diff --git a/data/global_stocks.csv b/data/global_stocks.csv
index 69c06771186276afb2943d05d27c67aede01dff5..439a5d4764adc1a68131ed95de3bf2a2afb550cf 100644
--- a/data/global_stocks.csv
+++ b/data/global_stocks.csv
@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
-plumCropItem,V1
-FruitVeg,182.092751337307
-WheatBarleyOats,879.537641313273
-Pulses,46.532195
-Starchy Roots,410.796684630225
-Oilcrops,378.961539547602
-MaizeMilletSorghum,810.753713560517
-Sugar,1484.01363920056
-Rice (Paddy Equivalent),439.184612481259
-Ruminants,412.1217514
-Monogastrics,45.6726812
+plumCropItem,V1
+FruitVeg,182.092751337307
+WheatBarleyOats,879.537641313273
+Pulses,46.532195
+Starchy Roots,410.796684630225
+Oilcrops,378.961539547602
+MaizeMilletSorghum,810.753713560517
+Sugar,1484.01363920056
+Rice (Paddy Equivalent),439.184612481259
+Ruminants,412.1217514
+Monogastrics,45.6726812
+Energy crops,20
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/scripts/runPlum.sh b/scripts/runPlum.sh
index c2983c97ccb93882a752ccd6ad8704fa28ad48ea..2fcb597ed6245b3d8dc557bb10db939d2ee2e6a1 100755
--- a/scripts/runPlum.sh
+++ b/scripts/runPlum.sh
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ fi
cd $scenariodir
echo "starting"
-runcmd="java -Xmx1G -XX:+PrintGC -classpath $GAMSPATH/apifiles/Java/api/GAMSJavaAPI.jar:$classesdir -DBUILDVER=$buildver -DCONFIG_FILE=$scenariodir/config.properties ac.ed.lurg.ModelMain"
+runcmd="java -Xmx2G -XX:+PrintGC -classpath $GAMSPATH/apifiles/Java/api/GAMSJavaAPI.jar:$classesdir -DBUILDVER=$buildver -DCONFIG_FILE=$scenariodir/config.properties ac.ed.lurg.ModelMain"
echo $runcmd
$runcmd
echo "finished"
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
index a34e824cbf79fdd142999e43cba2e2deb50a5846..e2c4d25933363c8013050af2168cb0599b02b3ea 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/InternationalMarket.java
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import java.util.Map.Entry;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.AbstractCountryAgent;
import ac.ed.lurg.country.GlobalPrice;
+import ac.ed.lurg.country.StockReader;
import ac.ed.lurg.landuse.CropUsageData;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropToDoubleMap;
import ac.ed.lurg.types.CropType;
@@ -19,11 +20,11 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
private Map<CropType, GlobalPrice> worldPrices = new HashMap<CropType, GlobalPrice>();
public InternationalMarket() {
- //Map<CropType, Double> stockLevel = getInitialStockLevels();
+ Map<CropType, Double> stockLevel = getInitialStockLevels();
for (CropType crop : CropType.getImportedTypes()) {
- //Double stock = stockLevel.get(crop);
- worldPrices.put(crop, GlobalPrice.createInitial(crop.getInitialPrice()));
+ Double initialStock = stockLevel.get(crop);
+ worldPrices.put(crop, GlobalPrice.createInitial(crop.getInitialPrice(), initialStock));
}
}
@@ -31,11 +32,11 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
return worldPrices;
}
-/* private Map<CropType, Double> getInitialStockLevels() {
+ private Map<CropType, Double> getInitialStockLevels() {
Map<CropType, Double> initialStockLevels = new StockReader().read();
initialStockLevels.put(CropType.ENERGY_CROPS, 0.0);
return initialStockLevels;
- } */
+ }
void determineInternationalTrade(Collection<AbstractCountryAgent> countryAgents, double gen2EcDDemand, Timestep timestep) {
CropToDoubleMap totalImportCommodities = new CropToDoubleMap();
@@ -68,9 +69,12 @@ public class InternationalMarket {
GlobalPrice prevPrice = worldPrices.get(crop);
double imports = totalImportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalImportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
double exportsBeforeTransportLosses = totalExportCommodities.containsKey(crop) ? totalExportCommodities.get(crop) : 0.0;
- LogWriter.print("Updating " + crop.getGamsName() + " prices : ");
+ LogWriter.println(timestep.getYear() + " Updating " + crop.getGamsName() + " prices");
GlobalPrice adjustedPrice = prevPrice.createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, timestep, totalProduction.get(crop));
LogWriter.println( String.format("Price for %s updated from %s to %s \n", crop.getGamsName(), prevPrice, adjustedPrice));
+ if (adjustedPrice.getStockLevel() < 0)
+ LogWriter.println("Global stocks are below zero" + crop.getGamsName() + ", " + timestep.getYear());
+
worldPrices.put(crop, adjustedPrice);
}
}
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
index 010dab2061e2a6a997c8afdbb57db3050f003adf..28ac95a6469e1fd87b15e46466b184db05204cbe 100755
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java
@@ -209,7 +209,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double INITAL_PRICE_MONOGASTRICS = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_MONOGASTRICS", 0.4 * 0.5 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT); // quantities is in feed equivalent term (0.4 is weighted average price per feed, and 0.5 accounts for mark-up for additional processing)
public static final double INITAL_PRICE_RUMINANTS = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_RUMINANTS", 0.1 * 0.6 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT); // quantities is in feed equivalent term
public static final double INITAL_PRICE_ENERGYCROPS = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_ENERGYCROPS", 0.04 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT);
- public static final double INITAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG", 0.3 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT);
+ public static final double INITAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_FRUITVEG", 0.1 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT);
public static final double INITAL_PRICE_SUGAR = getDoubleProperty("INITAL_PRICE_SUGAR", 0.02 * ModelConfig.INITIAL_PRICE_SHIFT);
// These are initial demand system prices in 2000 kcal terms
@@ -269,7 +269,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final int BASE_YEAR = getIntProperty("BASE_YEAR", 2010);
// Import export limits
- public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.02);
+ public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.05);
public static final double MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE*TIMESTEP_SIZE);
// Fertiliser application rates in kg/ha
@@ -344,7 +344,8 @@ public class ModelConfig {
public static final double MARKET_LAMBA = getDoubleProperty("MARKET_LAMBA", 0.4); // controls international market price adjustment rate
public static final boolean PRICE_UPDATE_BY_MARKET_IMBALANCE = getBooleanProperty("PRICE_UPDATE_BY_MARKET_IMBALANCE", false);;
- public static final double STOCK_TARGET_RATE = getDoubleProperty("STOCK_TARGET_RATE", 0.05);
+ public static final double MAX_PRICE_INCREASE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_PRICE_INCREASE", 1.5);
+ public static final double MAX_PRICE_DECREASE = getDoubleProperty("MAX_PRICE_DECREASE", .75);
public static final int DEMAND_RECALC_MAX_ITERATIONS = getIntProperty("DEMAND_RECALC_MAX_ITERATIONS", 0); // 0 is original behaviour
public static final double POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT = getDoubleProperty("POPULATION_AGGREG_LIMIT", 30.0); // in millions, smaller countries are aggregated on a regional basis
diff --git a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
index b4b30601ee138bd2df1739fc527ab322b41aead8..181320b5c295a15ceb9ff95a39651e45e296c69c 100644
--- a/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
+++ b/src/ac/ed/lurg/country/GlobalPrice.java
@@ -6,13 +6,15 @@ import ac.ed.lurg.types.Parameter;
import ac.ed.lurg.utils.LogWriter;
public class GlobalPrice {
+ private int timestepId;
private double exportPrice;
private double importAmount;
private double exportAmountBeforeLoss;
private double transportLosses;
private double stockLevel;
- private GlobalPrice(double exportPrice, double stockLevel, double importAmount, double exportAmountBeforeLoss, double transportLosses) {
+ private GlobalPrice(int timestepId, double exportPrice, double stockLevel, double importAmount, double exportAmountBeforeLoss, double transportLosses) {
+ this.timestepId = timestepId;
this.exportPrice = exportPrice;
this.stockLevel = stockLevel;
this.importAmount = importAmount;
@@ -20,8 +22,8 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
this.transportLosses = transportLosses;
}
- public static GlobalPrice createInitial(double exportPrice) {
- return new GlobalPrice(exportPrice, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN);
+ public static GlobalPrice createInitial(double exportPrice, double intitalStock) {
+ return new GlobalPrice(ModelConfig.START_TIMESTEP-1, exportPrice, intitalStock, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN);
}
public double getExportPrice(){
@@ -35,13 +37,11 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
public double getCountryImportPrice(double countryTradeBarrier, Timestep timestep) {
int currentYear = timestep.getYear();
-
double tradeBarrierMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE)? ModelConfig.TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER: ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRADE_BARRIER_MULTIPLIER, currentYear);
double transportLossesRate =(!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, currentYear);
double transportCosts = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_COST : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_COST, currentYear);
- double importPrice = exportPrice * (1 + transportCosts) * (1.0 + countryTradeBarrier*tradeBarrierMultiplier)
- / (1.0 - transportLossesRate);
+ double importPrice = exportPrice * (1 + transportCosts) * (1.0 + countryTradeBarrier*tradeBarrierMultiplier) / (1.0 - transportLossesRate);
return importPrice;
}
@@ -61,46 +61,48 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
return transportLosses;
}
- public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double imports, double exportsBeforeTransportLosses, Timestep timestep, double production) {
-
- if (Double.isNaN(stockLevel))
- stockLevel = ModelConfig.STOCK_TARGET_RATE * production; // set stock initially to target level, this is pretty horrible and should really be done on construction but don't easily have production value at that point
+ public GlobalPrice createWithUpdatedMarketPrices(double newImports, double newExportAmountBeforeLoss, Timestep timestep, double production) {
- double transportLossRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, timestep.getYear());
- double transportLosses = exportsBeforeTransportLosses * transportLossRate;
- double exportsAfterTransportLosses = exportsBeforeTransportLosses - transportLosses;
-
- if (imports > 0 || exportsAfterTransportLosses > 0) {
- double updatedStock = stockLevel + exportsBeforeTransportLosses - transportLosses - imports;
- LogWriter.println(String.format(" global stocks from %.2f to %.2f", stockLevel, updatedStock));
- if (updatedStock < 0)
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Global stocks are below zero"));
+ if (newImports > 0 || newExportAmountBeforeLoss > 0) {
+ double oldDiff = timestep.getTimestep() != timestepId ? 0.0 : exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount; // if recomputing for same year need to back our previous adjustment
+ double transportLossRate = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE) ? ModelConfig.TRANSPORT_LOSSES : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.TRANSPORT_LOSSES, timestep.getYear());
+ double newTransportLosses = newExportAmountBeforeLoss * transportLossRate;
+ double stockChange = newExportAmountBeforeLoss - newTransportLosses - newImports - oldDiff;
+ double updatedStock = stockLevel + stockChange;
+
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(" imports %.2f, exports %.2f", newImports, newExportAmountBeforeLoss - newTransportLosses));
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(" updatedStock %.2f, previous %.2f (last timestep %.2f), stockChange %.2f, oldDiff %.2f", updatedStock, stockLevel, stockLevel-oldDiff, stockChange, oldDiff));
- double newPrice, adjustment;
+ double adjustment;
double financialSpeculationMultiplier = (!ModelConfig.SHOCKS_POSSIBLE)? 1.0 : ModelConfig.getParameter(Parameter.FINANCIAL_SPECULATION_MULTIPLIER,timestep.getYear());
if (!ModelConfig.MARKET_ADJ_PRICE) {
adjustment = 1;
}
else if (ModelConfig.PRICE_UPDATE_BY_MARKET_IMBALANCE) {
- double ratio = (imports-exportsAfterTransportLosses)/(imports-exportsAfterTransportLosses+production);
- adjustment = Math.exp(ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update market imbalance: adjustment= %s, imports %.1f, exports %.1f", adjustment, imports, getExportsAfterTransportLosses()));
+ double ratio = stockChange/(production-stockChange);
+ adjustment = Math.exp(-ratio * ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA);
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(" initally imbalance ratio= %.4f", ratio));
}
else {
- double stockTarget = ModelConfig.STOCK_TARGET_RATE * production;
- double ratio = (stockTarget - updatedStock) / stockTarget;
+ if (stockChange >= 0) // stock increasing, so decrease price. stockChange is positive so adjustment < 1
+ adjustment = 1 - ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA * stockChange/production;
+ else // stock decreasing, so increase price. stockChange is negative so adjustment > 1
+ adjustment = 1 - ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA * stockChange/Math.max(0, stockLevel);
- if (Math.abs(ratio) >= 1)
- adjustment = 10; // default to max change
- else
- adjustment = 1 + ModelConfig.MARKET_LAMBA * ratio/(1 - ratio*ratio);
-
- LogWriter.println(String.format("Price update from stock target: adjustment= %s, ratio= %s", adjustment, ratio));
+ LogWriter.print(String.format(" initally adjustment= %.4f", adjustment));
}
- newPrice = exportPrice * adjustment * financialSpeculationMultiplier;
- return new GlobalPrice(newPrice, updatedStock, imports, exportsBeforeTransportLosses, transportLosses);
+ if (adjustment < ModelConfig.MAX_PRICE_DECREASE)
+ adjustment = ModelConfig.MAX_PRICE_DECREASE; // default to max down change
+
+ if (adjustment > ModelConfig.MAX_PRICE_INCREASE)
+ adjustment = ModelConfig.MAX_PRICE_INCREASE; // default to max up change
+
+ LogWriter.println(String.format(", after limit %.4f", adjustment));
+
+ double newPrice = exportPrice * adjustment * financialSpeculationMultiplier;
+ return new GlobalPrice(timestep.getTimestep(), newPrice, updatedStock, newImports, newExportAmountBeforeLoss, newTransportLosses);
}
else {
LogWriter.printlnError(String.format("Price for not updated (still %s), as no imports and no exports for it", exportPrice));
@@ -116,4 +118,4 @@ public class GlobalPrice {
public double getStockChange() {
return exportAmountBeforeLoss - transportLosses - importAmount;
}
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file