Future and hist calibration

data/bioenergy_futures_BAU.csv

@@ -23,21 +23,21 @@ PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|1st generation,million t DM/yr,2100
 PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2000,0
 PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2005,0
 PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2010,0
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2015,45
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2020,114
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2025,249
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2030,509
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2035,856
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2040,1241
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2045,1659
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2050,1927
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2055,1934
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2060,1797
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2065,1599
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2070,1591
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2075,1798
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2080,1913
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2085,1920
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2090,1962
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2095,1995
-PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2100,2014
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2015,90
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2020,230
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2025,500
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2030,1000
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2035,1700
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2040,2500
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2045,2700
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2050,2900
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2055,2950
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2060,2800
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2065,3000
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2070,3100
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2075,3300
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2080,3700
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2085,3800
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2090,3900
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2095,4000
+PLUM,BAU,World,Agricultural Demand|Bioenergy|2nd generation,million t DM/yr,2100,4000

src/ac/ed/lurg/ModelConfig.java

@@ -182,7 +182,7 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 	public static final int BASE_YEAR = getIntProperty("BASE_YEAR", 2010);
 
 	// Import export limits
-	public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.04);
+	public static final double ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", 0.02);
 	public static final double MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE = IS_CALIBRATION_RUN ? 0.0 : getDoubleProperty("MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE", ANNUAL_MAX_IMPORT_CHANGE*TIMESTEP_SIZE);
 
 	// Fertiliser application rates in kg/ha
@@ -216,16 +216,16 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 	public static final double CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR", 1.0);
 	public static final double AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR", 1.0);
 
-	public static final double CROP_INCREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("CROP_INCREASE_COST", 0.2 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
+	public static final double CROP_INCREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("CROP_INCREASE_COST", 0.1 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
 	public static final double PASTURE_DECREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_DECREASE_COST", LAND_CHANGE_COST);
-	public static final double CROP_DECREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("CROP_DECREASE_COST", 3.5 * LAND_CHANGE_COST);
-	public static final double PASTURE_INCREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_INCREASE_COST", 0.2 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
-	public static final double AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE = getDoubleProperty("AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE", 0.08 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
-	public static final double AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST = getDoubleProperty("AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST", LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
+	public static final double CROP_DECREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("CROP_DECREASE_COST", 1.75 * LAND_CHANGE_COST);
+	public static final double PASTURE_INCREASE_COST = getDoubleProperty("PASTURE_INCREASE_COST", 0.1 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * CROP_TO_PASTURE_COST_FACTOR * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
+	public static final double AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE = getDoubleProperty("AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE", 0.04 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
+	public static final double AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST = getDoubleProperty("AGRI_EXPANSION_COST_BASE_MANAGED_FOREST", 0.5 * LAND_CHANGE_COST * AGRI_LAND_EXPANSION_COST_FACTOR);
 
 	public static final double SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION = getDoubleProperty("SEED_AND_WASTE_FRACTION", 0.1);  
 
-	public static final double TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.0);
+	public static final double TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE = getDoubleProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE", 0.002);
 	public static final int TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_START_STEP = getIntProperty("TECHNOLOGY_CHANGE_START_STEP", 0);
 	
 	public static final boolean USE_BIOENERGY_TRAJECTORY = getBooleanProperty("USE_BIOENERGY_TRAJECTORY", false);  // false is the old style, i.e. BIOENERGY_CHANGE_ANNUAL_RATE, BIOENERGY_CHANGE_START_YEAR and BIOENERGY_CHANGE_END_YEAR
@@ -246,10 +246,10 @@ public class ModelConfig {
 
 	public static final double UNHANDLED_CROP_AREA = getDoubleProperty("UNHANDLED_CROP_AREA", 0.3);  // includes fruit veg forage crops set aside and failed crop
 	
-	public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 0.4);
+	public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_COST = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_COST", 0.6);
 	public static final double OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM = getDoubleProperty("OTHER_INTENSITY_PARAM", 3.22);
 
-	public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.0004);
+	public static final double IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR = getDoubleProperty("IRRIG_COST_SCALE_FACTOR", 0.0005);
 	public static final double FERTILISER_COST_PER_T = getDoubleProperty("FERTILISER_COST_PER_T", 1.8); // $500/t, 18% N/t
 	public static final double FERTILISER_MAX_COST = FERTILISER_COST_PER_T * MAX_FERT_AMOUNT/1000;