From eab29472888bcda03ea540760901b4890133096b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Alexander <peter@blackhillock.co.uk>
Date: Sun, 3 Jul 2016 22:01:56 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Some simplifications
---
GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms | 51 ++++++++++++++++-----------------
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java | 10 +++----
src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java | 11 +++++--
3 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 34 deletions(-)
diff --git a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
index 26fb1bbf..fe074b39 100644
--- a/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
+++ b/GAMS/IntExtOpt.gms
@@ -3,10 +3,10 @@
SET crop(all_types) / wheat, maize, rice, oilcrops, pulses, starchyRoots, pasture /;
SET crop_less_pasture(crop) / wheat, maize, rice, oilcrops, pulses, starchyRoots /;
SET cereal_crop(crop) / wheat, maize, rice /;
- SET non_cereal_crop(crop) / oilcrops, pulses, starchyRoots, pasture /;
+ SET non_cereal_crop(crop) / oilcrops, pulses, starchyRoots, pasture /;
SET feed_crop(crop) / wheat, maize, oilcrops, pasture/;
SET feed_crop_less_pasture(feed_crop) / wheat, maize, oilcrops /;
- SET not_feed_crop(crop) / rice, pulses, starchyRoots /;
+ SET not_feed_crop(crop) / rice, pulses, starchyRoots /;
SET import_crop(all_types) / meat, wheat, maize, rice, oilcrops, pulses, starchyRoots /;
SET location;
@@ -48,25 +48,24 @@ $gdxin
SCALAR unhandledCropArea includes fruit veg forage crops set aside and failed crop / 0.4 /;
previousArea(crop_less_pasture, location) = previousArea(crop_less_pasture, location) * (1.0 - unhandledCropArea);
- PARAMETER feedDM(crop) kg DM per kg of feed the conversion from feed to meat is done in the R animal product index
- / wheat 0.89
- maize 0.7
- oilcrops 0.9
- pasture 1 / ;
-* pasture yield is done in DM terms
+ PARAMETER cropDM(crop) kg DM per kg of feed the conversion from feed to meat is done in the R animal product index
+ / wheat 0.87
+ maize 0.86
+ rice 0.89
+ oilcrops 0.88
+ pulses 0.31
+ starchyRoots 0.21
+ pasture 1 / ;
PARAMETER baseCost(crop) cost per ha before intensity values not including fertiliser or irrigation i.e. seed spray and other. In 1000 $ per ha
- / wheat 1.1
- maize 0.9
- rice 1.1
- oilcrops 0.7
- pulses 0.5
- starchyRoots 4.0
+ / wheat 0.31
+ maize 0.26
+ rice 0.4
+ oilcrops 0.24
+ pulses 0.31
+ starchyRoots 4.64
pasture 0.0 / ;
-
-* wheat 1.4 * 0.223
-* oilcrops 1.4 * 0.169
-
+
VARIABLES
area(crop, location) total area for each crop - Mha
fertI(crop, location) fertilizer intensity for each crop - factor between 0 and 1
@@ -117,7 +116,7 @@ $gdxin
UNIT_ENERGY_EQ(crop, location) .. unitEnergy(crop, location) =E= ( baseCost(crop) +
fertiliserUnitCost * fertI(crop, location) +
irrigCost(location) * irrigMaxRate(crop, location) * irrigI(crop, location) +
- (otherIntensity(crop, location))
+ otherIntensity(crop, location)
) ;
YIELD_EQ(crop, location) .. yield(crop, location) =E= (
@@ -132,17 +131,17 @@ $gdxin
(yieldBoth(crop, location) + yieldNone(crop, location) - yieldFertOnly(crop, location) - yieldIrrigOnly(crop, location)) *
(1 - exp(-fertParam(crop, location)*fertI(crop, location))) * (1 - exp(-irrigParam(crop, location)*irrigI(crop, location)))
- ) * cropAdj(crop) * (1 - exp(-otherIntensity(crop, location)*5));
+ ) * cropAdj(crop) * (1 - exp(-otherIntensity(crop, location)*4));
- NET_SUPPLY_EQ(crop) .. net_supply(crop) =E= sum(location, area(crop, location) * yield(crop, location)) - feedAmount(crop) + importAmount(crop) - exportAmount(crop);
+ NET_SUPPLY_EQ(crop) .. net_supply(crop) =E= (sum(location, area(crop, location) * yield(crop, location)) - feedAmount(crop)) / cropDM(crop) + importAmount(crop) - exportAmount(crop);
- NON_CEREAL_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT(non_cereal_crop) .. net_supply(non_cereal_crop) =G= demand(non_cereal_crop) ;
+ NON_CEREAL_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT(non_cereal_crop) .. net_supply(non_cereal_crop) =G= demand(non_cereal_crop);
CEREAL_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT(cereal_crop) .. net_supply(cereal_crop) =G= demand('cereals') * minDemandPerCereal;
TOTAL_CEREAL_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. sum(cereal_crop, net_supply(cereal_crop)) =G= demand('cereals');
- MEAT_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop, feedDM(feed_crop) * feedAmount(feed_crop)) =G= demand('meat') - importAmount('meat') + exportAmount('meat');
+ MEAT_DEMAND_CONSTRAINT .. meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop, feedAmount(feed_crop)) =G= demand('meat') - importAmount('meat') + exportAmount('meat');
MAX_FERT_INTENSITY_CONSTRAINT(crop, location) .. fertI(crop, location) =L= 1;
MAX_IRRIG_INTENSITY_CONSTRAINT(crop, location) .. irrigI(crop, location) =L= 1;
@@ -157,7 +156,7 @@ $gdxin
PASTURE_IMPORT_CONSTRAINT .. importAmount('pasture') =E= 0;
PASTURE_EXPORT_CONSTRAINT .. exportAmount('pasture') =E= 0;
- MIN_FEED_CONSTRAINT .. sum(feed_crop_less_pasture, feedDM(feed_crop_less_pasture) * feedAmount(feed_crop_less_pasture)) =G= minFeedRate * (demand('meat') - importAmount('meat') + exportAmount('meat'));
+ MIN_FEED_CONSTRAINT .. sum(feed_crop_less_pasture, feedAmount(feed_crop_less_pasture)) =G= minFeedRate * (demand('meat') - importAmount('meat') + exportAmount('meat'));
IRRIGATION_CONSTRAINT(location) .. irrigConstraint(location) =G= sum(crop, irrigMaxRate(crop, location) * irrigI(crop, location) * area(crop, location)) / suitableLandArea(location);
@@ -186,7 +185,7 @@ $gdxin
fertI.L(crop, location) = 0.5;
irrigI.L(crop, location) = 0.5;
- otherIntensity.L(crop, location) = 0.1;
+ otherIntensity.L(crop, location) = 0.5;
importAmount.L(import_crop)$((maxNetImport(import_crop) + minNetImport(import_crop)) gt 0) = (maxNetImport(import_crop) + minNetImport(import_crop)) / 2;
exportAmount.L(import_crop)$((maxNetImport(import_crop) + minNetImport(import_crop)) lt 0) = -(maxNetImport(import_crop) + minNetImport(import_crop)) / 2;
@@ -207,7 +206,7 @@ $gdxin
parameter feedEnergy(all_types);
totalProd(crop) = sum(location, area.l(crop, location) * yield.l(crop, location));
- totalProd('meat') = meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop, feedDM(feed_crop) * feedAmount.l(feed_crop));
+ totalProd('meat') = meatEfficency*sum(feed_crop, feedAmount.l(feed_crop));
totalProdCost(crop) = sum(location, unitEnergy.l(crop, location) * area.l(crop, location));
totalCropland(location) = sum(crop_less_pasture, area.l(crop_less_pasture, location));
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index c0a66513..7bd58e23 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -139,17 +139,17 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.1);
public static final double PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_HARVEST_FRACTION", 0.25);
- public static final double MEAT_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("MEAT_EFFICIENCY", 1.0);
- public static final double IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY", 0.4);
- public static final double LAND_CHANGE_COST = getDoubleProperty("LAND_CHANGE_COST", 2.0);
+ public static final double MEAT_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("MEAT_EFFICIENCY", 1.0); // 'meat' is includes feed conversion ratio already, this is tech. change or similar
+ public static final double IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY = getDoubleProperty("IRRIGIATION_EFFICIENCY", 0.5);
+ public static final double LAND_CHANGE_COST = getDoubleProperty("LAND_CHANGE_COST", 1.0);
public static final double MIN_FEED_RATE = getDoubleProperty("MIN_FEED_RATE", 0.15);
public static final double SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION", 0.15);
public static final double MARKET_LAMBA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBA", 0.3); // controls international market price adjustment rate
public static final double POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT = getDoubleProperty("POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT", 40.0); // in millions, smaller countries are aggregated on a regional basis
- public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.02);
- public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 5.0);
+ public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.01);
+ public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 0.87 * 1.4 * 2); // £900/t N * 1.4$/£ * 2NPK/N
public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = FERTILISER_COST_PER_T * MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;
public static final double TRANSPORT_LOSSES = getDoubleProperty("TRANSPORT_LOSSES", 0.15); // in international trade
public static final double TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("TRADE_BARRIER_FACTOR", 1.3); // price factor in international trade, transport cost and real trade barriers
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 79a51abc..beaf1e07 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -78,8 +78,13 @@ public class ModelMain {
// in first timestep we don't have this info, but ok as constrained to import/export specified amount
prevWorldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
- for (CropType c : CropType.getImportedTypes())
- prevWorldPrices.put(c, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.5));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.WHEAT, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.15));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.MAIZE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.15));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.RICE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.OILCROPS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.PULSES, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.2));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.1));
+ prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.MEAT, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.2));
}
/* run the model */
@@ -336,7 +341,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
// DEBUG code
if (ModelConfig.DEBUG_LIMIT_COUNTRIES) {
- if (!(cc.getName().equals("United States of America") || cc.getName().equals("Chinaxx") || cc.getName().equals("Russian Federationxx") || cc.getName().equals("South Asia_otherxx")) ) {
+ if (!(cc.getName().equals("United States of Americaxxx") || cc.getName().equals("Chinaxx") || cc.getName().equals("Russian Federationxx") || cc.getName().equals("Philippines")) ) {
continue;
}
}
--
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