diff --git a/data/sims/rcp_sims.csv b/data/sims/rcp_sims.csv index e7979734db0d2107c605c16a421214acea5346c3..312f9758d1c9fe727a939854cad128d5c9a5f3f3 100644 --- a/data/sims/rcp_sims.csv +++ b/data/sims/rcp_sims.csv @@ -19,6 +19,36 @@ rcp/26,s17,1.09375,0.029375,TRUE,1.40625,2.025,1.34375,0.000265625,0.16875,0.078 rcp/26,s18,1.34375,0.014375,TRUE,0.65625,1.825,0.59375,0.000390625,0.21875,0.103125,0.69375,0.0984375,0.41875,0.0875,0.140625,SSP2_v9_130325,0.0015625,0.403125,0.384375,0.0546875,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp26_ipsl_irrV7104_b20170728_bothDS_irrWaits_forED_20170904130513 rcp/26,s19,0.84375,0.024375,TRUE,1.15625,1.425,1.09375,0.000640625,0.11875,0.053125,0.39375,0.1734375,0.51875,0.0475,0.090625,SSP2_v9_130325,0.0025625,0.253125,0.234375,0.0296875,LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp26_ipsl_irrV7104_b20170728_bothDS_irrWaits_forED_20170904130513 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d73e715188f73ae552aebe75ad29f3862ff8af0e..5f6225900ccaa2d2e7719e9a427182d8447536f7 100644 --- a/debug_config.properties +++ b/debug_config.properties @@ -1,25 +1,22 @@ BASE_DIR=. #YIELD_DIR=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/LURG/LPJ/IPSL/LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp45_ipsl_lessIO_forED -YIELD_DIR=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/LURG/LPJ/12Apr2017/LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp60_ipsl_irrV7104_b20170728_bothDS_irrWaits_forED_20170904131712 +YIELD_DIR=/Users/peteralexander/Documents/LURG/LPJ/runs_20170925/LPJG_PLUM_expt1.2_rcp26_ipsl_irrV7104_b20170728_bothDS_irrWaits_forED_20170925154752 # Properties for testing #CHANGE_YIELD_DATA_YEAR=true #CHANGE_DEMAND_YEAR=false DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES=false -DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=Canada +DEBUG_COUNTRY_NAME=Pakistan & Afghanistan #MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE=0.0 #MARKET_ADJ_PRICE=false -DEBUG_JUST_DEMAND_OUTPUT=true +DEBUG_JUST_DEMAND_OUTPUT=false SSP_SCENARIO=SSP2_v9_130325 IS_CALIBRATION_RUN = false -#LAND_CHANGE_COST=.6 -DIETARY_CLOSURE=0.2 - USE_BIOENERGY_TRAJECTORY=true ENABLE_GEN2_BIOENERGY=true #BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE=0.1111111 @@ -27,7 +24,7 @@ ENABLE_GEN2_BIOENERGY=true #TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR_DEFAULT=0.3 #NUM_YIELD_CLUSTERS=100 -END_TIMESTEP=1 -TIMESTEP_SIZE=90 +END_TIMESTEP=0 +TIMESTEP_SIZE=1 INTERPOLATE_OUTPUT_YEARS = false \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java index ee3f236aaa47d987c72941c60071f9891c83b5ea..47723e89f372e7101389dbef7d81d4bcc52521cc 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java @@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ public class ModelConfig { public static final String COUNTRY_DATA_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "country_data.csv"; public static final String NET_IMPORTS_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "net_imports.csv"; public static final String BIOENERGY_1GEN_BASE_DEMAND_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "bio_demand.csv"; - public static final String BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv"; + public static final String BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILE = getProperty("BIOENERGY_FUTURE_DEMAND_FILE", DATA_DIR + File.separator + "bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv"); public static final String TRADE_BARRIERS_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "tradeBarriers.csv"; public static final String STOCKS_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "global_stocks.csv"; public static final String FAO_CONSUMPTION_FILE = DATA_DIR + File.separator + "fao_consump.csv"; diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java index 21b89ce5e244aa0638cea1114cabe28acdbfff20..7200115bf530337718a1f0a5b4caa6fdead15b32 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/gams/GamsRasterOptimiser.java @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ - package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams; +package ac.ed.lurg.country.gams; import java.util.HashSet; import java.util.Map; @@ -74,6 +74,17 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { LogWriter.printlnError("Total Area " + comment + ": " + l.getName() + ": " + total); } + + if (DEBUG) { + double protectedArea = 0; + double suitableArea = 0; + for (LandUseItem a : areaRaster.values()) { + protectedArea += a.getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural(); + suitableArea += a.getSuitableLand(); + } + LogWriter.println("Total protected " + comment + ": " + protectedArea); + LogWriter.println("Total suitableArea " + comment + ": " + suitableArea); + } } private RasterSet<LandUseItem> allocAreas(Map<Integer, ? extends LandUseItem> prevAreasAgg, GamsLocationOutput gamsOutput) { @@ -94,15 +105,29 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { if (iri != null && locId == iri.getInt()) keys.add(mapEntry.getKey()); } - - if (DEBUG) - checkedTotalAreas(newLandUseRaster.createSubsetForKeys(keys), locId + " before"); double pastureChange = newLandUseAggItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.PASTURE) - prevLandUseAggItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.PASTURE); double croplandChange = newLandUseAggItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND) - prevLandUseAggItem.getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND); - double prevForestToNaturalFraction = prevLandUseAggItem.getForestToNaturalFraction(); - double prevForestManagedFraction = prevLandUseAggItem.getForestManagedFraction(); + RasterSet<LandUseItem> landUseItemsForLocation = newLandUseRaster.createSubsetForKeys(keys); + + if (DEBUG) { + checkedTotalAreas(landUseItemsForLocation, locId + " before"); + LogWriter.println("pastureChange" + pastureChange); + LogWriter.println("croplandChange" + croplandChange); + } + double prevUnprotectedManagedForest = 0, prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest = 0, prevUnprotectedNatural = 0; + + for (LandUseItem luItem: landUseItemsForLocation.values()) { + prevUnprotectedManagedForest += luItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST); + prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest += luItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); + prevUnprotectedNatural += luItem.getUnprotectedNatural(); + } + + double prevForestTotal = prevUnprotectedManagedForest + prevUnprotectedUnmanagedForest; + double prevForestToNaturalFraction = (prevUnprotectedNatural > 0) ? prevForestTotal / prevUnprotectedNatural : 0; + double prevForestManagedFraction = (prevForestTotal > 0) ? prevUnprotectedManagedForest / prevForestTotal : 0; + double pastureFromCrop = 0; double pastureFromNatural = 0; double cropFromNatural = 0; @@ -127,21 +152,22 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { pastureFromNatural = pastureChange; cropFromNatural = croplandChange; } + + if (DEBUG) { + LogWriter.println("pastureFromCrop" + pastureFromCrop); + LogWriter.println("pastureFromNatural" + pastureFromNatural); + LogWriter.println("cropFromNatural" + cropFromNatural); + } + + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST, pastureFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * prevForestManagedFraction, locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST, pastureFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * (1-prevForestManagedFraction), locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL, pastureFromNatural * (1-prevForestToNaturalFraction), locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, pastureFromCrop, locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST, cropFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * prevForestManagedFraction, locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST, cropFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * (1-prevForestManagedFraction), locId); + allocAllLandCropsTop(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL, cropFromNatural * (1-prevForestToNaturalFraction), locId); - double shortfall = 0; - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST, pastureFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * prevForestManagedFraction); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST, pastureFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * (1-prevForestManagedFraction)); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL, pastureFromNatural * (1-prevForestToNaturalFraction)); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.PASTURE, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, pastureFromCrop); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST, cropFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * prevForestManagedFraction); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST, cropFromNatural * prevForestToNaturalFraction * (1-prevForestManagedFraction)); - shortfall += allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, LandCoverType.CROPLAND, LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL, cropFromNatural * (1-prevForestToNaturalFraction)); - - if (shortfall > 0.00001) - LogWriter.printlnError("This should never happen, due to GAMS constraint. Not able to incorporate all changes, as not enough forest or natural areas left: " + locId + ": " + shortfall); - - if (DEBUG) - checkedTotalAreas(newLandUseRaster.createSubsetForKeys(keys), locId + " after"); + if (DEBUG) checkedTotalAreas(landUseItemsForLocation, locId + " after"); for (RasterKey key : keys) { LandUseItem newLandUseItem = newLandUseRaster.get(key); @@ -156,8 +182,8 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { return newLandUseRaster; } - - private double allocAllLandCrops(RasterSet<LandUseItem> newLandUseRaster, Set<RasterKey> keys, LandCoverType toLC, LandCoverType fromLC, double change) { + + private void allocAllLandCropsTop(RasterSet<LandUseItem> newLandUseRaster, Set<RasterKey> keys, LandCoverType toLC, LandCoverType fromLC, double change, Integer locId) { LandCoverType toType = toLC; LandCoverType fromType = fromLC; @@ -167,17 +193,34 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { toType = fromLC; fromType = toLC; } + + double shortfall = allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keys, toType, fromType, change); + + if (shortfall > 0.00001) + LogWriter.printlnError("This should never happen, due to GAMS constraint. Not able to incorporate all changes: from " + fromLC + " to " + toLC + " " + locId + ": " + shortfall); + } + + private double allocAllLandCrops(RasterSet<LandUseItem> newLandUseRaster, Set<RasterKey> keys, LandCoverType toType, LandCoverType fromType, double change) { + if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("allocAllLandCrops: from " + fromType + " to " + toType + " change " + change); + if (change < 0.00001) + return 0; double totalShortfall = 0; Set<RasterKey> keysWithSpace = new HashSet<RasterKey>(); - double avgChange = change/keys.size(); - + double totalUnprotectedLC = 0; + + for (RasterKey key : keys) { + LandUseItem newLandUseItem = newLandUseRaster.get(key); + totalUnprotectedLC += newLandUseItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(fromType); + } + for (RasterKey key : keys) { //if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println(" Processing raster key " + key); LandUseItem newLandUseItem = newLandUseRaster.get(key); - + if (newLandUseItem!=null) { - double shortfall = newLandUseItem.moveAreas(toType, fromType, avgChange); + double cellChange = (fromType.isProtectable() && totalUnprotectedLC > 0) ? change * newLandUseItem.getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(fromType)/totalUnprotectedLC : change / keys.size(); + double shortfall = newLandUseItem.moveAreas(toType, fromType, cellChange); if (shortfall == 0) keysWithSpace.add(key); else @@ -190,6 +233,7 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { totalShortfall = allocAllLandCrops(newLandUseRaster, keysWithSpace, toType, fromType, totalShortfall); } + if (DEBUG) LogWriter.println("allocAllLandCrops: from " + fromType + " to " + toType + " change " + change + " totalShortfall " + totalShortfall); return totalShortfall; } @@ -328,8 +372,8 @@ public class GamsRasterOptimiser { } // Protected areas - double protectedThisTime = landUseItem.getProtectedArea(); - double protectedSoFar = aggLandUse.getProtectedArea(); + double protectedThisTime = landUseItem.getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural(); + double protectedSoFar = aggLandUse.getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural(); aggLandUse.setProtectedArea(protectedSoFar+ protectedThisTime); // Land covers ares diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java index 8e1b123c068232bf7183b1e2ceb2e4a47022fcdc..1ef034c203259022eccc95ccf624871d9bbdc135 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/landuse/LandUseItem.java @@ -34,8 +34,14 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial this.protectedArea = protectedArea; } - public double getProtectedArea(){ - return this.protectedArea; + public double getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural() { + double minOrProtectedA = 0; + + if (ModelConfig.PROTECTED_AREAS_ENABLED) { + double minNatural = getTotalLandCoverArea() * ModelConfig.MIN_NATURAL_RATE; + minOrProtectedA = Math.max(protectedArea, minNatural); + } + return minOrProtectedA; } public Intensity getIntensity(CropType crop) { @@ -144,19 +150,20 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial } } - /** move areas from one land cover to another, return an residual not possible */ - public double moveAreas(LandCoverType toType, LandCoverType fromType, double changeReq) { - - double prevTo = getLandCoverArea(toType); - double prevFrom = getLandCoverArea(fromType); - double actuallyChanged = Math.min(prevFrom, changeReq); - - setLandCoverArea(toType, prevTo + actuallyChanged); - setLandCoverArea(fromType, prevFrom - actuallyChanged); + /** move areas from one land cover to another, return any residual not possible */ + public double moveAreas(LandCoverType toType, LandCoverType fromType, double changeReq) { - return changeReq - actuallyChanged; - } + double prevTo = getLandCoverArea(toType); + double prevFrom = getLandCoverArea(fromType); + double availLC = fromType.isProtectable() ? Math.min(prevFrom, getUnprotectedNatural()) : prevFrom; // if protected can not go past protected area + + double actuallyChanged = Math.min(availLC, changeReq); + + setLandCoverArea(toType, prevTo + actuallyChanged); + setLandCoverArea(fromType, prevFrom - actuallyChanged); + return changeReq - actuallyChanged; + } public double getCropArea(CropType c) { Double d = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND) * getCropFraction(c); @@ -204,33 +211,48 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial return d; } + + /** averages protected areas across land cover types */ + public double getUnprotectedLandCoverArea(LandCoverType c) { + double lcTypeArea = getLandCoverArea(c); + if (c.isProtectable()) { + double unprotectedNaturalFract = getUnprotectedNaturalFract(); + return lcTypeArea * unprotectedNaturalFract; + } + else { + return lcTypeArea; + } + } + + private double getUnprotectedNaturalFract() { + double unprotectedNat = getUnprotectedNatural(); + double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); + double unprotectedFract = (totalNatural > 0) ? unprotectedNat/totalNatural : 0; + return unprotectedFract; + } + + public double getUnprotectedNatural() { + double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); + double minOrProtectedA = getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural(); + double unprotectedNat = Math.max(0, totalNatural - minOrProtectedA); // if we are already using more than is protected then the unprotectedArea is 0 + return unprotectedNat; + } + public double getSuitableLand() { - double totalNatural = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); + double totalUnprotectedNatural = getUnprotectedNatural(); double currentAgri = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.PASTURE) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.CROPLAND); - - double protectedA = ModelConfig.PROTECTED_AREAS_ENABLED ? protectedArea : 0; - double minNatural = (currentAgri+totalNatural) * ModelConfig.MIN_NATURAL_RATE; - double minOrProtectedA = Math.max(protectedA, minNatural); - double unprotectedA = Math.max(0, totalNatural - minOrProtectedA); // if we are already using more than is protected then the unprotectedArea is 0 - - double suitable = currentAgri + unprotectedA; + double suitable = currentAgri + totalUnprotectedNatural; return suitable; } - public double getForestToNaturalFraction() { - double forest = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST) + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); - double natural = forest + getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.OTHER_NATURAL); - double d = forest / natural; - return (Double.isNaN(d) || Double.isInfinite(d)) ? 1.0 : d; - } - public double getForestManagedFraction() { double managed = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.MANAGED_FOREST); double unmanaged = getLandCoverArea(LandCoverType.UNMANAGED_FOREST); double d = managed / (managed + unmanaged); return (Double.isNaN(d) || Double.isInfinite(d)) ? 1.0 : d; } + public CropToDouble getCropChanges(LandUseItem prevAreaAggItem) { CropToDouble changes = new CropToDouble(); @@ -309,4 +331,9 @@ public class LandUseItem implements InterpolatingRasterItem<LandUseItem>, Serial return total; } -} + + @Override + public String toString() { + return "LandUseItem: [landCoverAreas=" + landCoverAreas + ", protectedArea=" + protectedArea + "], suitableLand " + getSuitableLand(); + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java index 9fb3bf6e06f85b5a61c8fda21d23671aa0f17406..4b3c8123c946545fb67ab3d9dbd921ddf6d576cb 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/output/LandUseOutputer.java @@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ public class LandUseOutputer extends AbstractLandUseOutputer { sbData.append(String.format(" %.14f", item.getTotalLandCoverArea())); - sbData.append(String.format(" %.14f", item.getProtectedArea())); + sbData.append(String.format(" %.14f", item.getProtectedAreaIncMinNatural())); for (LandCoverType cover : LandCoverType.values()) { sbData.append(String.format(" %.14f", item.getLandCoverArea(cover))); diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/LandCoverType.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/LandCoverType.java index e6096fecacd5b9f7e49d63a4302878038707b29b..6c0c8428eb59c97872fe94902445c4cb1f478179 100644 --- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/LandCoverType.java +++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/types/LandCoverType.java @@ -2,22 +2,28 @@ package ac.ed.lurg.types; public enum LandCoverType { - MANAGED_FOREST ("managedForest"), - UNMANAGED_FOREST ("unmanagedForest"), - OTHER_NATURAL ("otherNatural"), - CROPLAND ("cropland"), - PASTURE ("pasture"), - BARREN ("barren"), - URBAN("urban"); + MANAGED_FOREST ("managedForest", true), + UNMANAGED_FOREST ("unmanagedForest", true), + OTHER_NATURAL ("otherNatural", true), + CROPLAND ("cropland", false), + PASTURE ("pasture", false), + BARREN ("barren", false), + URBAN("urban", false); private String name; + private boolean isProtectable; - LandCoverType(String name) { + LandCoverType(String name, boolean isProtectable) { this.name = name; + this.isProtectable = isProtectable; } public String getName() { return name; } + + public boolean isProtectable() { + return isProtectable; + } }