diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index c3fb641f4815adfc34b5c7589f0e92050fe3e71c..47a1f0c68cf76f7a745940b282e3951ef450992c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
for (Entry<CropType, CropUsageData> entry : cropUsage.entrySet()) {
CropType c = entry.getKey();
- double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getNetImports();
+ double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getShockedNetImports() != null ? entry.getValue().getShockedNetImports() : entry.getValue().getNetImports();
if (countryNetImports > 0)
totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(c, countryNetImports);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 1f059d7d10a6b33ff78dfb908485f127b269264c..0e61741ef57370b0520e87e9d257c8f4ad9ce891 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -176,6 +176,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String SUBSIDY_RATE_FILE = getProperty("SUBSIDY_RATE_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + SUBSIDY_RATE_FILENAME);
public static final String ANIMAL_RATES_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "animal_numbers.csv";;
public static final String INITIAL_CONSUMER_PRICE_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "consumerprices.csv";;
+ public static final String PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE = getProperty("PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE", OUTPUT_DIR + File.separator+ "productionShocks.csv");
// yield data
public static final String YIELD_DIR_BASE = getProperty("YIELD_DIR_BASE");
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index 1ef4d75d347aedcdaac16bb45c8848a633665c8b..1ab0bae7bd5af0801462f251fef50ea94e647042 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
}
public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, RasterSet<IrrigationItem> irrigData,
- Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, double globalGen2EcIncrease) {
+ Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, double globalGen2EcIncrease, Map<CropType,Double> productionShocks) {
currentTimestep = timestep;
calculateCountryPrices(worldPrices, currentTimestep);
@@ -137,6 +137,14 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
GamsRasterOutput result = opti.run();
+ for (Entry<CropType, Double> entry : productionShocks.entrySet()) {
+ if(entry != null) {
+ CropType crop = entry.getKey();
+ double shockValue = entry.getValue();
+ result.getCropUsageData().get(crop).updateForShock(shockValue);
+ }
+
+ }
// No longer need this as even profit max calcs imports in GAMS now
// if (!ModelConfig.ORIG_LEAST_COST_MIN) {
// GamsCountryInput countryInput = input.getCountryInput();
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
index 3c59266712c3800427b72d0b7068906098dee646..faae8d2aae50c875f01f4d4561f96c4cb53c1bb2 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.IrrigationItem;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.IrrigationRasterSet;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.LandUseItem;
+import ac.ed.lurg.shock.ProductionShockManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
import ac.ed.lurg.yield.YieldRaster;
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
private AbstractDemandManager demandManager;
private TradeManager tradeBarrierManager;
private SubsidyRateManager subsidyRateManager;
+ private ProductionShockManager productionShockManager;
private InternationalMarket internationalMarket;
private CountryBoundaryRaster countryBoundaryRaster;
private RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> clusterIdRaster;
@@ -45,6 +47,7 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
this.internationalMarket = internationalMarket;
this.globalLandUseRaster = globalLandUseRaster;
tradeBarrierManager = new TradeManager(compositeCountryManager);
+ productionShockManager = new ProductionShockManager();
subsidyRateManager = new SubsidyRateManager(compositeCountryManager);
craftyManager = new CraftyProdManager();
}
@@ -108,10 +111,11 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
Collection<RasterKey> countryKeys = countryBoundaryRaster.getKeysFor(ca.getCountry());
YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces = yieldSurfaces.createSubsetForKeys(countryKeys);
RasterSet<IrrigationItem> irrigData = currentIrrigationData.createSubsetForKeys(countryKeys);
+ Map<CropType, Double> productionShocks=productionShockManager.getShocksForCountry(timestep, ca.getCountry());
// do the optimization
try {
- ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), gen2Increase);
+ ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), gen2Increase, productionShocks);
// update global rasters
globalLandUseRaster.putAll(ca.getLandUses());
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/CropUsageData.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/CropUsageData.java
index aaa9019951914c05c7fe3f5848a38db7648eb9c0..1299392bb2643ad1dcebc578a2f617c5cc54c1c7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/CropUsageData.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/CropUsageData.java
@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ public class CropUsageData {
private double prod;
private double prodCost;
private double area;
+ private Double shockedNetImports;
+ private Double shockedProd;
public CropUsageData(double prod) {
this.prod = prod;
@@ -44,6 +46,14 @@ public class CropUsageData {
return prod;
}
+ public Double getShockedNetImports() {
+ return shockedNetImports;
+ }
+
+ public Double getShockedProduction() {
+ return shockedProd;
+ }
+
public double getProdCost() {
return prodCost;
}
@@ -55,4 +65,14 @@ public class CropUsageData {
public double getArea(){
return area;
}
+
+ public void updateForShock(double shockValue) {
+
+ double productionLoss = prod*shockValue;
+ this.shockedProd = prod - productionLoss;
+ this.shockedNetImports = netImports + productionLoss;
+
+ }
+
+
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..717f3eed84b6ae8a7d27314050003ba9f331a06c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/shock/ProductionShockManager.java
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.shock;
+
+import java.io.File;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountry;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.StringTabularReader;
+
+
+public class ProductionShockManager {
+
+ private StringTabularReader productionShockReader;
+
+ public ProductionShockManager() {
+
+ String shockFile = ModelConfig.PRODUCTIONSHOCKS_PARAMETER_FILE;
+ productionShockReader = new StringTabularReader(",", new String[]{"year", "country", "crop", "shockFactor", "region"});
+
+ if (new File(shockFile).isFile())
+ productionShockReader.read(shockFile);
+ else
+ LogWriter.println("Can't find a production shock file (" +shockFile + "), so will not shock production");
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, Double> getShocksForCountry(Timestep timestep, CompositeCountry cc) {
+ Map<CropType, Double> shocks = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
+
+ Map<String, String> queryMap = new HashMap<String, String>();
+ queryMap.put("year", Integer.toString(timestep.getYear()));
+ queryMap.put("country", cc.getName());
+
+ List<Map<String, String>> rows = productionShockReader.query(queryMap);
+ for (Map<String, String> row : rows) {
+ String cropTypeS = row.get("crop");
+ String shockFactorS = row.get("shockFactor");
+ CropType crop = CropType.getForFaoName(cropTypeS);
+ Double shockFactor = Double.valueOf(shockFactorS);
+
+ LogWriter.println("Got production shock at " + timestep + ": " + cc.getName() + " " + cropTypeS + " " + shockFactorS);
+
+ shocks.put(crop, shockFactor);
+ }
+ return shocks;
+
+ }
+
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/YieldResponse.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/YieldResponse.java
index eb4dda28ba44a3c193c4dd7032516c86c1a19fbd..66c9272c1b86c5614feef1c7606b007bdd45cff7 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/YieldResponse.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/yield/YieldResponse.java
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ public class YieldResponse {
public void adjustYields(double adjustment) {
for (Map.Entry<YieldType, Double> entry : yields.entrySet()) {
- yields.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue() * adjustment);
+ yields.put(entry.getKey(), entry.getValue() * (1-adjustment));
}
}
}
\ No newline at end of file