From bf4b2c820fb72e868c51b7f4c67026a315bbee29 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: s1924442 <b.arendarczyk@sms.ed.ac.uk>
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2021 21:45:13 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Added carbon market.
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 5 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/CarbonMarket.java | 91 +++++++++++++++
src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java | 104 ++++++++++++++++--
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 2 +
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 12 +-
.../ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java | 11 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java | 27 ++++-
.../ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java | 11 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java | 8 +-
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java | 15 ++-
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 8 +-
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOutput.java | 9 +-
.../country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java | 2 +-
.../lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOutput.java | 9 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java | 12 ++
15 files changed, 292 insertions(+), 34 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 src/ac/ed/lurg/CarbonMarket.java
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 665ea1ad..31fa02be 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -138,7 +138,7 @@ $gdxin
POSITIVE VARIABLE cropArea, fertI, irrigI, otherIntensity, ruminantFeed, monogastricFeed, importAmount, exportAmount,
- agriLandExpansion, cropIncrease, cropDecrease, pastureDecrease, pastureIncrease, totalFeedDM,
+ totalFeedDM,
landCoverArea, landCoverChange, woodHarvest;
* POSITIVE VARIABLE A;
@@ -305,6 +305,7 @@ $gdxin
parameter netImportCost(all_types);
parameter feedCostRate(feed_crop);
parameter productionShock(all_types);
+ scalar netCarbonFlux;
* Production quantities based on smaller area (before unhandledCropArea adjustment applied)
totalProd(crop) = sum(location, cropArea.l(crop, location) * yield.l(crop, location));
@@ -325,6 +326,8 @@ $gdxin
netImportCost(import_crop) = importAmount.l(import_crop) * importPrices(import_crop) - exportAmount.l(import_crop) * exportPrices(import_crop);
netImportAmount(import_crop) = importAmount.l(import_crop) - exportAmount.l(import_crop);
+ netCarbonFlux = SUM(location, carbonFlux.L(location));
+
Scalar totalCostsLessLU;
totalCostsLessLU = sum(crop,totalProdCost(crop))+ sum(import_crop,netImportCost(import_crop));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/CarbonMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/CarbonMarket.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..735a277f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/CarbonMarket.java
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg;
+
+import java.io.FileInputStream;
+import java.io.FileOutputStream;
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.io.ObjectInputStream;
+import java.io.ObjectOutputStream;
+import java.util.Collection;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Map.Entry;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.AbstractCountryAgent;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryAgent;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
+import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropToDoubleMap;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+
+public class CarbonMarket {
+ private GlobalPrice carbonPrice;
+
+ public CarbonMarket() {
+ if (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN) {
+ carbonPrice = GlobalPrice.createInitial(ModelConfig.CARBON_PRICE, 0);
+ } else {
+ carbonPrice = deserializeCarbonPrice();
+ }
+ }
+
+ public GlobalPrice getCarbonPrice() {
+ return carbonPrice;
+ }
+
+ /*
+ public void updateCarbonPrice(Collection<CountryAgent> countryAgents, double carbonDemand, Timestep timestep) {
+ double globalNetCarbonFlux;
+ for (CountryAgent ca : countryAgents) {
+ double netCarbonFlux = ca.getNetCarbonFlux();
+ globalNetCarbonFlux += netCarbonFlux;
+ }
+
+ GlobalPrice prevPrice = carbonPrice;
+ double imports = carbonDemand;
+ double exportsBeforeTransportLosses = globalNetCarbonFlux;
+ LogWriter.println(timestep.getYear() + " Updating carbon prices");
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, timestep, globalNetCarbonFlux);
+ LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for carbon updated from %s to %s \n", prevPrice, adjustedPrice));
+ if (adjustedPrice.getStockLevel() < 0)
+ LogWriter.println("Global stocks are below zero carbon, " + timestep.getYear());
+
+ carbonPrice = adjustedPrice;
+ }
+ */
+
+ public void serializeGlobalPrices() {
+ try {
+ LogWriter.println("Starting serializing CarbonPrice to " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ FileOutputStream fileOut = new FileOutputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ ObjectOutputStream out = new ObjectOutputStream(fileOut);
+ out.writeObject(carbonPrice);
+ out.close();
+ fileOut.close();
+ LogWriter.println("Serialized carbon price is saved");
+ } catch (IOException i) {
+ i.printStackTrace();
+ }
+ }
+
+ @SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
+ private GlobalPrice deserializeCarbonPrice() {
+ try {
+ GlobalPrice initCarbonPrice;
+ FileInputStream fileIn = new FileInputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ ObjectInputStream in = new ObjectInputStream(fileIn);
+ initCarbonPrice = (GlobalPrice) in.readObject();
+ in.close();
+ fileIn.close();
+ LogWriter.println("Deserialized " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ return initCarbonPrice;
+ } catch (IOException i) {
+ LogWriter.printlnError("Problem deserializing " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ LogWriter.print(i);
+ return null;
+ } catch (ClassNotFoundException c) {
+ LogWriter.printlnError("GlobalPrice class not found");
+ c.printStackTrace();
+ return null;
+ }
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index 5f3d517f..c069e517 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -6,8 +6,10 @@ import java.io.FileOutputStream;
import java.io.IOException;
import java.io.ObjectInputStream;
import java.io.ObjectOutputStream;
+import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Collection;
import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.List;
import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Map.Entry;
@@ -23,22 +25,28 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class InternationalMarket {
private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices;
+ private GlobalPrice carbonPrice;
+ private GlobalPrice timberPrice;
private PriceShockManager priceShockManager;
+ @SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
public InternationalMarket() {
if(ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN) {
worldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
-
Map<CropType, Double> stockLevel = getInitialStockLevels();
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
Double initialStock = stockLevel.get(crop);
worldPrices.put(crop, GlobalPrice.createInitial(crop.getInitialPrice(), initialStock));
}
+
+ carbonPrice = GlobalPrice.createInitial(ModelConfig.CARBON_PRICE, 0);
}
else {
- worldPrices = deserializeGlobalPrice();
+ List<Object> deserializedPrices = deserializeGlobalPrice();
+ worldPrices = (Map<CropType, GlobalPrice>) deserializedPrices.get(0);
+ carbonPrice = (GlobalPrice) deserializedPrices.get(1);
}
priceShockManager = new PriceShockManager();
}
@@ -46,6 +54,10 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
public Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> getWorldPrices() {
return worldPrices;
}
+
+ public GlobalPrice getCarbonPrice() {
+ return carbonPrice;
+ }
private Map<CropType, Double> getInitialStockLevels() {
Map<CropType, Double> initialStockLevels = new StockReader().read();
@@ -53,7 +65,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
return initialStockLevels;
}
- void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<AbstractCountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand, Timestep timestep) {
+ void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<AbstractCountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand, double carbonDemand, Timestep timestep) {
CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
CropToDoubleMap totalProduction = new CropToDoubleMap();
@@ -68,6 +80,7 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getShockedNetImports();
totalProduction.incrementValue(c, (entry.getValue().getProductionExpected()-entry.getValue().getProductionShock()));
+ //TODO this doesn't work when both imports and exports > 0
if (countryNetImports > 0)
totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(c, countryNetImports);
else
@@ -85,13 +98,34 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
double exportsBeforeTransportLosses = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
LogWriter.println(timestep.getYear() + " Updating " + crop.getGamsName() + " prices");
- GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, timestep, totalProduction.get(crop));
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, timestep, totalProduction.get(crop), true);
LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s to %s \n", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, adjustedPrice));
if (adjustedPrice.getStockLevel() < 0)
LogWriter.println("Global stocks are below zero" + crop.getGamsName() + ", " + timestep.getYear());
worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
}
+
+ // Update carbon price
+ double totalCarbonSequestered = 0;
+ double totalCarbonEmitted = 0;
+ for (AbstractCountryAgent ca : countryAgents) {
+ double netCarbonFlux = ca.getNetCarbonFlux();
+ if (netCarbonFlux >= 0)
+ totalCarbonEmitted += netCarbonFlux;
+ else
+ totalCarbonSequestered -= netCarbonFlux;
+ }
+
+ totalCarbonSequestered = Math.max(totalCarbonSequestered, 0.0000001);
+ GlobalPrice prevPrice = carbonPrice;
+ LogWriter.println(timestep.getYear() + " Updating carbon prices");
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(carbonDemand, totalCarbonSequestered, timestep, totalCarbonSequestered, false);
+ LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for carbon updated from %s to %s \n", prevPrice, adjustedPrice));
+ if (adjustedPrice.getStockLevel() < 0)
+ LogWriter.println("Global stocks are below zero carbon, " + timestep.getYear());
+
+ carbonPrice = adjustedPrice;
}
void writeGlobalMarketFile(Timestep timestep, BufferedWriter outputFile) throws IOException {
@@ -105,14 +139,27 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
outputFile.newLine();
}
+ // Carbon price
+ StringBuffer sbData = new StringBuffer();
+ sbData.append(String.format("%d,%s", timestep.getYear(), "carbon"));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.1f,%.1f", carbonPrice.getImportAmount(), carbonPrice.getExportsAfterTransportLosses()));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.8f,%.3f", carbonPrice.getExportPrice(), carbonPrice.getStockLevel()));
+
+ outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
+ outputFile.newLine();
}
public void serializeGlobalPrices() {
+
+ List<Object> pricesToSerialize = new ArrayList<Object>();
+ pricesToSerialize.add(worldPrices);
+ pricesToSerialize.add(carbonPrice);
+
try {
LogWriter.println("Starting serializing GlobalPrice to " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_INTERNATIONAL_MARKET_FILE);
FileOutputStream fileOut = new FileOutputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_INTERNATIONAL_MARKET_FILE);
ObjectOutputStream out = new ObjectOutputStream(fileOut);
- out.writeObject(worldPrices);
+ out.writeObject(pricesToSerialize);
out.close();
fileOut.close();
LogWriter.println("Serialized international market data is saved");
@@ -120,14 +167,29 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
i.printStackTrace();
}
}
-
+
+/*
+ public void serializeCarbonPrices() {
+ try {
+ LogWriter.println("Starting serializing CarbonPrice to " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ FileOutputStream fileOut = new FileOutputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ ObjectOutputStream out = new ObjectOutputStream(fileOut);
+ out.writeObject(carbonPrice);
+ out.close();
+ fileOut.close();
+ LogWriter.println("Serialized carbon price is saved");
+ } catch (IOException i) {
+ i.printStackTrace();
+ }
+ }
+*/
@SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
- private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> deserializeGlobalPrice() {
+ private List<Object> deserializeGlobalPrice() {
try {
- Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> initGlobalPrices;
+ List<Object> initGlobalPrices;
FileInputStream fileIn = new FileInputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_INTERNATIONAL_MARKET_FILE);
ObjectInputStream in = new ObjectInputStream(fileIn);
- initGlobalPrices = (Map<CropType, GlobalPrice>) in.readObject();
+ initGlobalPrices = (List<Object>) in.readObject();
in.close();
fileIn.close();
LogWriter.println("Deserialized " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_INTERNATIONAL_MARKET_FILE);
@@ -142,6 +204,30 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
return null;
}
}
+
+ /*
+ @SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
+ private GlobalPrice deserializeCarbonPrice() {
+ try {
+ GlobalPrice initCarbonPrice;
+ FileInputStream fileIn = new FileInputStream(ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ ObjectInputStream in = new ObjectInputStream(fileIn);
+ initCarbonPrice = (GlobalPrice) in.readObject();
+ in.close();
+ fileIn.close();
+ LogWriter.println("Deserialized " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ return initCarbonPrice;
+ } catch (IOException i) {
+ LogWriter.printlnError("Problem deserializing " + ModelConfig.SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE);
+ LogWriter.print(i);
+ return null;
+ } catch (ClassNotFoundException c) {
+ LogWriter.printlnError("GlobalPrice class not found");
+ c.printStackTrace();
+ return null;
+ }
+ }
+ */
public void applyPriceShocks(Timestep timestep) {
Map<CropType, Double> shocks = priceShockManager.getShocks(timestep);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 5c172641..77dddcf6 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import java.util.Enumeration;
import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Properties;
+import java.lang.Long;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.ModelFitType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
@@ -424,6 +425,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
// Forestry parameters
public static final String CONVERSION_COST_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "conversion_costs.csv";
+ public static final String SERIALIZED_CARBON_MARKET_FILE = CALIB_DIR + File.separator + "CarbonMarket.ser";
public static final double CARBON_PRICE = getDoubleProperty("CARBON_PRICE", 0.02); // $1000/tC-eq
public static final double WOOD_PRICE = getDoubleProperty("WOOD_PRICE", 0.05); // $1000/tC-eq
public static final int FOREST_LOCKIN_PERIOD = getIntProperty("FOREST_LOCKIN_PERIOD", 30); // cannot convert forest after planting for this many years
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 8285834d..6d8d436f 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -74,6 +74,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
private RasterHeaderDetails desiredProjection;
private InternationalMarket internationalMarket;
+ //private CarbonMarket carbonMarket;
private IrrigationRasterSet currentIrrigationData;
private RasterSet<LandUseItem> globalLandUseRaster;
private RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> clusterIdRaster;
@@ -110,6 +111,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
globalLandUseRaster = new RasterSet<LandUseItem>(desiredProjection);
internationalMarket = new InternationalMarket();
+ //carbonMarket = new CarbonMarket();
createCountryAgents(compositeCountryManager.getAll());
}
@@ -141,6 +143,10 @@ public class ModelMain {
double previousGen2EcDDemand = (timestep.isInitialTimestep() || ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ) ? 0: demandManager.getSecondGenBioenergyDemand(timestep.getPreviousTimestep());
double gen2EcDDemand = demandManager.getSecondGenBioenergyDemand(ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? new Timestep(1) : timestep);
double gen2Increase = (gen2EcDDemand>previousGen2EcDDemand) ? gen2EcDDemand - previousGen2EcDDemand : 0.0;
+ double previousCarbonDemand = (timestep.isInitialTimestep() || ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ) ? 0: 0.0;
+ double carbonDemand = 1000; //TODO read from file
+ double carbonDemandIncrease = (carbonDemand > previousCarbonDemand) ? carbonDemand - previousCarbonDemand: 0;
+
CarbonFluxRasterSet currentCarbonFluxData = getCarbonFluxData(timestep);
@@ -148,15 +154,15 @@ public class ModelMain {
DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts = new ConversionCostReader().read();
- countryAgents.determineProductionForAll(timestep, yieldSurfaces, currentIrrigationData, gen2Increase, currentCarbonFluxData, currentWoodYieldData, conversionCosts);
- internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents.getAll(), gen2EcDDemand, timestep);
+ countryAgents.determineProductionForAll(timestep, yieldSurfaces, currentIrrigationData, gen2Increase, currentCarbonFluxData, currentWoodYieldData, conversionCosts, carbonDemandIncrease);
+ internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents.getAll(), gen2EcDDemand, carbonDemand, timestep);
// loop for iterations. Could check within a tolerance using internationalMarket.findMaxPriceDiff, not doing so as doesn't find a solution due to inelastic consumption
for (int i=0; i < ModelConfig.DEMAND_RECALC_MAX_ITERATIONS; i++) {
LogWriter.println("\n++ Re-estimating prices and demand " + i);
countryAgents.recalculateDemandForAll(); // recalculate demand from new prices
countryAgents.updateNetImportsForAll(); // calculate imports and exports
- internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents.getAll(), gen2EcDDemand, timestep); // calculate prices
+ internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents.getAll(), gen2EcDDemand, carbonDemand, timestep); // calculate prices
}
internationalMarket.applyPriceShocks(timestep);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
index c98997ab..87937387 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/AbstractCountryAgent.java
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
protected Map<CropType, Double> tradeBarriers;
protected Map<CommodityType, Double> currentProjectedDemand;
protected Map<CropType, CountryPrice> currentCountryPrices;
+ protected CountryPrice currentCarbonPrice;
protected Map<CommodityType, Map<CropType, Double>> baseDemandFact;
protected Timestep currentTimestep;
protected Map<CommodityType, Map<CropType, Double>> currentMinDemandFract;
@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
currentMinDemandFract = getMinDemandFraction();
}
- private void calculateCountryPrices(Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices){
+ private void calculateCountryPrices(Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, GlobalPrice carbonPrice){
Map<CropType, CountryPrice> countryPrices = new HashMap <CropType, CountryPrice>();
for (CropType c : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
@@ -51,6 +52,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
}
currentCountryPrices = countryPrices;
+ currentCarbonPrice = new CountryPrice(0.0, carbonPrice.getExportPrice());
}
private void calculateDemand(boolean outputGamsDemand) {
@@ -58,8 +60,8 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
currentProjectedDemand = demandManager.getDemand(country, currentTimestep.getYear(), producerPrices, outputGamsDemand);
}
- protected void calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, boolean outputGamsDemand) {
- calculateCountryPrices(worldPrices);
+ protected void calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, GlobalPrice carbonPrice, boolean outputGamsDemand) {
+ calculateCountryPrices(worldPrices, carbonPrice);
calculateDemand(outputGamsDemand);
}
@@ -169,4 +171,7 @@ public abstract class AbstractCountryAgent {
}
abstract public Map<CropType, CropUsageData> getCropUsageData();
+
+ abstract public double getNetCarbonFlux();
+
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index fb713fec..8478526c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -114,10 +114,11 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
public GamsRasterOutput determineProduction(YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, RasterSet<IrrigationItem> irrigData,
Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices, double globalGen2EcIncrease, RasterSet<CarbonFluxItem> carbonFluxData,
- RasterSet<WoodYieldItem> woodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts) {
+ RasterSet<WoodYieldItem> woodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts,
+ double carbonDemandIncrease, GlobalPrice carbonPrice) {
// project demand
- calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(worldPrices, false);
+ calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(worldPrices, carbonPrice, false);
if (saveGamsGdxFiles && ModelConfig.PRICE_ELASTIC_DEMAND)
saveGDXFile("demand");
@@ -135,7 +136,7 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
yieldClusters = calcYieldClusters(irrigData, countryYieldSurfaces); // this should only be on the first timestep
// optimize areas and intensity
- GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(irrigData, countryYieldSurfaces, globalGen2EcIncrease, carbonFluxData, woodYieldData, conversionCosts);
+ GamsRasterInput input = getGamsRasterInput(irrigData, countryYieldSurfaces, globalGen2EcIncrease, carbonFluxData, woodYieldData, conversionCosts, carbonDemandIncrease);
GamsRasterOptimiser opti = new GamsRasterOptimiser(input, yieldClusters);
LogWriter.println("Running " + country.getName() + ", currentTimestep " + currentTimestep);
@@ -173,7 +174,8 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
}
private GamsRasterInput getGamsRasterInput(RasterSet<IrrigationItem> irrigData, YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces, double gen2EcIncrease,
- RasterSet<CarbonFluxItem> carbonFluxData, RasterSet<WoodYieldItem> woodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts) {
+ RasterSet<CarbonFluxItem> carbonFluxData, RasterSet<WoodYieldItem> woodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts,
+ double carbonDemandIncrease) {
double allowedImportChange;
if (currentTimestep.isInitialTimestep() || (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN && currentTimestep.getTimestep() <= ModelConfig.END_FIRST_STAGE_CALIBRATION)) { // initialisation time-step
@@ -203,7 +205,7 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
// avoid getting stuck at 0
if (CropType.ENERGY_CROPS.equals(crop)) {
double croplandArea = LandUseItem.getTotalLandCover(previousGamsRasterOutput.getLandUses().values(), LandCoverType.CROPLAND);
- double ecMaxExport = gen2EcIncrease * croplandArea / 1500.0 * 2; // twice the share
+ double ecMaxExport = gen2EcIncrease * croplandArea / 1500.0 * 2; // gen2EcIncrease * croplandArea / totalArea * sharePerCountry
if (ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN && currentTimestep.getTimestep() <= ModelConfig.END_FIRST_STAGE_CALIBRATION) {
baseTrade = 0.0;
ecMaxExport = 0.0;
@@ -217,6 +219,15 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
importConstraints.put(crop, new TradeConstraint(baseTrade - changeDown, baseTrade + changeUp));
}
+ // Carbon import/export constraints
+ double baseTrade = getNetCarbonFlux();
+ double countryArea = LandUseItem.getTotalLandArea(previousGamsRasterOutput.getLandUses().values());
+ double changeUp = 0.0;
+ if (allowedImportChange > 0.0)
+ changeUp = Math.max(baseTrade * allowedImportChange, carbonDemandIncrease * countryArea / 1500 * 2);
+
+ TradeConstraint carbonTradeConstraint = new TradeConstraint(0, baseTrade + changeUp);
+
// Aggregate minimum land cover for current timestep
DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCoverForTimestep = new DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double>(); //<Location, LandCoverType, Area>
@@ -231,7 +242,7 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
}
GamsCountryInput countryLevelInputs = new GamsCountryInput(country, currentProjectedDemand, currentCountryPrices, importConstraints,
- previousGamsRasterOutput.getCropUsageData(), currentMinDemandFract, subsidyRates);
+ previousGamsRasterOutput.getCropUsageData(), currentMinDemandFract, subsidyRates, currentCarbonPrice, carbonTradeConstraint);
GamsRasterInput input = new GamsRasterInput(currentTimestep, countryYieldSurfaces, previousGamsRasterOutput.getLandUses(), irrigData,
carbonFluxData, woodYieldData, minimumLandCoverForTimestep, conversionCosts, countryLevelInputs);
@@ -392,4 +403,8 @@ public class CountryAgent extends AbstractCountryAgent {
}
}
}
+
+ public double getNetCarbonFlux() {
+ return previousGamsRasterOutput.getNetCarbonFlux();
+ }
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
index a63d938e..1012723d 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgentManager.java
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.List;
import java.util.Map;
+import ac.ed.lurg.CarbonMarket;
import ac.ed.lurg.InternationalMarket;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.Timestep;
@@ -47,7 +48,7 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
private CraftyProdManager craftyManager;
public CountryAgentManager (CompositeCountryManager compositeCountryManager, AbstractDemandManager demandManager,
- CountryBoundaryRaster countryBoundaryRaster, InternationalMarket internationalMarket,
+ CountryBoundaryRaster countryBoundaryRaster, InternationalMarket internationalMarket,
RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> clusterIdRaster, RasterSet<LandUseItem> globalLandUseRaster) {
this.demandManager = demandManager;
this.countryBoundaryRaster = countryBoundaryRaster;
@@ -103,7 +104,8 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
}
public void determineProductionForAll(Timestep timestep, YieldRaster yieldSurfaces, IrrigationRasterSet currentIrrigationData, double gen2Increase,
- CarbonFluxRasterSet currentCarbonFluxData, WoodYieldRasterSet currentWoodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts) {
+ CarbonFluxRasterSet currentCarbonFluxData, WoodYieldRasterSet currentWoodYieldData, DoubleMap<LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> conversionCosts,
+ double carbonDemandIncrease) {
for (AbstractCountryAgent aca : countryAgents) {
aca.setCurrentTimestep(timestep);
@@ -118,7 +120,8 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
RasterSet<WoodYieldItem> woodYieldData = currentWoodYieldData.createSubsetForKeys(countryKeys);
try {
- ca.determineProduction(countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), gen2Increase, carbonFluxData, woodYieldData, conversionCosts);
+ ca.determineProduction(countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), gen2Increase, carbonFluxData, woodYieldData,
+ conversionCosts, carbonDemandIncrease, internationalMarket.getCarbonPrice());
// update global rasters
globalLandUseRaster.putAll(ca.getLandUses());
@@ -147,7 +150,7 @@ public class CountryAgentManager {
public void recalculateDemandForAll() {
for (CountryAgent ca : gamsCountryAgents) {
ca.shockGDP();
- ca.calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), true);
+ ca.calculateCountryPricesAndDemand(internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), internationalMarket.getCarbonPrice(), true);
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index eb54a680..163eb9da 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -66,11 +66,15 @@ public class GlobalPrice implements Serializable {
return transportLosses;
}
- public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double newImports, double newExportAmountBeforeLoss, Timestep timestep, double production) {
+ public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double newImports, double newExportAmountBeforeLoss, Timestep timestep, double production, boolean hasTransportLosses) {
if (newImports > 0 || newExportAmountBeforeLoss > 0) {
double oldDiff = timestep.getTimestep() != timestepId ? 0.0 : exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount; // if recomputing for same year need to back our previous adjustment
- double transportLossRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, timestep.getYear());
+ double transportLossRate;
+ if (hasTransportLosses)
+ transportLossRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, timestep.getYear());
+ else
+ transportLossRate = 0;
double newTransportLosses = newExportAmountBeforeLoss * transportLossRate;
double stockChange = newExportAmountBeforeLoss - newTransportLosses - newImports - oldDiff;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
index 56e8ef9e..f0fec4b8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsCountryInput.java
@@ -20,10 +20,13 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
private Map<CropType, CropUsageData> previousCropUsageData;
private Map<CommodityType, Map<CropType, Double>> minDemandFractions;
private Map<CropType, Double> subsidyRates;
+ private CountryPrice carbonPrice;
+ private TradeConstraint carbonTradeConstraint;
public GamsCountryInput(CompositeCountry country, Map<CommodityType, Double> projectedDemand, Map<CropType, CountryPrice> countryPrices,
Map<CropType, TradeConstraint> importConstraints, Map<CropType, CropUsageData> previousCropUsageData,
- Map<CommodityType, Map<CropType, Double>> minDemandFracts, Map<CropType, Double> subsidyRates) {
+ Map<CommodityType, Map<CropType, Double>> minDemandFracts, Map<CropType, Double> subsidyRates,
+ CountryPrice carbonPrice, TradeConstraint carbonTradeConstraint) {
super();
this.country = country;
this.projectedDemand = projectedDemand;
@@ -32,6 +35,8 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
this.previousCropUsageData = previousCropUsageData;
this.minDemandFractions = minDemandFracts;
this.subsidyRates = subsidyRates;
+ this.carbonPrice = carbonPrice;
+ this.carbonTradeConstraint = carbonTradeConstraint;
}
public CompositeCountry getCountry() {
@@ -83,4 +88,12 @@ public class GamsCountryInput {
public Map<CropType, Double> getSubsidyRates() {
return subsidyRates;
}
+
+ public CountryPrice getCarbonPrice() {
+ return carbonPrice;
+ }
+
+ public TradeConstraint getCarbonTradeConstraint() {
+ return carbonTradeConstraint;
+ }
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index 51ee8d37..047774d8 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -313,6 +313,7 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
setGamsParamValue(previousMonogastricFeedP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), monogastricFeed, 3);
setGamsParamValue(seedAndWasteRateP.addRecord(crop.getGamsName()), seedAndWasteRate, 3);
}
+
//below in case running without shocks to use original values in model config
@@ -335,7 +336,7 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
}
addScalar(inDB, "maxLandExpansionRate", maxExpansion, 3);
- addScalar(inDB, "carbonPrice", ModelConfig.CARBON_PRICE, 3);
+ addScalar(inDB, "carbonPrice", countryInput.getCarbonPrice().getExportPrice(), 3);
addScalar(inDB, "woodPrice", ModelConfig.WOOD_PRICE, 3);
// Carbon fluxes
@@ -591,8 +592,11 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
reservedDeforested.put(locId, LandCoverType.getForName(landCover), deforestedArea);
}
}
+
+ // Carbon flux
+ double netCarbonFlux = outDB.getParameter("netCarbonFlux").getFirstRecord().getValue();
- GamsLocationOutput results = new GamsLocationOutput(modelStatus, landUses, cropUsageData, landCoverChanges, minimumLandCoverAdditions, reservedDeforested);
+ GamsLocationOutput results = new GamsLocationOutput(modelStatus, landUses, cropUsageData, landCoverChanges, minimumLandCoverAdditions, reservedDeforested, netCarbonFlux);
return results;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOutput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOutput.java
index 05a7a54f..7d579e79 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOutput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOutput.java
@@ -19,13 +19,15 @@ public class GamsLocationOutput {
TripleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> landCoverChanges;
DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCover;
DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested;
+ double netCarbonFlux;
public GamsLocationOutput(ModelStat status,
Map<Integer, LandUseItem> landUses,
Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsageData,
TripleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, LandCoverType, Double> landCoverChange,
DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCover,
- DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested) {
+ DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested,
+ double netCarbonFlux) {
super();
this.status = status;
this.landUses = landUses;
@@ -33,6 +35,7 @@ public class GamsLocationOutput {
this.landCoverChanges = landCoverChange;
this.minimumLandCover = minimumLandCover;
this.reservedDeforested = reservedDeforested;
+ this.netCarbonFlux = netCarbonFlux;
}
public ModelStat getStatus() {
@@ -57,4 +60,8 @@ public class GamsLocationOutput {
public DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> getReservedDeforested() {
return reservedDeforested;
}
+
+ public double getNetCarbonFlux() {
+ return netCarbonFlux;
+ }
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
index 7c3e196e..8afd9b65 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser {
private GamsRasterOutput convertToRaster(GamsLocationInput gamsInput, GamsLocationOutput gamsOutput) {
RasterSet<LandUseItem> newIntensityRaster = allocAreas(gamsInput.getPreviousLandUse(), gamsOutput, gamsInput.getTimestep().getYear());
- return new GamsRasterOutput(gamsOutput.getStatus(), newIntensityRaster, gamsOutput.getCommoditiesData(), gamsOutput.getMinimumLandCover(), gamsOutput.getReservedDeforested());
+ return new GamsRasterOutput(gamsOutput.getStatus(), newIntensityRaster, gamsOutput.getCommoditiesData(), gamsOutput.getMinimumLandCover(), gamsOutput.getReservedDeforested(), gamsOutput.netCarbonFlux);
}
private RasterSet<LandUseItem> createWithSameLandCovers(RasterSet<LandUseItem> toCopy) {
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOutput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOutput.java
index b141c061..c16a6b80 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOutput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOutput.java
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ public class GamsRasterOutput {
private Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsageData;
private DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCoverAdditions;
DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested;
+ double netCarbonFlux;
public GamsRasterOutput(RasterSet<LandUseItem> landUses, Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsageData) {
super();
@@ -26,11 +27,13 @@ public class GamsRasterOutput {
}
public GamsRasterOutput(ModelStat status, RasterSet<LandUseItem> intensityRaster, Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsageData,
- DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCoverAdditions, DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested) {
+ DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> minimumLandCoverAdditions, DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> reservedDeforested,
+ double netCarbonFlux) {
this(intensityRaster, cropUsageData);
this.status = status;
this.minimumLandCoverAdditions = minimumLandCoverAdditions;
this.reservedDeforested = reservedDeforested;
+ this.netCarbonFlux = netCarbonFlux;
}
public ModelStat getStatus() {
@@ -52,4 +55,8 @@ public class GamsRasterOutput {
public DoubleMap<Integer, LandCoverType, Double> getReservedDeforested() {
return reservedDeforested;
}
+
+ public double getNetCarbonFlux() {
+ return netCarbonFlux;
+ }
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
index 1e6c5cb6..56ca4334 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java
@@ -455,6 +455,18 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial
}
return total;
}
+
+ public static double getTotalLandArea(Collection<? extends LandUseItem> landUses) {
+ double total = 0;
+ for (LandUseItem a : landUses) {
+ if (a!=null) {
+ Double d = a.getTotalLandCoverArea();
+ if (d!=null)
+ total += d;
+ }
+ }
+ return total;
+ }
public static double getTotalCropArea(Collection<LandUseItem> landUses, CropType crop) {
double total = 0;
--
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