diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 270d9af129a59e812b81d39ad7630c7308bfb2f9..a0dc812fb8f727c7042d574d75f4acb4b0791a38 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -91,6 +91,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final String SSP_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "ssp.csv";
public static final String COUNTRY_DATA_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "country_data.csv";
public static final String REF_YIELD_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "ref_yields.csv";
+ public static final String BASELINE_CONSUMP_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "base_consump.csv";
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index 86e2870b1f15ed500d629dbb109fa8324455e853..3b15f13e6ec015c7379a70cfc240b3ab768c5415 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -10,9 +10,6 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsLandUseOptimiser;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
-/*
- * Contains data for a country (perhaps a entire timeseries?!)
- */
public class CountryAgent implements GamsInputData {
private ModelContext modelContext;
@@ -24,7 +21,7 @@ public class CountryAgent implements GamsInputData {
private int currentTimestep;
private Map<CropType, Double> currentProjectedDemand;
private Map<CropType, Double> currentRefYield;
-
+
public CountryAgent(ModelContext modelContext, Country country, CropAreas initialCropAreas, LandCoverAreas initialLandCover) {
this.modelContext = modelContext;
this.country = country;
@@ -128,7 +125,7 @@ public class CountryAgent implements GamsInputData {
@Override
public double getMaxIntensity() {
- return 8.0;
+ return 9.0;
}
@Override
@@ -145,4 +142,4 @@ public class CountryAgent implements GamsInputData {
public double getMinFeedRate() {
return 0.15;
}
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/LandUseData.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/LandUseData.java
index 5fdcd1c86b4ab36f82864018921fae98bf7d924d..4e4e10858da48f00f77db54d3a9c8c39b0664a47 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/LandUseData.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/LandUseData.java
@@ -1,7 +1,5 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.country;
-import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
-
public class LandUseData {
private double area;
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLandUseOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLandUseOptimiser.java
index 3094fdda814d62331656fd3df5647301da759999..17d551c9d04784b675b4abba99f82b834d35b11c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLandUseOptimiser.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsLandUseOptimiser.java
@@ -1,12 +1,10 @@
package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams;
import java.io.File;
-import java.util.Collection;
import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CropAreas;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.LandUseData;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
@@ -111,7 +109,7 @@ public class GamsLandUseOptimiser {
private void addItemMapParm(GAMSParameter parm, Map<CropType, Double> itemMap) {
for (Map.Entry<CropType, Double> entry : itemMap.entrySet()) {
- LogWriter.println(" " + entry.getKey().getGamsName() + ",\t\t" + entry.getValue());
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(" %15s,\t %.1f", entry.getKey().getGamsName(), entry.getValue()));
parm.addRecord(entry.getKey().getGamsName()).setValue(entry.getValue());
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..91b8aa82173f70650c59482b80595e0001c5a099
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/BaseConsumpManager.java
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.demand;
+
+import java.io.BufferedReader;
+import java.io.FileReader;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.Country;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CountryCropKey;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+
+public class BaseConsumpManager {
+ private static final int COUNTRY_COL = 0;
+ private static final int CROP_COL = 3;
+ private static final int BASE_CPC_COL = 8;
+
+ private Map<CountryCropKey, Double> baseConsumpMap = new HashMap<CountryCropKey, Double>();
+
+ public BaseConsumpManager() {
+ super();
+ read();
+ }
+
+ public void read() {
+ String filename = ModelConfig.BASELINE_CONSUMP_FILE;
+ try {
+ BufferedReader fitReader = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(filename));
+ String line, countryName, cropName;
+ double cpc;
+ fitReader.readLine(); // read header
+
+ while ((line=fitReader.readLine()) != null) {
+ String[] tokens = line.split(",");
+
+ if (tokens.length < 9)
+ LogWriter.printlnError("Too few columns in " + filename + ", " + line);
+
+ countryName = tokens[COUNTRY_COL];
+ cropName = tokens[CROP_COL];
+ cpc = Double.parseDouble(tokens[BASE_CPC_COL]);
+
+ baseConsumpMap.put(new CountryCropKey(Country.get(countryName), CropType.getForFaoName(cropName)), cpc);
+ }
+ fitReader.close();
+
+ } catch (Exception e) {
+ LogWriter.printlnError("Failed in reading commodity demand fits");
+ e.printStackTrace();
+ }
+ LogWriter.println("Processed " + filename + ", create " + baseConsumpMap.size() + " base consumption values");
+ }
+
+ public double get(Country country, CropType crop) {
+ return baseConsumpMap.get(new CountryCropKey(country, crop));
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
index fe7ebd7adf2349318e715c194a4315e12d51ff87..0af0d37adf4609f9afd41518a6a5094c3482fba3 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandCurve.java
@@ -10,11 +10,11 @@ public class DemandCurve {
private double b;
private double c;
private ModelFitType fitType;
- private CropType item;
+ private CropType cropType;
DemandCurve(CropType item, double a, double b, double c, ModelFitType fitType) {
super();
- this.item = item;
+ this.cropType = item;
this.a = a;
this.b = b;
this.c = c;
@@ -37,8 +37,8 @@ public class DemandCurve {
return fitType;
}
- public CropType getItem() {
- return item;
+ public CropType getCropType() {
+ return cropType;
}
@Override
@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ public class DemandCurve {
final int prime = 31;
int result = 1;
result = prime * result + ((fitType == null) ? 0 : fitType.hashCode());
- result = prime * result + ((item == null) ? 0 : item.hashCode());
+ result = prime * result + ((cropType == null) ? 0 : cropType.hashCode());
return result;
}
@@ -64,15 +64,27 @@ public class DemandCurve {
return false;
} else if (!fitType.equals(other.fitType))
return false;
- if (item == null) {
- if (other.item != null)
+ if (cropType == null) {
+ if (other.cropType != null)
return false;
- } else if (!item.equals(other.item))
+ } else if (!cropType.equals(other.cropType))
return false;
return true;
}
-
- public double getConsumptionPc(double gdpPc) {
+
+ private final static double Z = Math.log(0.1)/8;
+
+ public double getConsumptionPc(double baseGdpPc, double baseCpc, double gdpPc) {
+ double baseExpCpc = getProjectConsumptionPc(baseGdpPc);
+ double newExpCpc = getProjectConsumptionPc(gdpPc);
+ double gapRatio = Math.exp((gdpPc-baseGdpPc)/baseGdpPc * Z);
+ if (gapRatio>1) gapRatio = 1;
+
+ double projectedCpc = (newExpCpc+(baseCpc-baseExpCpc)*gapRatio);
+ return projectedCpc;
+ }
+
+ private double getProjectConsumptionPc(double gdpPc) {
if (fitType == ModelFitType.LOGISTIC)
return a/(1+Math.exp((b-gdpPc)/c));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
index b4b264c011856748920dca053d20f1105a17a032..8327196a366bafa841b20a0085aae4ba0b11a0c2 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/demand/DemandManager.java
@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package ac.ed.lurg.demand;
import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.Map;
+import ac.ed.lurg.ModelConfig;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.Country;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.ModelFitType;
@@ -12,6 +13,7 @@ public class DemandManager {
private DemandCurveManager demandCurveManager;
private SspManager sspManager;
+ private BaseConsumpManager baseConsumpManager;
private ModelFitType fitType; // these could be mutable
private String ssp_scenario;
@@ -21,9 +23,12 @@ public class DemandManager {
this.ssp_scenario = ssp_scenario;
demandCurveManager = new DemandCurveManager();
sspManager = new SspManager();
+ baseConsumpManager = new BaseConsumpManager();
}
public Map<CropType, Double> getDemand(Country country, int year) {
+ SspData baseSspData = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, ModelConfig.BASE_YEAR, country);
+
Map<CropType, Double> demandMap = new HashMap<CropType, Double>();
SspData sd = sspManager.get(ssp_scenario, year, country);
@@ -35,9 +40,9 @@ public class DemandManager {
}
for (DemandCurve dc : demandCurveManager.get(fitType)) {
- double cpc = dc.getConsumptionPc(sd.getGdpPc());
+ double cpc = dc.getConsumptionPc(baseSspData.getGdpPc(), baseConsumpManager.get(country, dc.getCropType()), sd.getGdpPc());
double d = cpc * sd.getPopulation();
- demandMap.put(dc.getItem(), d);
+ demandMap.put(dc.getCropType(), d);
}
return demandMap;
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CountryCropKey.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CountryCropKey.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ecb72a39f952c55e31c0aa9da7d17a94d815f4a0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CountryCropKey.java
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg.types;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.Country;
+
+public class CountryCropKey {
+ private Country country;
+ private CropType crop;
+
+ public CountryCropKey(Country country, CropType crop) {
+ super();
+ this.country = country;
+ this.crop = crop;
+ }
+
+ @Override
+ public int hashCode() {
+ final int prime = 31;
+ int result = 1;
+ result = prime * result + ((country == null) ? 0 : country.hashCode());
+ result = prime * result + ((crop == null) ? 0 : crop.hashCode());
+ return result;
+ }
+
+ @Override
+ public boolean equals(Object obj) {
+ if (this == obj)
+ return true;
+ if (obj == null)
+ return false;
+ if (getClass() != obj.getClass())
+ return false;
+ CountryCropKey other = (CountryCropKey) obj;
+ if (country == null) {
+ if (other.country != null)
+ return false;
+ } else if (!country.equals(other.country))
+ return false;
+ if (crop == null) {
+ if (other.crop != null)
+ return false;
+ } else if (!crop.equals(other.crop))
+ return false;
+ return true;
+ }
+
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CropType.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CropType.java
index c2406deed50c411ae747a5050282320186e7d4df..ce1630b6f857b1249f9c58503aae2c939f141b93 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CropType.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/CropType.java
@@ -6,18 +6,16 @@ import java.util.Map;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
-public class CropType {
- private static final Map<String, CropType> faoNameCache = new HashMap<String, CropType>();
- private static final Map<String, CropType> gamsNameCache = new HashMap<String, CropType>();
+public enum CropType {
- public final static CropType MEAT_OR_PASTURE = new CropType("meatmilkeggs", "pasture_or_meat");
- public final static CropType TREENUTS = new CropType("Treenuts + (Total)", "treenuts");
- public final static CropType VEGETABLES = new CropType("Vegetables + (Total)", "vegetables");
- public final static CropType PULSES = new CropType("Pulses + (Total)", "pulses");
- public final static CropType STARCHY_ROOTS = new CropType("Starchy Roots + (Total)", "starchyRoots");
- public final static CropType FRUIT = new CropType("Fruits - Excluding Wine + (Total)", "fruits");
- public final static CropType OILCROPS = new CropType("Oilcrops + (Total)", "oilcrops");
- public final static CropType CEREALS = new CropType("Cereals - Excluding Beer + (Total)", "cereals");
+ MEAT_OR_PASTURE("meatmilkeggs", "pasture_or_meat"),
+ TREENUTS("Treenuts + (Total)", "treenuts"),
+ VEGETABLES("Vegetables + (Total)", "vegetables"),
+ PULSES("Pulses + (Total)", "pulses"),
+ STARCHY_ROOTS("Starchy Roots + (Total)", "starchyRoots"),
+ FRUIT("Fruits - Excluding Wine + (Total)", "fruits"),
+ OILCROPS("Oilcrops + (Total)", "oilcrops"),
+ CEREALS("Cereals - Excluding Beer + (Total)", "cereals");
private String faoName;
private String gamsName;
@@ -25,9 +23,16 @@ public class CropType {
CropType (String faoName, String gamsName) {
this.faoName = faoName;
this.gamsName = gamsName;
- faoNameCache.put(faoName, this);
- gamsNameCache.put(gamsName, this);
}
+
+ private static final Map<String, CropType> faoNameCache = new HashMap<String, CropType>();
+ private static final Map<String, CropType> gamsNameCache = new HashMap<String, CropType>();
+ static {
+ for (CropType c : values()) {
+ faoNameCache.put(c.getFaoName(), c);
+ gamsNameCache.put(c.getGamsName(), c);
+ }
+ }
public static CropType getForFaoName(String faoName) {
return getFromCache(faoNameCache, faoName);