From baffd107b2db3bda2453f736d39a3e5f116101d1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 17:54:35 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Update global prices based on balance of imports and exports
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 8 +--
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 7 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 68 +++++++++++--------
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java | 8 +--
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java | 14 ++--
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 4 +-
6 files changed, 61 insertions(+), 48 deletions(-)
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 2a0baeee..6a08c228 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
PARAMETER fertParam(crop, location) yield response to fertilizer parameter;
PARAMETER irrigParam(crop, location) yield response to irrigation parameter;
PARAMETER demand(all_types) in t;
- PARAMETER worldInputEnergy(import_crop) average input energy from world exports used to determine if we should import or export;
+ PARAMETER worldInputPrices(import_crop) average input energy from world exports used to determine if we should import or export;
PARAMETER maxNetImport(import_crop) maximum net import for each crop based on world market;
PARAMETER minNetImport(import_crop) minimum net import for each crop based on world market;
PARAMETER irrigCost(location) irrigation cost;
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@
$gdxin %gdxincname%
$load location, suitableLandArea, previousArea, demand, landChangeEnergy
$load yieldNone, yieldFertOnly, yieldIrrigOnly, yieldBoth
-$load fertParam, irrigParam, worldInputEnergy, maxNetImport, minNetImport
+$load fertParam, irrigParam, worldInputPrices, maxNetImport, minNetImport
$load meatEfficency, minFeedRate, irrigCost
$load cropAdj, fitToPreviousAreas
$gdxin
@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ $gdxin
+ (sum(location, agriLandExpansion(location)) * landChangeEnergy)
+ (sum(location, (cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) * landChangeEnergy/8))
+ (sum(location, (pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) * landChangeEnergy/8 ))
- + sum(import_crop, (netImportAmount(import_crop)) * worldInputEnergy(import_crop))) / 1000000;
+ + sum(import_crop, (netImportAmount(import_crop)) * worldInputPrices(import_crop))) / 1000000;
MODEL LAND_USE /ALL/ ;
@@ -217,7 +217,7 @@ $gdxin
parameter feedEnergy(all_types);
totalProdCost(crop) = sum(location, unitEnergy.l(crop, location) * area.l(crop, location));
- totalImportEnergy(import_crop) = netImportAmount.l(import_crop) * worldInputEnergy(import_crop);
+ totalImportEnergy(import_crop) = netImportAmount.l(import_crop) * worldInputPrices(import_crop);
feedEnergy(feed_crop)$(netImportAmount.l(feed_crop) gt 0) = (totalProdCost(feed_crop) + totalImportEnergy(feed_crop)) * feedAmount.l(feed_crop) / (totalProd(feed_crop) + netImportAmount.l(feed_crop));
feedEnergy(feed_crop)$(netImportAmount.l(feed_crop) le 0 and totalProd(feed_crop) gt 0) = totalProdCost(feed_crop) * feedAmount.l(feed_crop) / totalProd(feed_crop);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index db97a623..594d9e2d 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -118,8 +118,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final int START_TIMESTEP = getIntProperty("START_TIMESTEP", 0);
- public static final int END_TIMESTEP = getIntProperty("END_TIMESTEP", 1);
- public static final int TIMESTEP_SIZE = getIntProperty("END_TIMESTEP", 40);
+ public static final int END_TIMESTEP = getIntProperty("END_TIMESTEP", 4);
+ public static final int TIMESTEP_SIZE = getIntProperty("TIMESTEP_SIZE", 10);
public static final int BASE_YEAR = getIntProperty("BASE_YEAR", 2010);
public static final double MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.1);
@@ -138,4 +138,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double LAND_CHANGE_COST = getDoubleProperty("LAND_CHANGE_COST", 2.0);
public static final double MIN_FEED_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MIN_FEED_RATE", 0.15);
public static final double SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION", 0.1);
+
+ public static final double MARKET_LAMBA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBA", 0.3); // controls market price adjustment rate
+
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index a6ff0124..546584a2 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
private Collection<CountryAgent> countryAgents;
private Map<Country, List<RasterKey>> countryToKeysMap;
private DemandManager demandManager;
- private Map<CropType, Double> prevWorldInputCost;
+ private Map<CropType, Double> prevWorldPrices;
private RasterHeaderDetails desiredProjection;
public static void main(String[] args) {
@@ -62,9 +62,9 @@ public class ModelMain {
countryAgents = createCountryAgents();
// in first timestep we don't have this info, but ok as constrained to import/export specified amount
- prevWorldInputCost = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+ prevWorldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
for (CropType c : CropType.getImportedTypes())
- prevWorldInputCost.put(c, 1.0);
+ prevWorldPrices.put(c, 1.0);
}
/* run the model */
@@ -90,11 +90,8 @@ public class ModelMain {
// YieldResponsesItem yresp = yieldSurfaces.getFromCoordinates(-50.0, -4.0);
// LogWriter.printlnError("Test key: " + yresp.getYieldMax(CropType.CEREALS) + ", " + yresp.getYieldFertOnly(CropType.CEREALS) + ", " + yresp.getYieldIrrigOnly(CropType.CEREALS));
-
- CropToDoubleMap totalQuantity = new CropToDoubleMap();
- CropToDoubleMap totalWorldInputCost = new CropToDoubleMap();
- // CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
- // CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
+ CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
+ CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
RasterSet<IntensitiesItem> globalIntensityRaster = new RasterSet<IntensitiesItem>(desiredProjection);
RasterSet<AreasItem> globalCropAreaRaster = new RasterSet<AreasItem>(desiredProjection);
@@ -107,7 +104,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces = yieldSurfaces.getSubsetRasterForKeys(countryKeys);
// do the optimization
- GamsRasterOutput result = ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, prevWorldInputCost);
+ GamsRasterOutput result = ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, prevWorldPrices);
if (result == null) {
LogWriter.printlnError("No results for " + ca.getCountry());
@@ -124,34 +121,47 @@ public class ModelMain {
for (Entry<CropType, CropUsageData> entry : cropUsage.entrySet()) {
CropType c = entry.getKey();
- CropUsageData d = entry.getValue();
+ double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getNetImports();
- totalQuantity.incrementValue(c, d.getProduction());
- totalWorldInputCost.incrementValue(c, d.getProdCost());
+ if (countryNetImports > 0)
+ totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(c, countryNetImports);
+ else
+ totalExportCommodities.incrementValue(c, -countryNetImports);
}
-
}
-
- prevWorldInputCost = totalWorldInputCost.divideBy(totalQuantity);
-
- // after first timestep should look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
- /* for (CropType crop : CropType.values()) {
- CommodityData cd = result.getCommoditiesData().get(crop);
- double netImport = cd.getNetImports();
-
- if (netImport > 0)
- totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(crop, netImport);
- else
- totalExportCommodities.incrementValue(crop, -netImport);
- } */
-
+ // Look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
+ for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
+ double imports = totalImportCommodities.get(crop);
+ double exports = totalExportCommodities.get(crop);
+ double prevPrice = prevWorldPrices.get(crop);
+ double adjustedPrice = updateMarketPrices(prevPrice, imports, exports);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Price for %s updated from %.3f (imports %.0f, exports %.0f) to %.3f ", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
+ }
// output results
outputTimestepResults(timestep, globalIntensityRaster, globalCropAreaRaster, globalLocationIdRaster, yieldSurfaces);
writeMarketFile(timestep, globalCropAreaRaster);
}
+
+ public double updateMarketPrices(double previousPrice, double demand, double supply) {
+
+ if (demand > 0 || supply > 0) {
+ double ratio;
+
+ if (demand > supply)
+ ratio = (demand-supply)/demand;
+ else
+ ratio = (demand-supply)/supply;
+ double adjustment = Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
+ return previousPrice * adjustment;
+ }
+ else {
+ return previousPrice;
+ }
+ }
private BufferedWriter getFileWriter(Timestep timestep, String file, String columnHeadings) throws IOException {
if (timestep.isInitialTimestep()) {
@@ -188,7 +198,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
timestep.getYear(), getTotalArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND, cropAreaRaster), getTotalArea(LandCoverType.PASTURE, cropAreaRaster), getTotalArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL, cropAreaRaster)));
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes() )
- sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f", prevWorldInputCost.get(crop)));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f", prevWorldPrices.get(crop)));
outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
outputFile.newLine();
@@ -314,7 +324,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
// continue;
// }
- if (demandManager.getPopulation(country, 2010) < 8 || countryExclusionList.contains(country.getCountryName())) {
+ if (demandManager.getPopulation(country, 2010) < 80 || countryExclusionList.contains(country.getCountryName())) {
LogWriter.printlnError("Skipping " + country);
continue;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index ce2bfa74..0dc9ddf4 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return country;
}
- public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputEnergy) {
+ public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices) {
currentTimestep = timestep;
this.countryYieldSurfaces = countryYieldSurfaces;
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
}
else {
// optimize areas and intensity
- GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(projectedDemand, worldInputEnergy);
+ GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(projectedDemand, worldInputPrices);
GamsRasterOptimiser opti = new GamsRasterOptimiser(input);
LogWriter.println("Running " + country.getCountryName() + ", currentTimestep " + currentTimestep);
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return null;
}
- private GamsRasterInput getGamsRasterInput(Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputEnergy) {
+ private GamsRasterInput getGamsRasterInput(Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices) {
GamsRasterOutput prevOutput;
Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjs;
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
maxOfProdOrSupply.put(entry.getKey(), cropUsage.getProduction() + Math.max(netImports, 0));
}
- GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputEnergy, baseNetImport, maxOfProdOrSupply, cropAdjs, calibrate);
+ GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = GamsCountryInput.createInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputPrices, baseNetImport, maxOfProdOrSupply, cropAdjs, calibrate);
GamsRasterInput input = new GamsRasterInput(currentTimestep, countryYieldSurfaces, prevOutput.getCropAreaRaster(), irrigationCostRaster, countryLevelInputs);
return input;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
index 736cf89a..bccfbe43 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private Country country; // not really required but useful for debugging
private Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand;
- private Map<CropType, Double> worldInputEnergy;
+ private Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices;
private Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport;
private Map<CropType, Double> minNetImport;
private Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments;
@@ -27,19 +27,19 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private double landChangeEnergy;*/
- private GamsCountryInput(Country country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputEnergy,
+ private GamsCountryInput(Country country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices,
Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> minNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments, boolean calibrateToObserved) {
super();
this.country = country;
this.projectedDemand = projectedDemand;
- this.worldInputEnergy = worldInputEnergy;
+ this.worldInputPrices = worldInputPrices;
this.maxNetImport = maxNetImport;
this.minNetImport = minNetImport;
this.cropAdjustments = cropAdjustments;
this.calibrateToObserved = calibrateToObserved;
}
- public static GamsCountryInput createInput(Country country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputEnergy,
+ public static GamsCountryInput createInput(Country country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, Double> worldInputPrices,
Map<CropType, Double> baseNetImport, Map<CropType, Double> maxOfProdOrSupply, Map<CropType, Double> cropAdjustments, boolean calibrateToObserved) {
Map<CropType, Double> maxNetImport;
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
}
}
- return new GamsCountryInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputEnergy, maxNetImport, minNetImport, cropAdjustments, calibrateToObserved);
+ return new GamsCountryInput(country, projectedDemand, worldInputPrices, maxNetImport, minNetImport, cropAdjustments, calibrateToObserved);
}
@@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
return projectedDemand;
}
- public Map<CropType, Double> getWorldInputEnergy() {
- return worldInputEnergy;
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getWorldInputPrices() {
+ return worldInputPrices;
}
public Map<CropType, Double> getMaxNetImport() {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index d479b41c..ce2060a8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -160,8 +160,8 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
}
}
- if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("\nWorld input energy");
- addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldInputEnergy", 1), countryInput.getWorldInputEnergy());
+ if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("\nWorld input prices");
+ addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("worldInputPrices", 1), countryInput.getWorldInputPrices());
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("\nMax Net Import");
addItemMapParm(inDB.addParameter("maxNetImport", 1), countryInput.getMaxNetImport());
--
GitLab