diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 8f4c6f1d31fadb0149a6471d0635047370941363..2a0aeba990e25a447f90fc84e29f62c8a12a1f46 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -318,5 +318,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final int NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS = getIntProperty("NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS", 8000);
public static final long RANDOM_SEED = getIntProperty("RANDOM_SEED", 1974329); // any number will do
-
+ // Protected areas forcing parameters
+ public static final boolean FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? false : getBooleanProperty("FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS", false);
+ public static final int FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_START_YEAR = getIntProperty("FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_START_YEAR", 2020);
+ public static final int FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_END_YEAR = getIntProperty("FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_END_YEAR", 2050);
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index 3df7848829c0673de98cb47706e282cf89d74b31..ce2992fe81651c47cb86a3ab0053a986254f511d 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
String locString = Integer.toString(locationId);
LandUseItem landUseItem = entry.getValue();
- double suitableLand = landUseItem.getSuitableLand();
+ double suitableLand = landUseItem.getSuitableLand(inputData.getTimestep().getYear());
totalSuitable += suitableLand;
if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println(String.format(" %d %15s,\t %.3f", locationId, "suitableLand", suitableLand));
setGamsParamValueTruncate(landP.addRecord(locString), suitableLand, 3);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
index 8e1d8764812dc7fe8045ac8e77da8ad00afac775..ca9f71d8b8246cb700b79cdb358f22eb539efc00 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
@@ -76,17 +76,15 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser {
LogWriter.printlnError("Total Area " + comment + ": " + l.getName() + ": " + total);
}
- double unprotectedNatural=0, suitableArea=0, protectedArea=0, unprotectedArea=0;
+ double unprotectedNatural=0, suitableArea=0, protectedArea=0;
for (LandUseItem a : areaRaster.values()) {
if (a != null) {
protectedArea += a.getProtectedArea();
- unprotectedArea += a.getUnprotectedArea();
unprotectedNatural += a.getUnprotectedNatural();
- suitableArea += a.getSuitableLand();
+ suitableArea += a.getSuitableLand(rasterInputData.getTimestep().getYear());
}
}
LogWriter.println("Total protectedArea " + comment + ": " + protectedArea);
- LogWriter.println("Total unprotectedArea " + comment + ": " + unprotectedArea);
LogWriter.println("Total unprotectedNatural " + comment + ": " + unprotectedNatural);
LogWriter.println("Total suitableArea " + comment + ": " + suitableArea);
}
@@ -120,17 +118,17 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser {
LogWriter.println("croplandChange" + croplandChange);
}
- double prevUnprotectedManagedForest = 0, prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest = 0, prevUnprotectedNatural = 0;
+ double prevManagedForest = 0, prevUnmanagedForest = 0, prevNatural = 0;
for (LandUseItem luItem: landUseItemsForLocation.values()) {
- prevUnprotectedManagedForest += luItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST);
- prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest += luItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST);
- prevUnprotectedNatural += luItem.getUnprotectedNatural();
+ prevManagedForest += luItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST);
+ prevUnmanagedForest += luItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST);
+ prevNatural += luItem.getTotalNatural();
}
- double prevForestTotal = prevUnprotectedManagedForest + prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest;
- double prevForestToNaturalFraction = (prevUnprotectedNatural > 0) ? prevForestTotal / prevUnprotectedNatural : 0;
- double prevForestManagedFraction = (prevForestTotal > 0) ? prevUnprotectedManagedForest / prevForestTotal : 0;
+ double prevForestTotal = prevManagedForest + prevUnmanagedForest;
+ double prevForestToNaturalFraction = (prevNatural > 0) ? prevForestTotal / prevNatural : 0;
+ double prevForestManagedFraction = (prevForestTotal > 0) ? prevManagedForest / prevForestTotal : 0;
double pastureFromCrop = 0;
double pastureFromNatural = 0;
@@ -335,8 +333,8 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser {
IrrigationItem aggIrig = aggregatedIrrigCosts.lazyGet(clusterId);
// Irrigation cost
- double suitableAreaThisTime = landUseItem.getSuitableLand();
- double suitableAreaSoFar = aggLandUse.getSuitableLand();
+ double suitableAreaThisTime = landUseItem.getSuitableLand(rasterInputData.getTimestep().getYear());
+ double suitableAreaSoFar = aggLandUse.getSuitableLand(rasterInputData.getTimestep().getYear());
if (irrigItem!= null) {
aggIrig.setIrrigCost( aggregateMean(aggIrig.getIrrigCost(), suitableAreaSoFar, irrigItem.getIrrigCost(), suitableAreaThisTime));
@@ -379,12 +377,12 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser {
aggLandUse.setIntensity(crop, intensityThisTime); // intensity currently is always the same within a location, so can just that any. If this changes need to average here.
}
- // Unavailable Fraction - confusingly, this must be done before protected areas and land covers are set due to getUnprotectedArea() call
- double unprotectedAreaSoFar = aggLandUse.getUnprotectedArea();
- double unprotectedAreaThisTime = landUseItem.getUnprotectedArea();
+ // Unavailable Fraction
+ double totalAreaSoFar = aggLandUse.getTotalLandCoverArea();
+ double totalAreaThisTime = landUseItem.getTotalLandCoverArea();
double unavailFractThisTime = landUseItem.getUnavailableFract();
double unavailFractSoFar = aggLandUse.getUnavailableFract();
- double averagedUnavailFract = aggregateMean(unavailFractSoFar, unprotectedAreaSoFar, unavailFractThisTime, unprotectedAreaThisTime);
+ double averagedUnavailFract = aggregateMean(unavailFractSoFar, totalAreaSoFar, unavailFractThisTime, totalAreaThisTime);
aggLandUse.setUnavailableFract(averagedUnavailFract);
// Protected areas
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
index 7c40083be3df0d1dd5150d21e2ac2947bf5289b1..b933746bbcedcc12bf0c9640087a60168538d5ff 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
@@ -50,10 +50,6 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial
return unavailableFract;
}
- public double getUnprotectedArea() {
- return getTotalLandCoverArea()-getProtectedArea();
- }
-
public Intensity getIntensity(CropType crop) {
return intensityMap.get(crop);
}
@@ -241,43 +237,60 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial
return total;
}
+ public double getTotalNatural() {
+ double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST);
+ return totalNatural;
+ }
+
/** averages protected areas across land cover types */
public double getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType c) {
double lcTypeArea = getLandCoverArea(c);
if (c.isProtectable()) {
- double unprotectedNaturalFract = getUnprotectedNaturalFract();
- return lcTypeArea * unprotectedNaturalFract;
+ double unprotectedNat = getUnprotectedNatural();
+ double totalNatural = getTotalNatural();
+ double unprotectedFract = (totalNatural > 0) ? unprotectedNat/totalNatural : 0;
+ return lcTypeArea * unprotectedFract;
}
else {
return lcTypeArea;
}
}
- private double getUnprotectedNaturalFract() {
- double unprotectedNat = getUnprotectedNatural();
- double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST);
- double unprotectedFract = (totalNatural > 0) ? unprotectedNat/totalNatural : 0;
- return unprotectedFract;
- }
-
- public double getUnprotectedNatural() {
+ private double getDesiredProtected() {
double totalLand = getTotalLandCoverArea();
if (totalLand <=0)
return 0;
- double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST);
-
double protectedFract = getProtectedArea() / totalLand;
double minAndProtectedA = totalLand * (1 - (1-protectedFract) * (1-unavailableFract) * (1-ModelConfig.MIN_NATURAL_RATE));
-
- double unprotectedNat = Math.max(0, totalNatural - minAndProtectedA); // if we are already using more than is protected then the unprotectedArea is 0
+ return minAndProtectedA;
+ }
+
+ public double getUnprotectedNatural() {
+ double desiredProtected = getDesiredProtected();
+ double totalNatural = getTotalNatural();
+ double unprotectedNat = Math.max(0, totalNatural - desiredProtected); // if we are already using more than is protected then the unprotectedArea is 0
return unprotectedNat;
}
- public double getSuitableLand() {
- double totalUnprotectedNatural = getUnprotectedNatural();
+ public double getSuitableLand(int year) {
+ double suitable;
double currentAgri = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.PASTURE) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND);
- double suitable = currentAgri + totalUnprotectedNatural;
+ double desiredProtected = getDesiredProtected();
+ double totalNatural = getTotalNatural();
+ double natAvailForAgri = totalNatural - desiredProtected; // could be negative, i.e. excess agricultural area already used
+
+ if (ModelConfig.FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS && natAvailForAgri < 0 && year >= ModelConfig.FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_START_YEAR) {
+ double proportion = 1;
+
+ if (year < ModelConfig.FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_END_YEAR)
+ proportion = 1.0 / (ModelConfig.FORCE_PROTECTED_AREAS_END_YEAR - year);
+
+ suitable = Math.max(0, currentAgri + natAvailForAgri * proportion); // netNatAvailForAgri is negative, but suitable area < 0 is not sensible (seems to happen with high barren areas)
+ }
+ else
+ suitable = currentAgri + Math.max(0, natAvailForAgri); // should be identical to currentAgri + getUnprotectedNatural() in this case
+
return suitable;
}
@@ -369,6 +382,6 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial
@Override
public String toString() {
- return "LandUseItem: [landCoverAreas=" + landCoverAreas + ", protectedArea=" + protectedArea + "], suitableLand " + getSuitableLand();
+ return "LandUseItem: [landCoverAreas=" + landCoverAreas + ", protectedArea=" + protectedArea + ", unavailableFract=" + unavailableFract + "]";
}
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java
index a6b99151dd697b915d0d202adeb2eec78a36bd4a..2e181271f883c0dca5694d030dbbc6d6dcddd8e6 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java
@@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ public class LandUseOutputer extends AbstractLandUseOutputer {
StringBuffer sbData = new StringBuffer(String.format("%.2f %.2f", lat, lon));
sbData.append(String.format(" %.8f", item.getTotalLandCoverArea()));
- sbData.append(String.format(" %.8f", item.getSuitableLand()));
+ sbData.append(String.format(" %.8f", item.getSuitableLand(year)));
for (LandCoverType cover : LandCoverType.values()) {
sbData.append(String.format(" %.8f", item.getLandCoverArea(cover)));