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Commit 1f824d71 authored by R0slyn's avatar R0slyn
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Fixes to yield shock generation.

parent b0e9aab2
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......@@ -3,46 +3,48 @@ require(raster)
generateShocksTable = function(dt, startYear, endYear, shockFrequencyMultiplier,shockMagnitudeMultiplier, makeMapFiles){
shockTable = NULL
cotterellRegions =fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"cotterellRegions.csv"), header=TRUE)
noCountriesTab = data.table(table(cotterellRegions[,list(Region)]))[,list(Region=V1,nCountries = N)]
ratesTab = merge(data.table(table(dt[,list(Year,Region,Sector)])),noCountriesTab, by=c('Region'))
#Shock rate is number of shocks occurring in a region in a given year, shock rate scaled according to number of countries in a region
ratesTab[,shockRate := N/nCountries]
#probability of getting a shock rate of value x in year y
shockProbs = data.table(table(ratesTab[N != 0,list(Region,Sector,shockRate)]))[,list(Region, Sector,shockRate, prob=N*shockFrequencyMultiplier/53)] #53 as that is number of years in historic time period
shockProbs = rbind(shockProbs,shockProbs[,list(shockRate=0,prob=1-sum(prob)), by=c('Region','Sector')])[prob != 0]
for(cropType in unique(dt$Sector)){
#magnitudes of shocks take from global distribution per sector at a country level
sectorHist = hist(dt[Sector==cropType,PropMagnitude],freq=FALSE)
if(shockFrequencyMultiplier != 0 & shockMagnitudeMultiplier != 0){
cotterellRegions =fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"cotterellRegions.csv"), header=TRUE)
noCountriesTab = data.table(table(cotterellRegions[,list(Region)]))[,list(Region=V1,nCountries = N)]
for(region in unique(dt$Region)){
#calculate years where shocks could happen using probability of shock occurring
va = data.table(Year=seq(startYear,endYear,1),
shockRate=sample(shockProbs[Sector==cropType & Region==region,as.numeric(shockRate)],size=endYear-startYear+1, replace=TRUE,
prob=shockProbs[Sector==cropType & Region==region,prob]))[shockRate > 0]
if(nrow(va)>0){
#calculate for above years how many countries to shock
va[,numberOfCountriesToShock := sum(rbinom(noCountriesTab[Region==region,nCountries],size=1,prob=shockRate))]
va=va[numberOfCountriesToShock>0]
for(year in va[,unique(Year)]){
#randomly choose countries within the region to shock and by what magnitude
bins=with(sectorHist,sample(length(mids),va[Year==year,numberOfCountriesToShock],p=density,replace=TRUE))
shockMagnitudes=runif(length(bins),sectorHist$breaks[bins],sectorHist$breaks[bins+1])*shockMagnitudeMultiplier
countries = sample(cotterellRegions[Region==region, Country],va[Year==year,numberOfCountriesToShock])
shockTable=rbind(shockTable, data.table(year,mapFilename=countries,crop=cropType,shockFactor=shockMagnitudes, region))
}
}
ratesTab = merge(data.table(table(dt[,list(Year,Region,Sector)])),noCountriesTab, by=c('Region'))
#Shock rate is number of shocks occurring in a region in a given year, shock rate scaled according to number of countries in a region
ratesTab[,shockRate := N/nCountries]
#probability of getting a shock rate of value x in year y
shockProbs = data.table(table(ratesTab[N != 0,list(Region,Sector,shockRate)]))[,list(Region, Sector,shockRate, prob=N*shockFrequencyMultiplier/53)] #53 as that is number of years in historic time period
shockProbs = rbind(shockProbs,shockProbs[,list(shockRate=0,prob=1-sum(prob)), by=c('Region','Sector')])[prob != 0]
for(cropType in unique(dt$Sector)){
#magnitudes of shocks take from global distribution per sector at a country level
sectorHist = hist(dt[Sector==cropType,PropMagnitude],freq=FALSE)
for(region in unique(dt$Region)){
#calculate years where shocks could happen using probability of shock occurring
va = data.table(Year=seq(startYear,endYear,1),
shockRate=sample(shockProbs[Sector==cropType & Region==region,as.numeric(shockRate)],size=endYear-startYear+1, replace=TRUE,
prob=shockProbs[Sector==cropType & Region==region,prob]))[shockRate > 0]
if(nrow(va)>0){
#calculate for above years how many countries to shock
va[,numberOfCountriesToShock := sum(rbinom(noCountriesTab[Region==region,nCountries],size=1,prob=shockRate))]
va=va[numberOfCountriesToShock>0]
for(year in va[,unique(Year)]){
#randomly choose countries within the region to shock and by what magnitude
bins=with(sectorHist,sample(length(mids),va[Year==year,numberOfCountriesToShock],p=density,replace=TRUE))
shockMagnitudes=runif(length(bins),sectorHist$breaks[bins],sectorHist$breaks[bins+1])*shockMagnitudeMultiplier
countries = sample(cotterellRegions[Region==region, Country],va[Year==year,numberOfCountriesToShock])
shockTable=rbind(shockTable, data.table(year,mapFilename=countries,crop=cropType,shockFactor=shockMagnitudes, region))
}
}
}
}
if (makeMapFiles){
makeMaps(shockTable, outputDir)
}
shockTable[,mapFilename := paste0(mapFilename,'.asc')]
}
if (makeMapFiles){
makeMaps(shockTable, outputDir)
}
shockTable[,mapFilename := paste0(mapFilename,'.asc')]
shockTable
}
......@@ -75,51 +77,58 @@ scenarioTable = fread(file.path(plumDirectory,ensembleFile))
singleYieldShockFile = commandArgs(trailingOnly = TRUE)[2]
print(singleYieldShockFile)
if("YIELD_SHOCKS_MULTIPLIER" %in% colnames(scenarioTable)){
if("SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER" %in% colnames(scenarioTable)){
if (singleYieldShockFile == 1){
shockFreqMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[, SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER])
shockMagMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[, SHOCKS_MAGNITUDE_MULTIPLIER])
shockFreqMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[, SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER])
shockMagMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[, SHOCKS_MAGNITUDE_MULTIPLIER])
if(length(shockFreqMultiplier) > 1 | length(shockMagMultiplier) > 1){
print("A Yield shock multiplier parameter has more than one value in scenario table, using only the first values")
}
ensembleShockTable=generateShocksTable(dt=fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"historicShocks.csv")), startYear=2010, endYear=2100,
shockFrequencyMultiplier=shockFreqMultiplier, shockMagnitudeMultiplier=shockMagMultiplier,makeMapFiles=TRUE)
if(length(shockFreqMultiplier) > 1 | length(shockMagMultiplier) > 1){
print("A Yield shock multiplier is different in ensemble file, using only the first values")
}
ensembleShockTable=generateShocksTable(dt=fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"historicShocks.csv")), startYear=2010, endYear=2100,
shockFrequencyMultiplier=shockFreqMultiplier, shockMagnitudeMultiplier=shockMagMultiplier,makeMapFiles=TRUE)
}
for(ensemble in unique(scenarioTable[,Ensemble])){
if (singleYieldShockFile != 1){
shockFreqMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[Ensemble==ensemble, SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER])
shockMagMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[Ensemble==ensemble, SHOCKS_MAGNITUDE_MULTIPLIER])
if(length(shockFreqMultiplier) > 1 | length(shockMagMultiplier) > 1){
print("A Yield shock multiplier is different in ensemble file, using only the first values")
}
ensembleShockTable=generateShocksTable(dt=fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"historicShocks.csv")), startYear=2010, endYear=2100,
shockFrequencyMultiplier=shockFreqMultiplier, shockMagnitudeMultiplier=shockMagMultiplier,makeMapFiles=TRUE)
}
if (singleYieldShockFile != 1){
shockFreqMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[Ensemble==ensemble, SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER])
shockMagMultiplier = unique(scenarioTable[Ensemble==ensemble, SHOCKS_MAGNITUDE_MULTIPLIER])
if(length(shockFreqMultiplier) > 1 | length(shockMagMultiplier) > 1){
print("A Yield shock multiplier parameter is different within a single ensemble, using only the first values")
}
ensembleShockTable=generateShocksTable(dt=fread(file.path(baseDataDir,"historicShocks.csv")), startYear=2010, endYear=2100,
shockFrequencyMultiplier=shockFreqMultiplier, shockMagnitudeMultiplier=shockMagMultiplier,makeMapFiles=TRUE)
}
for(scenario in scenarioTable[Ensemble==ensemble, Scenario]){
ensDir=file.path(ensemble,scenario)
if (dir.exists(file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir))) {
print(paste(ensDir, "exists. Creating yield shock file"))
write.csv(ensembleShockTable,file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir,"yieldshocks.csv"), row.names=FALSE, quote=FALSE)
if(!is.null(ensembleShockTable)){
print(paste(ensDir, "exists. Creating yield shock file"))
write.csv(ensembleShockTable,file.path(baseOutputDir,ensDir,"yieldshocks.csv"), row.names=FALSE, quote=FALSE)
}
else{
print(paste0("SHOCKS_FREQUENCY_MULTIPLIER or SHOCKS_MAGNITUDE_MULTIPLIER is set to zero, not creating yield shock files for ", ensemble))
}
}
else{
print(paste(ensDir, "does not exist. Stopping"))
}
}
}
}
}else{
print(paste("No value for yield shock multiplier, not creating yieldShocks.csv file for ",scenarioTable[i,Ensemble],scenarioTable[i,Scenario]))
} else{
print("No value for shock frequency multiplier in scenario table, not creating yieldShock files")
}
......@@ -127,3 +136,4 @@ if("YIELD_SHOCKS_MULTIPLIER" %in% colnames(scenarioTable)){
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