diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d5a0a65deb0e8a059e374b841f70cbacd3c6cf5d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+package ac.ed.lurg;
+
+import java.io.BufferedWriter;
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.util.Collection;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Map.Entry;
+
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryAgent;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.StockReader;
+import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropToDoubleMap;
+import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
+import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
+
+public class InternationalMarket {
+
+ private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices;
+ private Map<CropType, Double> stockLevel;
+
+ public InternationalMarket() {
+ // in first timestep we don't have this info, but ok as constrained to
+ // import/export specified amount, values based on
+ // http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ for Jun 2010
+ worldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.WHEAT, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.157 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.MAIZE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.152 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.RICE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.182 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.OILCROPS, GlobalPrice.createInitial((0.820 * .4 + 0.314 * .6) * 0.5 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.PULSES, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.1 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.MONOGASTRICS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4 * 0.5 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT)); // quantities is in feed equivalent term (0.4 is weighted average price per feed, and 0.5 accounts for mark-up for additional processing)
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.RUMINANTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.1 * 0.6 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT)); // quantities is in feed equivalent term
+ worldPrices.put(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.04 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
+ stockLevel = getInitialStockLevels();
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> getWorldPrices() {
+ return worldPrices;
+ }
+
+ private Map<CropType, Double> getInitialStockLevels() {
+ Map<CropType, Double> initialStockLevels = new StockReader().read();
+ initialStockLevels.put(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, 0.0);
+ return initialStockLevels;
+ }
+
+ void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<CountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand) {
+ CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
+ CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
+ for (CountryAgent ca : countryAgents) {
+
+ // Get values for world input costs
+ Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsage = ca.getCropUsageData();
+
+ for (Entry<CropType, CropUsageData> entry : cropUsage.entrySet()) {
+ CropType c = entry.getKey();
+ double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getNetImports();
+
+ if (countryNetImports > 0)
+ totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(c, countryNetImports);
+ else
+ totalExportCommodities.incrementValue(c, -countryNetImports);
+ }
+ }
+
+ // energycrops are a special case where demand in global and exogenously specified
+ totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, gen2EcDDemand);
+
+ // Look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
+ for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
+ GlobalPrice prevPrice = worldPrices.get(crop);
+ double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
+ double exports = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) * (1.0 - ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES) : 0.0;
+
+ double previousStockLevel = stockLevel.get(crop);
+ GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exports, (ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE));
+ LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s (imports amount %.0f, exports amount %.0f) to %s ",
+ crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
+ worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
+ double updatedStockLevel = previousStockLevel + exports - imports;
+ stockLevel.put(crop, updatedStockLevel);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks for %s updated from %s to %s ", crop.getGamsName(), previousStockLevel, updatedStockLevel));
+ if (updatedStockLevel < 0)
+ LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks for %s is below zero ", crop.getGamsName(), previousStockLevel));
+ }
+ }
+
+ void writeGlobalMarketFile(Timestep timestep, BufferedWriter outputFile) throws IOException {
+ for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
+ StringBuffer sbData = new StringBuffer();
+ GlobalPrice priceQuantity = worldPrices.get(crop);
+ sbData.append(String.format("%d,%s", timestep.getYear(), crop.getGamsName()));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.1f,%.1f", priceQuantity.getImportAmount(), priceQuantity.getExportAmount()));
+ sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f,%.3f", priceQuantity.getExportPrice(), stockLevel.get(crop)));
+
+ outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
+ outputFile.newLine();
+ }
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
index 37dbdd75d13b438a23ac40197a4886e2213471d7..5b88ff3120bebc079bf130cf5533c68f8e571786 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelMain.java
@@ -12,21 +12,16 @@ import java.nio.file.FileSystems;
import java.nio.file.Files;
import java.nio.file.StandardCopyOption;
import java.util.Collection;
-import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.HashSet;
import java.util.List;
import java.util.Map;
-import java.util.Map.Entry;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountry;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CompositeCountryManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryAgent;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryBoundaryRaster;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.CountryBoundaryReader;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.StockReader;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.TradeManager;
-import ac.ed.lurg.country.gams.GamsRasterOutput;
import ac.ed.lurg.demand.AbstractDemandManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.demand.BaseConsumpManager;
import ac.ed.lurg.demand.DemandManagerFromFile;
@@ -48,7 +43,6 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.RunOffReader;
import ac.ed.lurg.output.LandUseOutputer;
import ac.ed.lurg.output.LpjgOutputer;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CommodityType;
-import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropToDoubleMap;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.LandCoverType;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
@@ -72,9 +66,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
private CompositeCountryManager compositeCountryManager;
private RasterHeaderDetails desiredProjection;
- private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> prevWorldPrices;
- private Map<CropType, Double> prevStockLevel;
- private RasterSet<LandUseItem> prevLandUseRaster;
+ private InternationalMarket internationalMarket;
private IrrigationRasterSet currentIrrigationData;
private RasterSet<LandUseItem> globalLandUseRaster;
private RasterSet<IntegerRasterItem> clusterIdRaster;
@@ -104,22 +96,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
countryAgents = createCountryAgents(compositeCountryManager.getAll());
globalLandUseRaster = new RasterSet<LandUseItem>(desiredProjection);
-
- // in first timestep we don't have this info, but ok as constrained to
- // import/export specified amount, values based on
- // http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ for Jun 2010
- prevWorldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.WHEAT, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.157 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.MAIZE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.152 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.RICE, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.182 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.OILCROPS, GlobalPrice.createInitial((0.820 * .4 + 0.314 * .6) * 0.5 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
-
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.PULSES, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.STARCHY_ROOTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.1 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.MONOGASTRICS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.4 * 0.5 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT)); // quantities is in feed equivalent term (0.4 is weighted average price per feed, and 0.5 accounts for mark-up for additional processing)
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.RUMINANTS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.1 * 0.6 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT)); // quantities is in feed equivalent term
- prevWorldPrices.put(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, GlobalPrice.createInitial(0.04 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT));
- prevStockLevel = getInitialStockLevels();
+ internationalMarket = new InternationalMarket();
}
/* run the model */
@@ -148,8 +125,6 @@ public class ModelMain {
double previousGen2EcDDemand = (timestep.isInitialTimestep() || ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ) ? 0: demandManager.getSecondGenBioenergyDemand(timestep.getPreviousTimestep());
double gen2EcDDemand = demandManager.getSecondGenBioenergyDemand(ModelConfig.IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? new Timestep(1) : timestep);
double gen2Increase = (gen2EcDDemand>previousGen2EcDDemand) ? gen2EcDDemand - previousGen2EcDDemand : 0.0;
- CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
- CropToDoubleMap totalExportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
for (CountryAgent ca : countryAgents) {
@@ -157,19 +132,13 @@ public class ModelMain {
Collection<RasterKey> countryKeys = countryBoundaryRaster.getKeysFor(ca.getCountry());
YieldRaster countryYieldSurfaces = yieldSurfaces.createSubsetForKeys(countryKeys);
RasterSet<IrrigationItem> irrigData = currentIrrigationData.createSubsetForKeys(countryKeys);
-
- GamsRasterOutput result = null;
-
+
// do the optimization
try {
- result = ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, prevWorldPrices, gen2Increase);
+ ca.determineProduction(timestep, countryYieldSurfaces, irrigData, internationalMarket.getWorldPrices(), gen2Increase);
} catch (Exception e) {
LogWriter.printlnError("Exception processing " + ca.getCountry() + " will continue with other countries");
LogWriter.print(e);
- }
-
- if (result == null) {
- LogWriter.printlnError("No results for " + ca.getCountry());
continue;
}
@@ -187,55 +156,21 @@ public class ModelMain {
}
// update global rasters
- globalLandUseRaster.putAll(result.getLandUses());
+ globalLandUseRaster.putAll(ca.getLandUses());
// if first timestep and calibration get the clustering info, which
// doesn't change through time
if (ModelConfig.GENERATE_NEW_YIELD_CLUSTERS && timestep.isInitialTimestep())
clusterIdRaster.putAll(ca.getYieldClusters());
-
- // Get values for world input costs
- Map<CropType, CropUsageData> cropUsage = result.getCropUsageData();
-
- for (Entry<CropType, CropUsageData> entry : cropUsage.entrySet()) {
- CropType c = entry.getKey();
- double countryNetImports = entry.getValue().getNetImports();
-
- if (countryNetImports > 0)
- totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(c, countryNetImports);
- else
- totalExportCommodities.incrementValue(c, -countryNetImports);
- }
- }
-
- // energycrops are a special case where demand in global and exogenously specified
- totalImportCommodities.incrementValue(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, gen2EcDDemand);
-
- // Look at trade balance and adjust appropriately
- for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
- GlobalPrice prevPrice = prevWorldPrices.get(crop);
- double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
- double exports = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) * (1.0 - ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES) : 0.0;
-
- double previousStockLevel = prevStockLevel.get(crop);
- GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exports, (ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE));
- LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s (imports amount %.0f, exports amount %.0f) to %s ",
- crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, imports, exports, adjustedPrice));
- prevWorldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
- double updatedStockLevel = previousStockLevel + exports - imports;
- prevStockLevel.put(crop, updatedStockLevel);
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks for %s updated from %s to %s ", crop.getGamsName(), previousStockLevel, updatedStockLevel));
- if (updatedStockLevel < 0)
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks for %s is below zero ", crop.getGamsName(), previousStockLevel));
}
+
+ internationalMarket.determineInternationalTrade(countryAgents, gen2EcDDemand);
// output results
outputTimestepResults(timestep, globalLandUseRaster, yieldSurfaces);
-
- // keep last to allow interpolation
- prevLandUseRaster = globalLandUseRaster;
}
+
private BufferedWriter getFileWriter(Timestep timestep, String file, String columnHeadings) throws IOException {
if (timestep.isInitialTimestep()) {
FileWriter fstream = new FileWriter(file, false);
@@ -276,20 +211,8 @@ public class ModelMain {
private void writeGlobalMarketFile(Timestep timestep) {
try {
- StringBuffer sbHeadings = new StringBuffer(
- "Year,Crop,Imports (Mt),Exports (Mt),New export price, Stock Levels (Mt)");
- BufferedWriter outputFile = getFileWriter(timestep, ModelConfig.PRICES_OUTPUT_FILE, sbHeadings.toString());
-
- for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
- StringBuffer sbData = new StringBuffer();
- sbData.append(String.format("%d,%s", timestep.getYear(), crop.getGamsName()));
- sbData.append(String.format(",%.1f,%.1f", prevWorldPrices.get(crop).getImportAmount(), prevWorldPrices.get(crop).getExportAmount()));
- sbData.append(String.format(",%.3f,%.3f", prevWorldPrices.get(crop).getExportPrice(), prevStockLevel.get(crop)));
-
- outputFile.write(sbData.toString());
- outputFile.newLine();
- }
-
+ BufferedWriter outputFile = getFileWriter(timestep, ModelConfig.PRICES_OUTPUT_FILE, "Year,Crop,Imports (Mt),Exports (Mt),New export price, Stock Levels (Mt)");
+ internationalMarket.writeGlobalMarketFile(timestep, outputFile);
outputFile.close();
} catch (IOException e) {
LogWriter.print(e);
@@ -298,8 +221,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
private void writeDemandFile(Timestep timestep) {
try {
- StringBuffer sbHeadings = new StringBuffer("Year,Commodity,Amount (Mt)");
- BufferedWriter outputFile = getFileWriter(timestep, ModelConfig.DEMAND_OUTPUT_FILE, sbHeadings.toString());
+ BufferedWriter outputFile = getFileWriter(timestep, ModelConfig.DEMAND_OUTPUT_FILE, "Year,Commodity,Amount (Mt)");
for (CommodityType comm : CommodityType.getAllItems()) {
double demandAmount = 0;
@@ -346,7 +268,7 @@ public class ModelMain {
return new LandUseItem();
}
};
- intermediateLandUse.setup(prevLandUseRaster, landUseRaster, timestep.getPreviousTimestep().getYear(), timestep.getYear(), outputYear);
+ intermediateLandUse.setup(globalLandUseRaster, landUseRaster, timestep.getPreviousTimestep().getYear(), timestep.getYear(), outputYear);
landUseToOutput = intermediateLandUse;
}
@@ -560,10 +482,4 @@ public class ModelMain {
currentIrrigationData.updateIrrigConstraints(timestep);
}
}
-
- private Map<CropType, Double> getInitialStockLevels() {
- Map<CropType, Double> initialStockLevels = new StockReader().read();
- initialStockLevels.put(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, 0.0);
- return initialStockLevels;
- }
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
index f91e507a73f4fc23fe0dbf0440a82c20a29a4ae2..541ff4abcba9283810062fde74c737e47d928237 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/CountryAgent.java
@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return result;
}
- return null;
+ throw new RuntimeException("Skipping optimisation of country " + country);
}
public Map<CommodityType, Double> getCurrentProjectedDemand() {
@@ -206,4 +206,12 @@ public class CountryAgent {
return countryPrices;
}
+
+ public RasterSet<LandUseItem> getLandUses() {
+ return previousGamsRasterOutput.getLandUses();
+ }
+
+ public Map<CropType, CropUsageData> getCropUsageData() {
+ return previousGamsRasterOutput.getCropUsageData();
+ }
}