ha
public static final double WOOD_TRADE_BARRIER = getDoubleProperty("WOOD_TRADE_BARRIER", 0.1); //$1000/m3
- public static final double INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE", 0.1) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
- public static final double INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE", 0.07) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
+ public static final double INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE", 0.06) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
+ public static final double INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE = IS_FORESTRY_ON ? getDoubleProperty("INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE", 0.04) : 0.0; // $1000/m3
public static final int CARBON_WOOD_MAX_TIME = getIntProperty("CARBON_WOOD_MAX_TIME", 160); // upper data limit, years
// Carbon
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index 285ae0c4eb18e10d88075336649920630bc2b2d3..614ba70545a3ada03a99668c23184e6640858c26 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -99,11 +99,11 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
LogWriter.println(String.format(" updatedStock %.2f, previous %.2f (last timestep %.2f), stockChange %.2f, oldDiff %.2f", updatedStock, stockLevel, stockLevel-oldDiff, stockChange, oldDiff), 2);
double adjustment = 1;
- double marketLambda = ModelConfig.getAdjParam( "MARKET_LAMBDA");
+ double marketLambda = ModelConfig.getAdjParam("MARKET_LAMBDA");
if (!ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE
|| (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN && thisTimeStep.getTimestep() <= ModelConfig.END_FIRST_STAGE_CALIBRATION)
- || thisTimeStep.getTimestep() == -1) {
+ || (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN && thisTimeStep.isInitialTimestep())) {
adjustment = 1;
}
else if (ModelConfig.PRICE_UPDATE_METHOD.equals("AdaptiveLambda")) {
@@ -114,8 +114,15 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
// Prices increase as a proportion of stockLevel and decrease as a proportion of production
double denominator = stockChange < 0 ? stockLevel : production;
- adjustment = 1 - lambda * stockChange / denominator - ModelConfig.MARKET_DELTA * (updatedStock - targetStock) / targetStock;
-
+ adjustment = 1 - lambda * stockChange / denominator;
+
+ // Nudge prices when stocks too low (below target level) or too high (50% above target)
+ double marketDelta = ModelConfig.getAdjParam("MARKET_DELTA");
+ if (updatedStock < targetStock & stockChange < 0) {
+ adjustment *= 1 + marketDelta;
+ } else if (updatedStock > targetStock * 1.5 & stockChange > 0) {
+ adjustment *= 1 - marketDelta;
+ }
}
else if (ModelConfig.PRICE_UPDATE_METHOD.equals("MarketImbalance")) {
@@ -183,6 +190,10 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
this.stockLevel = stock;
}
+ public void setStockToTargetLevel() {
+ stockLevel = production * stockUseRatio;
+ }
+
public double getTradeChangeUp(double maxOfProdOrSupply) {
if (ModelConfig.DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES) {
return maxOfProdOrSupply * ModelConfig.MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index 6edc572fdf588a1cf717ca97e8b087755f839db5..74ac942d4ef83baf780d35b8a3e3ec6d4eb249e7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -201,8 +201,6 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
setGamsParamValue(maxCroplandAreaP.addRecord(locString), landUseItem.getMaxCroplandArea(), 6);
setGamsParamValue(prevRotaIntP.addRecord(locString), landUseItem.getForestRotationIntensity(), 6);
- double minRotaIntensity = ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 1.0 / 160 : 1 / ((1 / landUseItem.getForestRotationIntensity()) + 1);
- setGamsParamValue(minRotaIntP.addRecord(locString), minRotaIntensity, 6);
}
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println(String.format(" Total agricultural %.1f,\t suitable %.1f", totalAgriLand, totalSuitable));
@@ -402,8 +400,6 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
// Prices
setGamsParamValue(importPriceP.addRecord(woodType.getName()), woodPrices.get(woodType).getImportPrice(), 5);
setGamsParamValue(exportPriceP.addRecord(woodType.getName()), woodPrices.get(woodType).getExportPrice(), 5);
- // Rotation limits
- setGamsParamValue(maxRotaIntensityP.addRecord(woodType.getName()), 1.0 / woodType.getMinRotation(), 6);
}
addScalar(inDB, "forestManagementCost", ModelConfig.getAdjParam("FOREST_MANAGEMENT_COST"), -1);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/WoodType.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/WoodType.java
index 0ae02e8f8d5f7311ce384f0691c0d3da1d8607d7..8c6d9ae61927348f0b2566589e89c7fd447d1108 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/WoodType.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/WoodType.java
@@ -5,16 +5,14 @@ import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
public enum WoodType {
- IND_ROUNDWOOD("roundwood", 30, ModelConfig.INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE),
- FUELWOOD("fuelwood", 10, ModelConfig.INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE);
+ IND_ROUNDWOOD("roundwood", ModelConfig.INIT_ROUNDWOOD_PRICE),
+ FUELWOOD("fuelwood", ModelConfig.INIT_FUELWOOD_PRICE);
private String name;
- private int minRotation;
private double initialPrice;
- WoodType(String name, int minRotation, double initialPrice) {
+ WoodType(String name, double initialPrice) {
this.name = name;
- this.minRotation = minRotation;
this.initialPrice = initialPrice;
}
@@ -39,10 +37,6 @@ public enum WoodType {
return name;
}
- public int getMinRotation() {
- return minRotation;
- }
-
public double getInitialPrice() {
return initialPrice;
}