From c997e73fcbba19ef11446474f9d9687d74ee5683 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 20:19:30 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Corrections to GAMS energy calc
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 18 +++++----
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 2 +-
.../lurg/country/CompositeCountryManager.java | 2 +-
.../country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java | 10 ++++-
src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java | 2 +-
src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java | 38 +++++++++----------
6 files changed, 41 insertions(+), 31 deletions(-)
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 750f4a0e..db113c5c 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ $gdxin
oilcrops 0.7
pulses 0.5
starchyRoots 4.0
- pasture 0.1 / ;
+ pasture 0.0 / ;
VARIABLES
area(crop, location) total area for each crop - Mha
@@ -163,12 +163,16 @@ $gdxin
PASTURE_INCREASE_CONV_CALC(location) .. pastureIncrease(location) =G= area('pasture', location) - previousArea('pasture', location);
PASTURE_DECREASE_CONV_CALC(location) .. pastureDecrease(location) =G= -(area('pasture', location) - previousArea('pasture', location));
- ENERGY_EQ .. energy =E= (SUM((crop, location), area(crop, location) * unitEnergy(crop, location))
- + (sum(location, agriLandExpansion(location)) * landChangeEnergy)
- + (sum(location, (0.2 * SQR((cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) / suitableLandArea(location)) + (cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) * 0.1) * (cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) * landChangeEnergy))
- + (sum(location, (0.2 * SQR((pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) / suitableLandArea(location)) + (pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) * 0.1) * (pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) * landChangeEnergy))
- + sum(import_crop, (importAmount(import_crop)) * worldImportPrices(import_crop))
- - sum(import_crop, (exportAmount(import_crop)) * worldExportPrices(import_crop))) / 1000000;
+ ENERGY_EQ .. energy =E=
+ (
+ SUM((crop, location), area(crop, location) * unitEnergy(crop, location)) +
+ sum(location, agriLandExpansion(location) * landChangeEnergy) +
+ sum(location, (SQR(cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) / (suitableLandArea(location) * 0.01 + sum(crop_less_pasture, previousArea(crop_less_pasture, location)))
+ + (cropIncrease(location) + cropDecrease(location)) * 0.1) * landChangeEnergy) +
+ sum(location, (SQR(pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) / (suitableLandArea(location) * 0.01 + previousArea('pasture', location))
+ + (pastureIncrease(location) + pastureDecrease(location)) * 0.1) * landChangeEnergy) +
+ sum(import_crop, importAmount(import_crop) * worldImportPrices(import_crop) - exportAmount(import_crop) * worldExportPrices(import_crop))
+ ) / 1000000;
MODEL LAND_USE /ALL/ ;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 8c6085b0..c507777c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT = getDoubleProperty("POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT", 40.0); // in millions, smaller countries are aggregated on a regional basis
public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 2.0);
- public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_MAX_COST", 1.0);
+ public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_MAX_COST", 2.5);
public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.15); // in international trade
public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR", 1.2); // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CompositeCountryManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CompositeCountryManager.java
index 34a46119..64352124 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CompositeCountryManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CompositeCountryManager.java
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ public class CompositeCountryManager {
private void populate(BaseConsumpManager baseConsumpManager) {
mapFromSingleCountry = new HashMap<SingleCountry, CompositeCountry>();
- HashSet<String> countryExclusionList = new HashSet<String>(Arrays.asList("Bangladesh", "Portugal", "Haiti"));
+ HashSet<String> countryExclusionList = new HashSet<String>(Arrays.asList("Bangladesh", "Portugal", "Haiti", "Democratic Republic of the Congo"));
for (SingleCountry c : baseConsumpManager.getAllCountries()) {
CompositeCountry cc;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
index c03b8ade..06ee659b 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLocationOptimiser.java
@@ -170,10 +170,16 @@ public class GamsLocationOptimiser {
LogWriter.println("\nImport-export, min net imports, max net imports, import price, export price");
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
ImportExportConstraint iec = countryInput.getImportConstraints().get(crop);
- GlobalPrice gp = countryInput.getWorldPrices().get(crop);
+ double minNetImport = 0, maxNetImport = 0;
+ if (iec != null) {
+ minNetImport = iec.getMinNetImport();
+ maxNetImport = iec.getMaxNetImport();
+ }
+ GlobalPrice gp = countryInput.getWorldPrices().get(crop);
+
LogWriter.println(String.format(" %15s, \t %5.1f, \t %5.1f, \t %5.3f, \t %5.3f",
- crop.getGamsName(), iec.getMinNetImport(), iec.getMaxNetImport(), gp.getImportPrice(), gp.getExportPrice()));
+ crop.getGamsName(), minNetImport, maxNetImport, gp.getImportPrice(), gp.getExportPrice()));
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java
index 8af8c4c7..e79d7123 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ public class BaseConsumpManager {
if (commodityMap == null || !commodityMap.containsKey(commodity)) {
LogWriter.printlnError("BaseConsumpManager: can't get value for " + commodity + ", " + country);
- return Double.NaN;
+ return 0.0;
}
Double d = commodityMap.get(commodity);
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
index e666003d..4e6c8316 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ public class DemandManager {
private BaseConsumpManager baseConsumpManager;
private CompositeCountryManager compositeCountryManager;
private Map<SingleCountry, Map<CommodityType, Double>> bioenergyBaseDemand;
-
+
private ModelFitType fitType;
private String ssp_scenario;
@@ -31,46 +31,46 @@ public class DemandManager {
sspManager = new SspManager();
bioenergyBaseDemand = new BioenergyDemand().getBioenergyData();
}
-
+
public Map<CommodityType, Double> getDemand(CompositeCountry cc, int year) {
-
+
if (ModelConfig.KEEP_DEMAND_FIXED)
year = ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR;
-
+
Map<CommodityType, Double> demandMap = new HashMap<CommodityType, Double>();
for (SingleCountry c : compositeCountryManager.getAllForCompositeCountry(cc)) {
- SspData baseSspData = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR, c);
-
+ SspData baseSspData = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR, c);
+
SspData sd = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, year, c);
-
+
LogWriter.println("Got ssp data for " + c.getCountryName() + " of " + sd);
-
+
if (sd == null) {
LogWriter.printlnError("No ssp data for " + ssp_scenario + ", " + year + ", " + c.getCountryName());
continue;
}
-
+
for (DemandCurve dc : demandCurveManager.get(fitType)) {
double cpc = dc.getConsumptionPc(baseSspData.getGdpPc(), baseConsumpManager.get(c, dc.getCommodityType()), sd.getGdpPc());
double d = cpc * sd.getPopulation();
-
+
double bioenergy = getBioenergyDemand(c, year, dc.getCommodityType());
- // LogWriter.println(String.format("Country %s comm %s: %f", country, dc.getCommodityType(), bioenergy));
-
+ // LogWriter.println(String.format("Country %s comm %s: %f", country, dc.getCommodityType(), bioenergy));
+
double newDemand = (d + bioenergy) * (1.0 + ModelConfig.SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION);
Double prevDemand = demandMap.get(dc.getCommodityType());
-
+
if (prevDemand != null)
newDemand += prevDemand.doubleValue(); // aggregate if composite country
-
+
demandMap.put(dc.getCommodityType(), newDemand);
}
}
-
+
return demandMap;
}
-
+
private double getBioenergyDemand(SingleCountry country, int year, CommodityType commodity) {
// could adjust for year somehow, but not doing this yet
if (bioenergyBaseDemand != null && bioenergyBaseDemand.containsKey(country)) {
@@ -79,8 +79,8 @@ public class DemandManager {
}
return 0.0;
}
-
-/* public double getPopulation (SingleCountry country, int year) {
+
+ /* public double getPopulation (SingleCountry country, int year) {
SspData sd = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, year, country);
if (sd == null) {
LogWriter.printlnError("No ssp data for " + ssp_scenario + ", " + year + ", " + country.getCountryName());
@@ -93,5 +93,5 @@ public class DemandManager {
public String getModelAndScenarioDescription() {
return fitType + " " + ssp_scenario;
}
- */
+ */
}
--
GitLab