diff --git a/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms b/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
old mode 100644
new mode 100755
index ca1a406f9906b5924b57abf69527a2514d87f80c..9d62dd08e2e6a67fa59ee9abce4383e66845ed09
--- a/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
+++ b/GAMS/elasticDemand.gms
@@ -31,14 +31,16 @@ POSITIVE VARIABLE
PARAMETER
p(i) Price,
m GDP per capita
+ maxIncomePropFoodSpend Maximum proportion of income spent on food,
+ desiredConsumpFactor Affordable consumption used when below minimum subsistence level
;
$gdxin %gdx_prices_and_gdp%
*$gdxin "../../GAMS/PricesAndGdp.gdx"
-$load p=price, m=gdp_pc, previousU, previousSubs, previousDisc
+$load maxIncomePropFoodSpend, p=price, m=gdp_pc, previousU, previousSubs, previousDisc
$gdxin
-display p, m, alpha, beta, kappa, delta, tau, omega;
+display maxIncomePropFoodSpend, p, m, alpha, beta, kappa, delta, tau, omega;
w.up(j) = 1;
@@ -72,23 +74,27 @@ model MAIDADS_Sim "MAIDADS model for simulation" /
MAIDADS_Sim.optfile = 1;
option cns=path;
-u = previousU;
-SubsistenceC(i) = previousSubs(i);
-DiscretionaryC(i) = previousDisc(i);
-DiscretionaryC.LO(i) = 1E-11;
-SubsistenceC.LO(j) = 0;
-w(j) = (SubsistenceC(j)+DiscretionaryC(j))*p(j)/m;
-
-display u.l, DiscretionaryC.l, SubsistenceC.l;
-
-solve MAIDADS_Sim using cns;
+desiredConsumpFactor = m * maxIncomePropFoodSpend / sum(i, p(i)*delta(i));
+display desiredConsumpFactor;
Scalar ms 'model status', ss 'solve status';
-ms=MAIDADS_Sim.modelstat;
-ss=MAIDADS_Sim.solvestat;
-
-display DiscretionaryC.l, u.l;
-
-*parameter disc(i);
-*disc(i) = [m-sum(j,p(j)*SubsistenceC(j))];
-*display disc;
+u = previousU;
+
+If (desiredConsumpFactor > 1.0,
+ SubsistenceC(i) = previousSubs(i);
+ DiscretionaryC(i) = previousDisc(i);
+ DiscretionaryC.LO(i) = 1E-11;
+ SubsistenceC.LO(j) = 0;
+ w(j) = (SubsistenceC(j)+DiscretionaryC(j))*p(j)/m;
+ desiredConsumpFactor = 1;
+
+ solve MAIDADS_Sim using cns;
+
+ ms=MAIDADS_Sim.modelstat;
+ ss=MAIDADS_Sim.solvestat;
+
+else
+ SubsistenceC(i) = delta(i) * desiredConsumpFactor;
+);
+
+display SubsistenceC.l, DiscretionaryC.l;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
old mode 100644
new mode 100755
index 3f5a651068ae9672953bd23015e858e3e692e745..00c0c10288b2bd88c9b03c5d25d53fb4e4570d03
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -190,8 +190,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_RICE = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_RICE", 0.972);
public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_OILCROPS = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_OILCROPS", 0.578);
public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_PULSES = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_PULSES", 0.686);
- public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_STARCHY_ROOTS = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_STARCHY_ROOTS", 3.526);
- public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_FRUITVEG", 4.560);
+ public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_STARCHY_ROOTS = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_STARCHY_ROOTS",4.560);
+ public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_FRUITVEG",3.526);
public static final double CALIB_FACTOR_SUGAR = getDoubleProperty("CALIB_FACTOR_SUGAR", 11.909);
// These are production prices in PLUM style feed equivalent terms
@@ -289,6 +289,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_DEMAND_FRACT_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_DEMAND_FRACT_CHANGE", 0.0);
public static final boolean LIMIT_DEMAND_FRACTION = getBooleanProperty("LIMIT_DEMAND_FRACTION", true);
public static final int DEMAND_FRACT_CHANGE_START_STEP = getIntProperty("DEMAND_FRACT_CHANGE_START_STEP", 0);
+ public static final double MAX_INCOME_PROPORTION_FOOD_SPEND = getDoubleProperty("MAX_INCOME_PROPORTION_FOOD_SPEND", 0.7);
public static final double PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION", 0.5);
public static final double ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_OTHER_SOURCES_RATE = getDoubleProperty("ANIMAL_FEED_FROM_OTHER_SOURCES_RATE", 0.127); // animal nutrition coming from sources other crops modelled
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
old mode 100644
new mode 100755
index ef34748595f336a5562fce28fc4969df15e11d82..0ee9ca27fc7fefe2844467e4b1aa83d174851c41
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOptimiser.java
@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
import java.io.File;
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.Collection;
import java.util.HashSet;
import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Vector;
@@ -62,6 +64,9 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
double previousUtility = previousGamsDemands == null ? 0 : previousGamsDemands.getUtility();//-16.3829624069452 + 4.3659621833299 * Math.log10(gdpPc);
LogWriter.println(String.format("previousU = %.5f, estimated = %.5f", previousUtility, -16.3829624069452 + 4.3659621833299 * Math.log10(gdpPc)));
setGamsParamValue(prevUP.addRecord(), previousUtility, 5);
+
+ GAMSParameter maxIncomePropFoodSpendP = inDB.addParameter("maxIncomePropFoodSpend", 0);
+ setGamsParamValue(maxIncomePropFoodSpendP.addRecord(), ModelConfig.MAX_INCOME_PROPORTION_FOOD_SPEND, 4);
LogWriter.println("\nPrice");
GAMSParameter priceP = inDB.addParameter("price", 1);
@@ -104,8 +109,8 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
private GamsDemandOutput handleResults(GAMSDatabase outDB) {
int modelStatus = (int) outDB.getParameter("ms").findRecord().getValue();
String status = GAMSGlobals.ModelStat.lookup(modelStatus).toString();
- LogWriter.println(String.format("\nDemamd %s %d: Modelstatus %s, Solvestatus %s", inputData.getCountry(), inputData.getYear(),
- status, GAMSGlobals.SolveStat.lookup((int) outDB.getParameter("ss").findRecord().getValue()) ));
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("\nDemamd %s: Modelstatus (%d) %s, Solvestatus %s", inputData.getCountry(),
+ modelStatus, status, GAMSGlobals.SolveStat.lookup((int) outDB.getParameter("ss").findRecord().getValue()) ));
GAMSVariable varU = outDB.getVariable("u");
double utility = varU.getFirstRecord().getLevel();
@@ -115,6 +120,7 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
GAMSVariable varDisc = outDB.getVariable("DiscretionaryC");
HashSet<GamsCommodityDemand> demandMap = new HashSet<GamsCommodityDemand>();
+ Collection<CommodityType> unhandledComms = new ArrayList<CommodityType>(CommodityType.getAllFoodItems());
for (GAMSVariableRecord rec : varSubs) {
String commodityName = rec.getKeys()[0];
@@ -124,13 +130,23 @@ public class GamsDemandOptimiser {
LogWriter.println(String.format("Can't find commodity from Gams demand, so ignoring: " + commodityName));
else {
double subsGams = rec.getLevel();
- double discGams = varDisc.findRecord(commodityName).getLevel();
+ double discGams = modelStatus==0 ? 0 : varDisc.findRecord(commodityName).getLevel(); //modelStatus==0 is optimiser not run, i.e. too low GDP
GamsCommodityDemand demand = new GamsCommodityDemand(commodity, subsGams, discGams);
LogWriter.println(demand.toString());
demandMap.add(demand);
+ unhandledComms.remove(commodity);
}
}
- return new GamsDemandOutput(status, demandMap, utility);
+ for (CommodityType commodity : unhandledComms) {
+ LogWriter.println(commodity + " not found in Gams output so adding with zero demand");
+ demandMap.add(new GamsCommodityDemand(commodity, 0, 0));
+ }
+
+ GAMSParameter parConsumpFact = outDB.getParameter("desiredConsumpFactor");
+ double desiredConsumpFactor = parConsumpFact.getFirstRecord().getValue();
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("desiredConsumpFactor=%.4f", desiredConsumpFactor));
+
+ return new GamsDemandOutput(status, demandMap, utility, desiredConsumpFactor);
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
index 9fb461082b8bf15a80a68c1d11e450fedb4ff661..450e9866c8f926fe5b08d5c04888561e6bd1664c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsDemandOutput.java
@@ -11,11 +11,13 @@ public class GamsDemandOutput {
private Collection<GamsCommodityDemand> demands;
private double utility;
+ private double desiredConsumpFactor;
- public GamsDemandOutput(String status, Collection<GamsCommodityDemand> demands, double utility) {
+ public GamsDemandOutput(String status, Collection<GamsCommodityDemand> demands, double utility, double desiredConsumpFactor) {
this.status = status;
this.demands = demands;
this.utility = utility;
+ this.desiredConsumpFactor = desiredConsumpFactor;
}
public Map<CommodityType, Double> getPlumDemands() {
@@ -38,6 +40,9 @@ public class GamsDemandOutput {
public double getUtility() {
return utility;
}
+ public double getHungerFactor() {
+ return 1-desiredConsumpFactor;
+ }
public String getStatus() {
return status;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
old mode 100644
new mode 100755
index e0d466cc8d361ec98d266eb281ef11f40f9e812f..90560a6b48272cf81decfe42a9de79c9290da6b3
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/ElasticDemandManager.java
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ public class ElasticDemandManager extends AbstractSSPDemandManager {
GamsDemandOutput gamsOutput = null;
for (int i = 1; i < 50; ++i) {
gamsOutput = new GamsDemandOptimiser(inputData).getDemandPc();
- if (gamsOutput.getStatus().equals("SOLVED"))
+ if (gamsOutput.getStatus().equals("SOLVED") || gamsOutput.getStatus().equals("UNDEFINED_STAT"))
break;
else {
LogWriter.printlnError(i + ": Problem solving " + c + ", " + year + " got " + gamsOutput.getStatus());
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ public class ElasticDemandManager extends AbstractSSPDemandManager {
for (CommodityType commodity : CommodityType.values())
sbHeader.append(",price_" + commodity.getGamsName());
- sbHeader.append(",status,utility");
+ sbHeader.append(",status,utility,hungerFactor");
for (CommodityType commodity : CommodityType.values())
sbHeader.append(",gamssubs_" + commodity.getGamsName());
@@ -110,7 +110,7 @@ public class ElasticDemandManager extends AbstractSSPDemandManager {
for (CommodityType commodity : CommodityType.values())
sbData.append(String.format(",%.4f", inputData.getPrices().get(commodity)));
- sbData.append(String.format(",%s,%.6f", gamsOutput.getStatus(), gamsOutput.getUtility()));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%s,%.6f,%.6f", gamsOutput.getStatus(), gamsOutput.getUtility(),gamsOutput.getHungerFactor()));
for (CommodityType commodity : CommodityType.values())
sbData.append(String.format(",%.4f", gamsOutput.getGamsDemands(commodity).getSubsistence()));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
index 378878150ba40e0910c61c29bc55df740946e0a6..29ceb084991dd16094cd0c51f5e24efe3c910546 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CommodityType.java
@@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public enum CommodityType {
- CEREALS("Cereals", "cereals", false, new CropType[]{CropType.WHEAT, CropType.MAIZE, CropType.RICE}, new Double[]{0.4, 0.3, 0.3}, 2741847.3, ModelConfig.CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_CEREALS),
- OILCROPSPULSES("OilcropsPulses", "oilcropspulses", false, new CropType[]{CropType.OILCROPS, CropType.PULSES}, new Double[]{0.5, 0.5}, 1864622.3, ModelConfig.OILCROPSPULSES_SUB_PROPORTION, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_OILCROPS_PULSES),
+ CEREALS("Cereals", "cereals", false, new CropType[]{CropType.WHEAT, CropType.MAIZE, CropType.RICE}, new Double[]{0.385, 0.171, 0.444}, 2741847.3, ModelConfig.CEREALS_SUB_PROPORTION, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_CEREALS),
+ OILCROPSPULSES("OilcropsPulses", "oilcropspulses", false, new CropType[]{CropType.OILCROPS, CropType.PULSES}, new Double[]{0.815, 0.185}, 1864622.3, ModelConfig.OILCROPSPULSES_SUB_PROPORTION, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_OILCROPS_PULSES),
STARCHY_ROOTS("Starchy Roots", "starchyRoots", false, new CropType[]{CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS}, new Double[]{1.0}, 819065.4, ModelConfig.STARCHY_ROOTS_SUB_PROPORTION, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_STARCHYROOTS),
MONOGASTRICS("Monogastrics", "monogastrics", true, new CropType[]{CropType.MONOGASTRICS}, new Double[]{1.0}, 455874.3, Double.NaN, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_MONOGASTRICS),
RUMINANTS("Ruminants", "ruminants", true, new CropType[]{CropType.RUMINANTS}, new Double[]{1.0}, 236969.8, Double.NaN, ModelConfig.INITAL_DEMAND_PRICE_RUMINANTS),