diff --git a/data/sims/globalShock.csv b/data/sims/globalShock.csv index f5081223c034722279304d221e962826f00ff9de..ec89007cc0e152048175758317872ef4042fedaf 100644 --- a/data/sims/globalShock.csv +++ b/data/sims/globalShock.csv @@ -1,21 +1,21 @@ -Ensemble,Scenario,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,LAND_CHANGE_COST,MARKET_LAMBA,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,SSP_SCENARIO,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,TRANSPORT_COST,RCP,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,PRICE_CALCULATION,YIELD_DIR_TOP,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO 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+shocks/withShockWithTax,s4,0.960874657414893,0.0194097808551165,1.025,0.85,1.81153483560056,1.15,0.000279015531982238,0.503912534258511,0.182453074797474,0.475,0.998043732870745,0.110368611745326,0.664744194066573,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00180496552244993,0.959612716462545,0.114296975860531,0.642969758605306,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,0.875,0.0625,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocks/withShockWithTax,s5,1.14060088096457,0.0221153483560056,0.925,1.05,1.54097808551165,0.95,0.000369925055308764,0.485939911903543,0.204875861938752,0.375,1.00703004404823,0.0637597348849639,0.709836985748058,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00270187700810103,1.14296975860531,0.0959612716462545,0.459612716462545,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,1.375,0.1125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 diff --git a/data/sims/globalShockBarriers.csv b/data/sims/globalShockBarriers.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..05dc822db7730f5422ba609a6ef76abd2aa38bfe --- /dev/null +++ b/data/sims/globalShockBarriers.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +Ensemble,Scenario,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,LAND_CHANGE_COST,MARKET_LAMBA,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,SSP_SCENARIO,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,TRANSPORT_COST,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,RCP,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,YIELD_DIR_TOP,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO +shocksBarriers/noShockNoTax,s1,1,0.02,1,1,1.6,1,0.00035,0.5,0.2,0.4,1,0.1,0.7,0.5,1,1,SSP2_v9_130325,0.002,2,0.2,1,rcp45,FALSE,FALSE,1,0.1,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockNoTax,s2,1.08270938702243,0.0187532681030967,1.05,0.9,1.72467318969033,0.9,0.000392014778383574,0.491729061297757,0.189688362297416,0.45,0.995864530648878,0.12174185522096,0.679221135051611,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00158753449189663,2.17000867009709,0.182999132990291,1.17000867009709,rcp45,FALSE,FALSE,1.25,0.125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockNoTax,s3,0.91729061297757,0.0212467318969033,0.95,1.1,1.47532681030967,1.1,0.000307985221616426,0.508270938702243,0.210311637702584,0.35,1.00413546935112,0.0782581447790401,0.720778864948389,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00241246550810337,1.82999132990291,0.217000867009709,0.829991329902914,rcp45,FALSE,FALSE,0.75,0.075,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockNoTax,s4,0.960874657414893,0.0194097808551165,1.025,0.85,1.81153483560056,1.15,0.000279015531982238,0.503912534258511,0.182453074797474,0.475,0.998043732870745,0.110368611745326,0.664744194066573,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00180496552244993,1.91922543292509,0.228593951721061,1.28593951721061,rcp45,FALSE,FALSE,0.875,0.0625,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockNoTax,s5,1.14060088096457,0.0221153483560056,0.925,1.05,1.54097808551165,0.95,0.000369925055308764,0.485939911903543,0.204875861938752,0.375,1.00703004404823,0.0637597348849639,0.709836985748058,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00270187700810103,2.28593951721061,0.191922543292509,0.91922543292509,rcp45,FALSE,FALSE,1.375,0.1125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockNoTax,s1,1,0.02,1,1,1.6,1,0.00035,0.5,0.2,0.4,1,0.1,0.7,0.5,1,1,SSP2_v9_130325,0.002,2,0.2,1,rcp45,TRUE,FALSE,1,0.1,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockNoTax,s2,1.08270938702243,0.0187532681030967,1.05,0.9,1.72467318969033,0.9,0.000392014778383574,0.491729061297757,0.189688362297416,0.45,0.995864530648878,0.12174185522096,0.679221135051611,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00158753449189663,2.17000867009709,0.182999132990291,1.17000867009709,rcp45,TRUE,FALSE,1.25,0.125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockNoTax,s3,0.91729061297757,0.0212467318969033,0.95,1.1,1.47532681030967,1.1,0.000307985221616426,0.508270938702243,0.210311637702584,0.35,1.00413546935112,0.0782581447790401,0.720778864948389,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00241246550810337,1.82999132990291,0.217000867009709,0.829991329902914,rcp45,TRUE,FALSE,0.75,0.075,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockNoTax,s4,0.960874657414893,0.0194097808551165,1.025,0.85,1.81153483560056,1.15,0.000279015531982238,0.503912534258511,0.182453074797474,0.475,0.998043732870745,0.110368611745326,0.664744194066573,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00180496552244993,1.91922543292509,0.228593951721061,1.28593951721061,rcp45,TRUE,FALSE,0.875,0.0625,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockNoTax,s5,1.14060088096457,0.0221153483560056,0.925,1.05,1.54097808551165,0.95,0.000369925055308764,0.485939911903543,0.204875861938752,0.375,1.00703004404823,0.0637597348849639,0.709836985748058,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00270187700810103,2.28593951721061,0.191922543292509,0.91922543292509,rcp45,TRUE,FALSE,1.375,0.1125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockWithTax,s1,1,0.02,1,1,1.6,1,0.00035,0.5,0.2,0.4,1,0.1,0.7,0.5,1,1,SSP2_v9_130325,0.002,2,0.2,1,rcp45,FALSE,TRUE,1,0.1,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockWithTax,s2,1.08270938702243,0.0187532681030967,1.05,0.9,1.72467318969033,0.9,0.000392014778383574,0.491729061297757,0.189688362297416,0.45,0.995864530648878,0.12174185522096,0.679221135051611,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00158753449189663,2.17000867009709,0.182999132990291,1.17000867009709,rcp45,FALSE,TRUE,1.25,0.125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockWithTax,s3,0.91729061297757,0.0212467318969033,0.95,1.1,1.47532681030967,1.1,0.000307985221616426,0.508270938702243,0.210311637702584,0.35,1.00413546935112,0.0782581447790401,0.720778864948389,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00241246550810337,1.82999132990291,0.217000867009709,0.829991329902914,rcp45,FALSE,TRUE,0.75,0.075,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockWithTax,s4,0.960874657414893,0.0194097808551165,1.025,0.85,1.81153483560056,1.15,0.000279015531982238,0.503912534258511,0.182453074797474,0.475,0.998043732870745,0.110368611745326,0.664744194066573,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00180496552244993,1.91922543292509,0.228593951721061,1.28593951721061,rcp45,FALSE,TRUE,0.875,0.0625,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/noShockWithTax,s5,1.14060088096457,0.0221153483560056,0.925,1.05,1.54097808551165,0.95,0.000369925055308764,0.485939911903543,0.204875861938752,0.375,1.00703004404823,0.0637597348849639,0.709836985748058,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00270187700810103,2.28593951721061,0.191922543292509,0.91922543292509,rcp45,FALSE,TRUE,1.375,0.1125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockWithTax,s1,1,0.02,1,1,1.6,1,0.00035,0.5,0.2,0.4,1,0.1,0.7,0.5,1,1,SSP2_v9_130325,0.002,2,0.2,1,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,1,0.1,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockWithTax,s2,1.08270938702243,0.0187532681030967,1.05,0.9,1.72467318969033,0.9,0.000392014778383574,0.491729061297757,0.189688362297416,0.45,0.995864530648878,0.12174185522096,0.679221135051611,0.55,0.95,1.05,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00158753449189663,2.17000867009709,0.182999132990291,1.17000867009709,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,1.25,0.125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockWithTax,s3,0.91729061297757,0.0212467318969033,0.95,1.1,1.47532681030967,1.1,0.000307985221616426,0.508270938702243,0.210311637702584,0.35,1.00413546935112,0.0782581447790401,0.720778864948389,0.45,1.05,0.95,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00241246550810337,1.82999132990291,0.217000867009709,0.829991329902914,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,0.75,0.075,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockWithTax,s4,0.960874657414893,0.0194097808551165,1.025,0.85,1.81153483560056,1.15,0.000279015531982238,0.503912534258511,0.182453074797474,0.475,0.998043732870745,0.110368611745326,0.664744194066573,0.475,1.025,0.925,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00180496552244993,1.91922543292509,0.228593951721061,1.28593951721061,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,0.875,0.0625,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 +shocksBarriers/withShockWithTax,s5,1.14060088096457,0.0221153483560056,0.925,1.05,1.54097808551165,0.95,0.000369925055308764,0.485939911903543,0.204875861938752,0.375,1.00703004404823,0.0637597348849639,0.709836985748058,0.575,0.925,1.025,SSP2_v9_130325,0.00270187700810103,2.28593951721061,0.191922543292509,0.91922543292509,rcp45,TRUE,TRUE,1.375,0.1125,rcp45,SSP2_RCP45 diff --git a/data/sims/globalShock_params.csv b/data/sims/globalShock_params.csv index 0203862bdbb8a4da2698ff8d4626cb886f35d5a2..4ce316e704da6ee4f65433a9d3b86f2d24018862 100644 --- a/data/sims/globalShock_params.csv +++ b/data/sims/globalShock_params.csv @@ -1,32 +1,32 @@ Ensemble,pname,dist,xmin,xmax,x05,xmode,x95,value -noShocksNoTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, -noShocksNoTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, -noShocksNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, -noShocksNoTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, -noShocksNoTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, -noShocksNoTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, -noShocksNoTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, -noShocksNoTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, -noShocksNoTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, -noShocksNoTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, -noShocksNoTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, -noShocksNoTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, -noShocksNoTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, -noShocksNoTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, -noShocksNoTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, -noShocksNoTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, -noShocksNoTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 -noShocksNoTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, -noShocksNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, -noShocksNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.06, -noShocksNoTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 -noShocksNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 -noShocksNoTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 -noShocksNoTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,FALSE -noShocksNoTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,FALSE -noShocksNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, -noShocksNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, -noShocksNoTax,PRICE_CALCULATION,value,,,,,,weightedExportOrProductionCosts +noShockNoTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, +noShockNoTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, +noShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockNoTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, +noShockNoTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockNoTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, +noShockNoTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, +noShockNoTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, +noShockNoTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, +noShockNoTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, +noShockNoTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, +noShockNoTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, +noShockNoTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 +noShockNoTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, +noShockNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0.5,1.5,0.8,1,1.2, +noShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.05,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.12, +noShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,1,0.3,0.5,0.7, +noShockNoTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 +noShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockNoTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockNoTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,FALSE +noShockNoTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,FALSE +noShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, +noShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, withShockNoTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, withShockNoTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, withShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, @@ -45,8 +45,9 @@ withShockNoTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, withShockNoTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, withShockNoTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 withShockNoTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, -withShockNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, -withShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.06, +withShockNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0.5,1.5,0.8,1,1.2, +withShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.05,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.12, +withShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,1,0.3,0.5,0.7, withShockNoTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 withShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 withShockNoTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 @@ -54,7 +55,6 @@ withShockNoTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE withShockNoTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,FALSE withShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, withShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, -withShockNoTax,PRICE_CALCULATION,value,,,,,,weightedExportOrProductionCosts noShockWithTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, noShockWithTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, noShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, @@ -73,8 +73,9 @@ noShockWithTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, noShockWithTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, noShockWithTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 noShockWithTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, -noShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, -noShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.06, +noShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0.5,1.5,0.8,1,1.2, +noShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.05,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.12, +noShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,1,0.3,0.5,0.7, noShockWithTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 noShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 noShockWithTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 @@ -82,7 +83,6 @@ noShockWithTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,FALSE noShockWithTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,TRUE noShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, noShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, -noShockWithTax,PRICE_CALCULATION,value,,,,,,weightedExportOrProductionCosts withShockWithTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, withShockWithTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, withShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, @@ -101,13 +101,13 @@ withShockWithTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, withShockWithTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, withShockWithTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 withShockWithTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, -withShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, -withShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.06, +withShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,0.5,1.5,0.8,1,1.2, +withShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.05,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.12, +withShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,1,0.3,0.5,0.7, withShockWithTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 withShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 withShockWithTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 withShockWithTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE withShockWithTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,TRUE withShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, -withShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, -withShockWithTax,PRICE_CALCULATION,value,,,,,,weightedExportOrProductionCosts \ No newline at end of file +withShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/sims/globalShock_paramsBarriers.csv b/data/sims/globalShock_paramsBarriers.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..df6d4c07cdc69244ea2ac1b8709a2f816f47232b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/sims/globalShock_paramsBarriers.csv @@ -0,0 +1,113 @@ +Ensemble,pname,dist,xmin,xmax,x05,xmode,x95,value +noShockNoTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, +noShockNoTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, +noShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockNoTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, +noShockNoTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockNoTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, +noShockNoTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, +noShockNoTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, +noShockNoTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, +noShockNoTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, +noShockNoTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, +noShockNoTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, +noShockNoTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockNoTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 +noShockNoTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, +noShockNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,1,3,1.6,2,2.4, +noShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.24, +noShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,2,0.6,1,1.4, +noShockNoTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 +noShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockNoTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockNoTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,FALSE +noShockNoTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,FALSE +noShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, +noShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, +withShockNoTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, +withShockNoTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, +withShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockNoTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +withShockNoTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, +withShockNoTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +withShockNoTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, +withShockNoTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, +withShockNoTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, +withShockNoTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, +withShockNoTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, +withShockNoTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, +withShockNoTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, +withShockNoTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, +withShockNoTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockNoTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockNoTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 +withShockNoTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, +withShockNoTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,1,3,1.6,2,2.4, +withShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.24, +withShockNoTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,2,0.6,1,1.4, +withShockNoTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 +withShockNoTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 +withShockNoTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 +withShockNoTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE +withShockNoTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,FALSE +withShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, +withShockNoTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, +noShockWithTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, +noShockWithTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, +noShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockWithTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockWithTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, +noShockWithTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +noShockWithTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, +noShockWithTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, +noShockWithTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, +noShockWithTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, +noShockWithTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, +noShockWithTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, +noShockWithTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, +noShockWithTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, +noShockWithTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockWithTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +noShockWithTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 +noShockWithTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, +noShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,1,3,1.6,2,2.4, +noShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.24, +noShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,2,0.6,1,1.4, +noShockWithTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 +noShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockWithTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 +noShockWithTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,FALSE +noShockWithTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,TRUE +noShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, +noShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, +withShockWithTax,AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR,beta,0,2,0.8,1,1.2, +withShockWithTax,ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE,beta,0.008,0.032,0.017,0.02,0.023, +withShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SHIFT,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockWithTax,CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +withShockWithTax,FERTILISER_COST_PER_T,beta,0.4,2.8,1.3,1.6,1.9, +withShockWithTax,INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT,unif,0.8,1.2,,,, +withShockWithTax,IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR,beta,0.00005,0.00065,0.00025,0.00035,0.00045, +withShockWithTax,IRRIGATION_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.4,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52, +withShockWithTax,LAND_CHANGE_COST,beta,0.05,0.35,0.175,0.2,0.225, +withShockWithTax,MARKET_LAMBA,unif,0.3,0.5,,,, +withShockWithTax,MEAT_EFFICIENCY,beta,0.95,1.05,0.99,1,1.01, +withShockWithTax,MIN_NATURAL_RATE,beta,0,0.2,0.05,0.1,0.15, +withShockWithTax,OTHER_INTENSITY_COST,beta,0.5,0.9,0.65,0.7,0.75, +withShockWithTax,PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION,unif,0.4,0.6,,,, +withShockWithTax,SSP_GDP_PC_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockWithTax,SSP_POPULATION_FACTOR,unif,0.9,1.1,,,, +withShockWithTax,SSP_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,SSP2_v9_130325 +withShockWithTax,TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE,beta,-0.004,0.008,0.001,0.002,0.003, +withShockWithTax,TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER,beta,1,3,1.6,2,2.4, +withShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_COST,beta,0.1,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.24, +withShockWithTax,TRANSPORT_LOSSES,beta,0,2,0.6,1,1.4, +withShockWithTax,RCP,value,,,,,,rcp45 +withShockWithTax,BIOENERGY_DEMAND_SCENARIO,value,,,,,,ssp2 +withShockWithTax,YIELD_DIR_TOP,value,,,,,,ssp2 +withShockWithTax,SHOCKS_POSSIBLE,value,,,,,,TRUE +withShockWithTax,APPLY_EXPORT_TAXES,value,,,,,,TRUE +withShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_RATE,unif,0.5,1.5,,,, +withShockWithTax,EXPORT_TAX_THRESHOLD,unif,0.05,0.15,,,, \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java index 0ef9cab2dccf0724af9b7854ecea402f54853b6d..47951cdcf3525260d86e557fb00b5a721a419f7e 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java @@ -305,7 +305,7 @@ public class ModelMain { private void writeDomesticProductionFile(Timestep timestep) { try { - StringBuffer sbHeadings = new StringBuffer("Year, Country, Crop, Area, Production, Production_cost, Import_price, Export_price, Net_imports, Net_import_cost, Prod_shock, Rum_feed_amount, Mon_feed_amount"); + StringBuffer sbHeadings = new StringBuffer("Year, Country, Crop, Area, Production, Production_cost, Import_price, Export_price, Consumer_price, Net_imports, Net_import_cost, Prod_shock, Rum_feed_amount, Mon_feed_amount"); BufferedWriter outputFile = FileWriterHelper.getFileWriter(timestep, ModelConfig.DOMESTIC_OUTPUT_FILE, sbHeadings.toString()); for (CropType crop : CropType.getAllItems()) { @@ -326,6 +326,7 @@ public class ModelMain { double importPrice = 0; double exportPrice = 0 ; + double consumerPrice = 0; double netImports = 0; double netImportCost = 0; @@ -333,13 +334,14 @@ public class ModelMain { CountryPrice px = country.getCurrentCountryPrices().get(crop); importPrice = px.getImportPrice(); exportPrice = px.getExportPrice(); + consumerPrice = px.getConsumerPrice(); netImports = cropUsage.getNetImportsExpected(); //this isn't accounting for transport losses in exports netImportCost = cropUsage.getNetImportCostExpected(); } StringBuffer sbData = new StringBuffer(); sbData.append(String.format("%d,%s,%s", timestep.getYear(), country.getCountry(), crop.getGamsName())); - sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f,%.3f", area, prod, prodCosts, importPrice, exportPrice, netImports, netImportCost, prodShock, rumFeedAmount, monFeedAmount)); + sbData.append(String.format(",%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f", area, prod, prodCosts, importPrice, exportPrice, consumerPrice, netImports, netImportCost, prodShock, rumFeedAmount, monFeedAmount)); outputFile.write(sbData.toString()); outputFile.newLine();